DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: Saturday EPL Picks

DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: Saturday EPL Picks

This article is part of our DraftKings Fantasy Soccer series.

Happy Halloween and welcome to Matchday 11 of the 2015/2016 Premier League season. This article is to guide you to an optimal squad for your $50,000 DraftKings salary focusing on the contests starting at 11:00 a.m. EDT because it accompanies the big GPPs.

The following games are included: 



Home (win odds) (draw odds) Away (win odds)
Crystal Palace (13/5) 12/5 Manchester United (11/10)
Manchester City (1/4) 5/1 Norwich City (11/1)
Newcastle (6/4) 23/10 Stoke (19/10)
Swansea City (4/1) 13/5 Arsenal (3/4)
Watford (6/4) 9/4 West Ham (19/10)
West Brom (9/5) 12/5 Leicester City (6/4)

Odds from PaddyPower.com as of 12:00 a.m. EDT, Oct. 30

As you may (or may not) have heard, big changes are upon us DFS soccer players. DraftKings has adapted an entirely new scoring model and lineup model. There are now 11, yes 11, positions to utilize: 1 goalkeeper, 3 defenders, 3 midfielders, 2 forwards and 2 utilities. Players will now accumulate points as follows:

  • Goal = +10 PTs
  • Assist = +6 PTs
  • Shot = +1 PTs
  • Shot on Goal = +1 PTs
  • Crosses = +1 PTs (via corner kick, open play, and set pieces)
  • Fouls Drawn = +1 PTs
  • Fouls Conceded = -0.5 PTs
  • Tackle Won = +1 PTs
  • Pass Intercepted (D,M,F) = +0.5 PTs
  • Yellow Card = -1 PTs
  • Red Card = -3 PTs
  • Penalty Kick Miss = -5 PTs
  • Saves (GK) = +2 PTs
  • Goal Conceded (GK) = -2 PTs
  • Clean Sheet (GK) = +5 PTs
  • Clean Sheet (D) = +3 PTs
  • Win (GK) = +5 PTs
  • Penalty Kick Save (GK) = +3 PTs
In addition to the lineup and scoring adjustments, DraftKings is (with great applause from me) now using OPTA as its stats provider. This should lead to much better live scoring, as every major soccer stats provider uses OPTA, so our research will now accurately correlate with the actual scoring. Here are a few takeaways from studying the new scoring system and prices:

1. In cash games, pay up for your midfield. High priced midfielders offer a MUCH higher floor than similarly priced forwards. This isn't an entirely new concept, but the new scoring is much kinder to midfielders than forwards.

2. Goals are still king, but not quite as much as they used to be. Goals are still the top point accumulator but with the additional scoring categories there will be more points without goals being scored, thus decreasing (even if slightly) the weight of goals.

3. Hello corner takers! Getting a point for every cross from a corner gives players in that role a huge bump.

4. It's not fullback-only at defense anymore, though they are still typically the best options. Fouls conceded and yellow card penalties can be quite punishing for centerbacks with all the dirty work they do.

5. Clean Sheets are more valuable than ever. Basically a goal conceded is -7 for your goalkeeper now as you lose the +5 clean sheet bonus (there is no bonus for 1 goal allowed anymore) and are deducted the -2 for a goal conceded. The impact is less dramatic for defenders, but getting one that will produce away from just the defensive bonus will be more important than ever.

As always, step 1 in building a good lineup: make sure your players are starting. There is a bit of guesswork in projecting lineups until they are actually announced, and all recommendations and projections are subject to change based on this. All said, be sure to check the lineups page approximately one hour before kickoff.

Joe Hart ($3,900): Not much needs to be said. Man City is top of the league and at home against a Norwich squad coming off three consecutive losses in the midst of a relegation fight. Manchester City are 1/4 favorites and deservedly so. In cash, there is no other way to go.

Heurelho Gomes ($3,100): Gomes posses the highest WhoScored.com rating in the Premier League this season, and from what I've seen it's well earned. What really put me on Gomes is the fact that many will be off him due to his opponent being West Ham, who find themselves third in the table. Being a devout believer that the sportsbooks are better than almost everyone (including myself), Watford is the slight favorite and Gomes is a great value/GPP play.

Other goalkeepers to consider:Petr Cech ($3,700); David de Gea ($3,600); Kasper Schmeichel ($3,400); Robert Elliot ($3,300)

Nicolas Otamendi ($2,500): Otamendi draws more fouls than he concedes, has very high interception and tackle rates, averages over a shot per game and is way too cheap at $2,500, particularly with a huge chance at a clean sheet. Otamendi is the No. 1 defensive option. His pricier and more well known teammate Vincent Kompany is very prone to conceding fouls and drawing yellow cards. Kompany's two goals this season make him look good, but go with his partner.

Christian Fuchs ($2,300): Fuchs produces a combination of crosses, interceptions and tackles won. He draws more fouls than he concedes and takes some of the corners for Leicester, which is a big bump to his value in the news scoring system.

Allan Nyom ($2,800): If you go with Gomes in goal, this is definitely the defenseman to pair with him. Nyom is a fullback that can produce good stats across the board. He fouls slightly more than I like, but it's not an outrageous amount.

Other defenders to consider:Martin Olsson ($2,200); Joel Ward ($2,500); Erik Pieters ($2,500); Daryl Janmaat ($3,100); Marcos Rojo ($2,800); Danny Simpson ($2,000); Kieran Gibbs ($2,600)

Kevin De Brunye ($6,500): Everybody and their mother will be on De Brunye. David Silva's probable return should do nothing but positively impact De Brunye.

Dimitri Payet ($6,700): It would be sub-optimal to pair him with Gomes in goal, but apply liberally everywhere else. He takes all of West Ham's corners, which will just add on to the great value he already was in the old format.

Almen Abdi ($3,100): Abdi produces thoroughly across the board (and yes that includes the newly coveted corner). His tackles won per minute is quite good, averaging nearly four per game, and he takes enough shots to provide the goal scoring potential to make him very potent at this price and dually usable in both cash games in GPPs.

Other midfielders to consider:Robbie Brady ($3,900); Santi Cazorla ($5,700); Marc Albrighton ($5,5000); Riyad Mahrez ($7,200); Yohan Cabaye ($4,800); Manuel Lanzini ($3,200); N'Golo Kante ($2,500); James McClean ($2,500); David Silva ($6,200); Bakary Sako ($4,500); Mathieu Flamini ($2,500)

Olivier Giroud ($6,000): Giroud should feature from the start with Theo Walcott nursing an injury. He's averaging nearly a goal per 90 minutes this season and Arsenal is riding high with four straight league wins. Giroud is a great piece in the attack, and he could be the best on a per-dollar basis.

Ayoze Perez ($4,800): Perez is a great find among the forward ranks because of his ability to produce across multiple categories. He has two goals and assisted two more this season, he takes some corners, wins fouls and gives a great floor at a position that is regularly very boom-or-bust.

Other forwards to consider:Bojan ($3,500); Kelechi Iheanacho ($3,600); Wilfried Bony ($5,200); Alexis Sanchez ($8,000); Raheem Sterling ($6,100)

With things being so different, below is an example of a cash lineup I've built to at least give you an idea of how to construct your lineups:

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Alex Spalding plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: ajump08, DraftKings: ajump08.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Alex Spalding
Alex splits his expertise between College Basketball, NBA, NFL, MLB, and Saturday morning BPL. You'll find him under the username ajump08 on DraftKings and FanDuel.
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