This Week in Prediction Market News: Latest From Kalshi, Polymarket & More

Top Prediction Market Story of The Week

Prediction markets went Hollywood this week. Novig hired Sydney Sweeney, Betr reunited two cast members of "Entourage," and Polymarket filled a Labor Day spot with LeBron James — all pointed at an NFL season expected to draw more than $36 billion in event-contract trades. This came after some platforms spent the weekend explaining themselves to traders.

Key Takeaways

• Novig launched a national campaign starring Sweeney, who holds an equity stake in the sports-only prediction market, under the tagline "Just Sports."
• Betr, the first consumer app to integrate Polymarket's event contracts, launched Betr 2.0 with a campaign reuniting "Entourage" stars Jeremy Piven and Adrian Grenier alongside Jake Paul and Lonzo and LiAngelo Ball.
• Kalshi reversed its settlement of the Western Michigan–Michigan game after the Wolverines' late touchdown, paying out Michigan traders and clawing back money already credited to Western Michigan traders. The market totaled more than $18 million.
• Polymarket went down for several hours on the first full Saturday of college football and honored all trades placed during the outage, in both directions.
• Robinhood agreed to stop offering new sports event contracts in Michigan by Wednesday and to close all remaining positions by Oct. 9, becoming the second platform to pull sports markets out of the state this year.
• Underdog sued five states seeking a permanent injunction barring them from applying gambling laws to its prediction market.

Top Story of the Week: The Celebrity Arms Race

With prediction market platforms expected to handle more than $36 billion in NFL-related trades this season, three platforms spent the week buying famous faces.

Novig went narrowest and loudest. Its campaign strips the pitch to two words — "Just Sports" — and puts Sweeney (above) in a deliberately provocative spot to deliver it.

"The campaign was about embracing a fun idea," Sweeney said in a company release. She holds an equity stake in Novig and serves as a strategic partner. "The concept is simple: cut through the noise and put the focus entirely on sports. The campaign brings that idea to life with confidence, humor and a playful edge."

Novig started life trying to be a peer-to-peer sportsbook. Regulators closed that door. The company ran as a dual-currency social platform until it won federal approval as a Designated Contract Market earlier this year, then launched nationwide in August. It remains the only prediction market that requires users to be 21.

"Sports fans deserve a prediction market built specifically for them," said co-founder and CEO Jacob Fortinsky. "There are many places where people can engage with prediction markets across different categories. Our focus is sports, and by dedicating ourselves entirely to sports, we have built a better experience for fans. Sydney helped bring that message to life in a way that's impossible to ignore."

Betr went broadest. The company launched Betr 2.0 — the first consumer app to integrate Polymarket's event contracts — behind a flagship campaign called SOMETHING BETR, reuniting Piven and Grenier with Jake Paul, Lonzo Ball and LiAngelo Ball. Founded in 2022 by Joey Levy and Paul, Betr had options when it went shopping for a prediction-market partner.

"Any of these DCMs that want to get distribution, they get a lot of value from working with a company like us," Levy told Bookies.com in March. "Obviously, we get a lot of value from working with them because we're not a DCM at this time, but we want to get into prediction markets and offer these products to our customers."

Polymarket went biggest. Over Labor Day weekend it released a spot built around LeBron James taking over Polymarket HQ, joined by Derek Jeter, Eli Manning, Spike Lee, Richard Sherman, John Leguizamo, Sue Bird and Craig Robinson.

Sports & Fantasy Angle: Growing Pains In Week 1 

The first week of college football went about as well for Polymarket and Kalshi as it did for the Big Ten. 

Polymarket went dark for several hours on Saturday, the first full slate of the college season. The platform honored all trades placed during the outage, both ways.

Kalshi had the messier afternoon. It initially settled Western Michigan–Michigan as a Broncos win. After the Big Ten's clock fiasco and Michigan's game-winning touchdown, Kalshi reversed itself — paying out Michigan traders and clawing back winnings already credited to Western Michigan traders.

If you trade sports contracts, that Saturday is the story of the week, not the ads. Settlement risk is the part of this asset class that has no sportsbook equivalent: a graded ticket is graded. Here, a payout that landed in your account Saturday afternoon can leave it Saturday night. 

Both platforms arguably did the right thing — Polymarket ate the outage, Kalshi corrected a bad grade — but a fan trading a Week 1 NFL slate should understand that "settled" is not always final, and that the resolution rules, not the odds, are what you're actually agreeing to.

Worth watching whether the $36 billion in projected NFL volume arrives before or after these platforms harden the plumbing.

Prediction Market Legal Watch: Lawsuits Loom From Coast-To-Coast

New Jersey asked the Supreme Court to hear the case that it lost to Kalshi in the Third Circuit. Nearly 3 dozen lawsuits concerning state regulators, state attorneys general, Native Tribes, the federal government, and operators such as Kalshi, Novig, and Polymarket, continue to snake through state and federal court. The long-term forecast is far from clear.

This matters because the potential exists that your favorite prediction market operator may indeed be prohibited from operating in your state. In the interim, more than a dozen new platforms await approval by the feds. 

All of this means that you -- the player -- have more choice and the potential for better pricing.

For now. 

Key Takeaways: 

Michigan and Robinhood reach a truce. The Michigan Gaming Control Board announced Sept. 9 that Robinhood Derivatives has agreed, under a court-approved deal, to stop offering new sports-related event contracts to Michigan customers by end of day Wednesday and to close out remaining positions by Oct. 9. It follows a preliminary injunction the state secured earlier this month against KalshiEX. Robinhood is the second sports-contract platform to withdraw from Michigan this year.

The agreement concedes nothing legally — it preserves Robinhood's argument that federally structured contracts sit outside state regulation — and holds until the Sixth Circuit resolves the appeals.

"Sports wagering products should only be offered by operators who are licensed, regulated, and held accountable under Michigan law," MGCB Executive Director Henry Williams said in a release.

Attorney General Dana Nessel added: "Throughout this litigation, our priority has been protecting Michigan consumers from exploitative practices and ensuring betting in our state remains fair and regulated."

Underdog goes on offense. Underdog sued five states Tuesday — Massachusetts, New Mexico, Ohio, Washington and Wisconsin — seeking a permanent injunction against applying gambling laws to its prediction market. The suits landed after CEO Jeremy Levine told users the platform would drop daily fantasy sports in the states where it now offers prediction trades once the NFL season began.

Massachusetts still pending. The Supreme Judicial Court is expected to rule soon on whether the temporary restraining order against Kalshi can be enforced. Attorney General Andrea Campbell sued last September; the TRO was granted in the spring, and Kalshi appealed.

What To Watch For: NBA, NFL Remain Big Fish

A deal between the NBA and the Commodities Futures Trading Commission that would open the door to both marketing, data, and integrity partnerships between The Association and prediction platforms could drop any day now. 

The NFL recently sent a letter to prediction platforms outlining what it would prefer concerning NFL-related trades. This marks a major shift. 

Previously, the NFL had shunned prediction markets entirely. Now the league appears to be negotiating peace terms

Bookmark RotoWire's Prediction Market News hub as our Bill Speros keeps you updated on the latest industry news throughout 2026 and beyond.