A record $32.3 billion is projected to be wagered via legal U.S. sportsbooks during the upcoming NFL betting season through the Super Bowl — a marginal increase from last season, a RotoWire.com analysis shows.
Prediction markets, meanwhile, enter the season projected to trade $36.8 billion on NFL outcomes, more than double what they handled in 2025.
Prediction market trading volume, however, does not equate to sports betting handle.
Super Bowl 61 takes place on Valentine's Day, February 14, at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California.
This year, sportsbooks will post among the smallest year-over-year increases since legal sports betting expanded nationally. Sportsbooks took in $31.76 billion on the NFL in the 2025-26 season through Super Bowl 60, the RotoWire.com analysis shows. (Seattle won that snoozer, 29-13, over New England.) That season total marks a 15% increase over 2024, when the American Gaming Association reported $27.6 billion bet on the NFL.
But those hefty annual increases are likely a thing of the past, at least until Georgia, Texas and/or California legalize.
Prediction Markets: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Last NFL season, prediction markets handled $16.75 billion in NFL trades, the RotoWire.com analysis shows, including more than $1.6 billion traded on the Super Bowl on Kalshi and Polymarket combined.
Kalshi, meanwhile, booked a whopping $27.5 billion in trades during the 104-match World Cup. The platform signed on with ADI-Predictstreet to be an official prediction market partner of the tournament following group play.
Federally licensed prediction markets from FanDuel, DraftKings and Fanatics launched late last season, ahead of the playoffs and Super Bowl. They accept NFL trades in most states — save for Nevada — where they can't legally run a sportsbook. Multiple states - including New York, Massachusetts, and Minnesota - have proposed or tried to implement bans on sports trading via CFTC-regulated platforms.
Underdog launched its own exchange on July 18 after serving as an intermediary for Crypto.com and Kalshi since last fall. Novig expects to open its CFTC-approved, sports-exclusive market before the season begins.
Prediction markets comprised 15% of the $13.869 billion combined U.S. sports prediction market and legal betting handle in May, per Eilers & Krejcik's "Prediction Markets Monitor." That share climbed during the World Cup, when Kalshi joined forces with ADI Predictstreet to get its name alongside the field following group play.
Sports betting has yet to see major cannibalization from prediction markets, mainly because they do the bulk of their sports volume where sports betting isn't legal: Eilers & Krejcik reports 44% of that volume comes from California and Texas alone, and 69% from states with no sports betting at all. Given the choice, DraftKings, FanDuel and Fanatics still prefer running a sportsbook over a prediction market.
What Makes This NFL Season Different
Several factors should boost betting handle this season — two of them centered on Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City.
Missouri
This marks the state's first full NFL season with legal sports betting, launched last Dec. 1. The Chiefs get a fully healthy Patrick Mahomes back at quarterback, joined by Mr. and Mrs. Travis Kelce — newlyweds who bring eyeballs to Chiefs telecasts, and the betting money follows. Expect a full season in Missouri to add about $400 million to the NFL betting total.
NFL Ready For Prime Time
The NFL has 55 scheduled prime-time games this season, not including a still-TBD Week 18, plus a new "Thanksgiving Eve" game between the Rams and Packers.
Money Follows Eyeballs
Last season's most-bet team was Detroit, followed by Buffalo, Philadelphia, Kansas City and Dallas — all five set for 27 combined prime-time appearances and 14 of this season's 17 national late-afternoon Sunday windows. Hard to believe that's a coincidence. The exception: Tom Brady's return to Foxboro in the booth, when the Patriots host the Packers in Week 8.
Caution Ahead: Tax Rules, Public Sentiment
Prediction markets' growth is just one challenge facing sportsbooks this season, alongside economic concerns, the continued absence of legal betting in Texas, Georgia, and California, and a change in the tax code.
Gamblers Throw Flag On New Tax Law
The federal tax deduction is now capped at 90% of losses, down from 100% — meaning big-money gamblers could face a tax liability on money they never won. Thomas Gable, who runs the Borgata sportsbook in Atlantic City, told RotoWire.com the change could push large bettors out of the legal space. "They may end up betting offshore because of it," he said.
The Official Sportsbook Of . . .
The NFL heads into the season without an official sportsbook partner for the first time since 2021, with the league and operators deadlocked over what Genius Sports charges for its data. Industry sources tell RotoWire.com a deal is likely, but at a higher cost — meaning worse odds and fewer bonuses. Data rights are the backbone of any operator-league deal, powering in-game betting off a shared set of numbers.
California Dreamin'
The stars shine in L.A. — but sports betting doesn't. The Rams enter as the clear Super Bowl favorite at +500 on DraftKings, with a projected win total of 11.5 games and seven prime-time appearances, after covering and hitting the over at a 12-8 clip last season. But there's no legal betting in California, and the Rams were never the league's most-bet team in any individual week last season.
It's The Economy
Operators pitch their product as entertainment, and entertainment spending is often the first thing cut when prices — especially gas — rise. DraftKings, FanDuel, Caesars Sportsbook and bet365 no longer accept credit-card-funded wagers, a milestone for responsible gaming.
Public Likes Betting, To A Point
A Politico poll from May found 53% of Americans believe sports betting should be legal, but scandals have cooled enthusiasm — the torrent of in-game ads from a few years ago has largely disappeared, and only 3 of 4 available ad slots sold this past Super Bowl. Sportsbooks were mostly spared legislatively, save for a tax increase in North Carolina.
What's The Difference Between Prediction Market Volume and Sports Betting Handle
A sportsbook bet is a single, static commitment: place $100 on the Chiefs -3, and it counts once toward handle until the game ends.
A prediction-market "yes" contract is a tradeable position. A trader can buy "Chiefs win" at 60 cents, watch it move to 75, sell to lock in profit, and buy back in later. Each move adds to notional prediction market volume, even though it's the same exposure being opened, closed and reopened by the same person.
One bettor holding one position generates one unit of handle; one trader managing that position can generate several, for the same real economic risk.
Where Do Our Numbers Come From
Data and projections include NFL games, team and player props, parlays and combos, futures, and related markets from the regular season through the Super Bowl.
Figures draw on state betting handle reports, by-sport breakdowns where available, earnings reports and transcripts, SEC filings and industry analyses.
Prediction market volumes include publicly available data from Kalshi and Polymarket and their own handle breakdowns.
