This article is part of our Baseball Draft Kit series.
Of the 10 players I recommended last year, just one had a breakout: Phil Hughes. A number of the younger players on the list, like Kevin Gausman and Peter Bourjos, were stymied by their managers, while Nolan Arenado, Brett Lawrie and Sergio Santos couldn't stay healthy enough to have the fantasy impact I had projected for them. The list of players to avoid was a bit stronger, as Carlos Beltran and Ubaldo Jimenez were two of the worst free-agent signings of last winter, and Curtis Granderson was not much better.
Opportunity will play heavily into this year's picks, as I look for players who have room to slump for a month without losing the job they have, and for those who face a weak field of competition for the job they want.
3B – Detroit Tigers
The Tigers stayed with Castellanos throughout 2014 despite the rookie's poor line: .259/.306/.394, with just 11 homers, and poor defensive statistics at third base. Look deeper, and you see some good signs: he doesn't hit the ball on the ground – just 35% of the time – and his HR/FB of 7.5% was unusually low for a strong flyball hitter. Castellanos didn't fade in the second half, either, posting nearly the exact same line as he did in the first. He is going to hit with a ton of runners on base, batting behind Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez, so as his power develops, he'll rack up RBI.