Stathead vs. Scout: The Dividing Line

In August of 2013, we started a weekly podcast called Short Hops. Our aim has been to share our conversations about baseball – including fantasy strategy, player analysis, and transactions – and combine our unique perspectives on the game that we love.

Bernie has been watching baseball longer than I have been alive, and his experience in the game includes time as a professional scout with the Astros and Mariners. I started playing fantasy baseball as a seventh grader when most kids my age did not have internet access on their home computers. And while I spent countless hours during college managing my rosters, I did not receive formal recognition for my Fantasy Sports studies upon graduating from the University of Wisconsin in 2006.

Even with completely different foundations, we largely agree on what we see when watching and evaluating players. Our most interesting conversations – and the most fun aspect of competing against each other in several leagues – is trying to leverage our differences into league championships.

As draft season approaches for 2015, here is our take on several players that we disagree about for the upcoming year.

Also, be sure to check out the Short Hops podcast (free) on RotoWire, iTunes, or Stitcher.

Kole Calhoun, OF, LAA

Bernie (Target): Calhoun enters his prime age-27 season and should be the clear choice as the right fielder for the Angels. With his place atop the lineup, Calhoun has a chance to score 100 runs while driving in at least 60. His home-run rate should improve as well – more selectivity and fewer groundballs will help.

DVR (Avoid): When I am building a roster, I want to have players like Calhoun on it. The problem here is price – Calhoun is being treated as a top-75 player – and there is very little room for profit. Skills wise, my greatest area of concern comes from the potential loss of playing time against left-handed pitching (career 24.0% K%). Also, did the league start to figure him out? Calhoun hit .254/.301/.395 with a 19.9% K% and 5.7% BB% after the All-Star break.

Charlie Blackmon, OF, COL

Bernie (Target): I passed on him previously, but not this year. Hitting in Coors Field for half his games is enough for me. Blackmon may have been over his skis in the first half last year, but I'll take 20 homers, 75 RBI, and 30 steals. I also think his batting average will be at least .280. Not too bad.

DVR (Avoid): A part of me feels bad about this stance as someone who had a few shares of Blackmon to begin 2014. In many ways, Blackmon reminds me of Kole Calhoun, but in a more certain platoon and with the opportunity to play half of his games at Coors Field. With Michael Cuddyer leaving via free agency, Blackmon and Corey Dickerson should be regulars in the outfield for the Rockies this season. His true talent level is still difficult to gauge, but I think it's more in line with the numbers he posted from May 1 on (.271/.318/.405, 14 HR, 21 SB) than his video game numbers from April that skew his overall line from last season.

Leonys Martin, OF, TEX

Bernie (Target): The Rangers' player development staff has done an outstanding job converting Martin from a raw, inexperienced prospect to a viable candidate to steal 40 bases and score 75 runs. He hits with gap power, and 10 home runs are a possibility.

DVR (Avoid): Only five players have accumulated more steals than Martin since the start of the 2013 season. Of the group, Martin has the lowest OBP (.319), and the fewest runs scored (134), with the former likely driving the latter total by keeping him mostly in the bottom third of the Rangers' batting order. Unless he shows improved plate discipline, his counting stats will lag behind other premium speedsters. Martin hits a ton of grounders, and I'm not optimistic about his ability to contribute more than six-to-eight home runs in a particular season.

Alexei Ramirez, SS, CWS

Bernie (Target): The Silver Slugger offers a fine batting average and an improving home-run rate. Ramirez has settled down as a hitter and has improved his plate coverage and ability to hit breaking balls. Stolen bases come with the package and his contact rate is a plus.

DVR (Avoid): Ramirez has always offered a steady ability to make contact, but the double-digit power he displayed last season was a skill that he appeared to lose in 2012 and 2013. He's durable and the lineup around him is improved, but at age 33 he seems more likely to fall short of the 15 homers and 21 steals he amassed last season than to reach those levels again, especially after he hit just 15 home runs in the previous two seasons combined.

Adam Wainwright, SP, STL

Bernie (Target): Wainwright is most valuable in a fantasy league that counts wins. He is reliable and will pile up innings with solid numbers in almost every category. The strikeouts are down a bit, but he delivers consistent quality starts with outstanding ERA and WHIP results.

DVR (Avoid): With 519.2 innings under his belt since the start of 2013, Wainwright has been a horse for the Cardinals. Being a horse takes its toll, and Wainwright has already had Tommy John surgery once in his career. He had surgery to trim a piece of cartilage from his elbow during the offseason, and while it's expected that he will be ready for spring training, there is added risk here. Further, there is skills loss in the form of his 19.9% K% – the lowest mark he's posted since 2008. He may still be a great bet to finish as a top-20 starting pitcher, but his days as an elite fantasy starter may be over.

Doug Fister, SP, WAS

Bernie (Target): Fister will not be the ace of your fantasy staff, but he's a very serviceable pitcher that will get the most of his repertoire. His ERA and WHIP will be good, as he knows how to pitch. Fister's home park environment, and that he will receive run support from a club that can hit will help his overall value. Look for consistent quality starts.

DVR (Avoid): Fister is a great innings eater, capable of inducing a lot of weak contact and groundball outs. As sound as he is in that approach, it doesn't appear as though he's going to attack hitters in a way that will enable him to recoup the strikeout rate that he posted in 2012 – a clear outlier at 7.6 K/9 (20.4%). With an xFIP (3.85) nearly a run-and-a-half above his 2014 ERA (2.41), there is almost certain regression coming in his BABIP (.262 in 2014, career .292) and LOB% (83.1% in 2014, career 73.5%).

Alex Rios, OF, KAN

DVR (Target): Full disclosure: I wrote his player outlook for 2015, but in case you see his name in the A-Z section and want to ignore him, you shouldn't. Even for a player who has been susceptible to steep drop-offs in the past, it's hard to write him off. The degree to which he rebounds may be limited after he signed with the Royals as a free agent, as Rios has reaped the benefits of three hitter-friendly environments to this point as a professional (career .802 OPS at home, .725 on the road). Even in a less-friendly environment, 10-12 homers, 25-plus steals, and plenty of runs scored and driven in should be the floor if he's healthy. Rios was slowed by toe, oblique, ankle, and thumb injuries throughout 2014, which undoubtedly accelerated his decline.

Bernie (Avoid): Rios generally ends his season with respectable numbers. However, I have trouble tolerating the inconsistent roller-coaster hot-cold periods. At age 34, I think the decline may be here.

Wil Myers, OF, SD

DVR (Target): A collision with teammate Desmond Jennings in the outfield caused a wrist injury at the end of May, and Myers never seemed to recover. Even before the power-sapping ailment, Myers was struggling to match his 2013 numbers, but his plate discipline numbers are very similar to his rookie marks. Young players often go through an adjustment period – some call it a "sophomore slump," a term that oversimplifies the complexities of learning to hit big league pitching. Nevertheless, his raw power and opportunity to play every day in the heart of an improved San Diego lineup should offer value as a candidate to hit .270-plus with 20 homers in his first full healthy big league season.

Bernie (Avoid): His long, aggressive, empty swings resulting in mounting strikeout totals still concern me. At age 24, his power is still emerging. Until I see better pitch recognition and more patience at the plate, I have to look elsewhere. WANTED: plate discipline.

Jean Segura, SS, MIL

DVR (Target): With a 13.2% strikeout rate as a big league hitter, Segura puts plenty of balls in play and can utilize his best asset – speed. Scooter Gennett wrestled away the No. 2 spot in the order from Segura last season, but the Brewers lack viable alternatives to play shortstop, so Segura's playing time should be very safe. Moreover, he could wind up moving to the two-hole against left-handed starters after hitting .317/.358/.507 against southpaws in 2013. His average should rebound back toward the .270-range after his BABIP slipped to .275 despite a batted-ball profile that was nearly identical to 2013. The lineup is still very strong around him, offering a steady supply of runs and RBI.

Bernie (Avoid): He went through a horrific experience personally with the loss of his nine-month-old son, and his on-field performance was way below his norm. A 48-point decline in batting average has to be taken seriously – rest assured that I'm taking it seriously. Segura's stolen-base total dropped by 24 (from 44 to 20) in a season where he received only 66 fewer plate appearances.

Nick Swisher, 1B, CLE

DVR (Target): Prior to the 2014 season, Swisher had played in at least 145 games annually since 2006. While he's flashed volatility in batting average, the league-wide decline in the category makes rostering a career .251 hitter much easier to stomach. Further, he's always drawn walks at a steady clip, adding hidden value in leagues that use OBP. Similar to Adam LaRoche this time last year, Swisher feels like a viable 20-25 home run threat capable of providing cheap power and useful run production (140-150 RBI + runs scored), coming off a season where he attempted to play through injury that resulted in surgery on both knees in August.

Bernie (Avoid): Returning from injury, the Tribe is hoping for a bounce-back year. I don't see it. Swisher is taking too many called strikes, and that he finished with a .208 batting average is also a concern. Beyond that, his lack of clutch hitting and no true defensive position hurt his viability.

Joey Votto, 1B, CIN

DVR (Target): From 2011-2013, Votto carried a higher slugging percentage than Andrew McCutchen, the same batting average as Mike Trout, and hit as many home runs as Adrian Gonzalez. Health completely derailed him last season, and as a hitter who never wastes an at-bat, he's as stable as any player in the big leagues. A perennial top-20 overall pick, Votto is coming at a steep discount in early drafts even though he's an excellent rebound candidate. The risk is worth the reward with Votto.

Bernie (Avoid): I worry that his injuries are taking their toll. Can he stay healthy? Will his home-run swing return? Will there be some protection in the lineup? Can he walk less and hit more?

Bernie Also Likes

Anthony Rendon, 2B/3B, WAS
Nolan Arenado, 3B, COL
Kyle Seager, 3B, SEA
Christian Yelich, OF, MIA
Mookie Betts, OF, BOS
Lorenzo Cain, OF, KAN
Jake Arrieta, SP, CHC
Carlos Carrasco, SP, CLE
Dellin Betances, RP, NYY

This article appears in the 2015 edition of the RotoWire Fantasy Baseball Guide.