This article is part of our Collette Calls series.
The 22nd annual League of Alternative Baseball Reality kicked off Saturday in Phoenix. You know it better as the LABR drafts hosted by USA Today. Their genesis traces back to the draft results that would be published in Baseball Weekly (RIP that beautiful periodical) and kept under lock and key until printed in "The Leviathan." But that is no longer the case as you can follow a live draft board with auction results as they happen and can even hear live audio from the draft room on the SiriusXM Fantasy Channel.Because I am an old married man who limits his paintings of the town to Tout Wars trips and vacations, I was home Saturday night following the auction on both mediums while putting in some work on the exercise bike. This comes on the heels of spending Friday night on the treadmill at my local gym while reading "The Starting Pitching Guide" from RotoWire's Paul Sporer. This time of year, it is pretty much Eat, Sleep, Read Baseball, and Repeat during the free time that remains in my busy schedule. With all that said, here are my reactions to the LABR AL-Only auction.
Be Ready to Pay for Hitting!
Our own RotoWire projections project 10 players to earn at least $30 in 2015 in AL-Only leagues based on a 70/30 split. In the draft room Saturday, 14 players went for at least $30. In fact, the LABR final splits ended up coming in at 69.6/30.4, so the 70/30 projection split is a clean match.
| RW $30 CLUB | AL LABR $30 CLUB |
| Mike Trout ($46) | Mike Trout ($44) |
| Miguel Cabrera ($38) | Jose Abreu ($37) |
| Jose Abreu ($36) | Miguel Cabrera ($35) |
| Jose Bautista ($35) | Jose Bautista ($33) |
| Adam Jones ($34) | Edwin Encarnacion ($33) |
| Edwin Encarnacion ($32) | Jacoby Ellsbury ($33) |
| Jose Altuve ($32) | Felix Hernandez ($32) |
| Felix Hernandez ($31) | Jose Altuve ($31) |
| Michael Brantley ($31) | Josh Donaldson ($31 |
| Josh Donaldson ($30) | Adam Jones ($30) |
| Michael Brantley ($30) | |
| Robinson Cano ($30) | |
| Hanley Ramirez ($30) | |
| Prince Fielder ($30) |
Ramirez, Fielder and Ellsbury are the biggest surprises in that group. Ramirez does not have the health track record that we like to see from players in this group, but Ramirez has significantly bulked up this offseason, which apparently eased the concerns of the draft room. Fielder is coming back from major neck surgery, but there is hardly a discount. Last year in this auction, Fielder went for $33. Ellsbury went for $35 last season, so the disappointing season only knocked two dollars off his price.
In short, nothing near the top is coming at a discount, even those with questionable health histories.
Despite the fact that LABR had only two more players purchased (51) at $20 or more than we have projected earning that much (49), $83 more was spent by the LABR participants on that pool than we have projected. A small percentage of that could be explained by allocating money that would have gone to Yu Darvish, but not all of it.
Pitching isn't Cheap Either!
Our projections have six pitchers earning at least $20 in 2015; LABR results are more optimistic.
| RW $20 CLUB | LABR $20 CLUB |
| Felix Hernandez ($31) | Felix Hernandez ($32) |
| Chris Sale ($26) | David Price ($27) |
| David Price ($24) | Chris Sale ($25) |
| Corey Kluber ($21) | Corey Kluber ($25) |
| Greg Holland ($21) | Alex Cobb ($23) |
| Dellin Betances ($21) | Greg Holland ($21) |
| Hisashi Iwakuma ($20) | |
| Carlos Carrasco ($20) | |
| Marcus Stroman ($20) |
You will recall my article from two weeks ago on Tax Season -- Stroman, Carrasco and Cobb are great examples of that. I really like all three pitchers, but I'm not paying those prices for those guys, and each was in the top-50 nominations. Cobb has missed time each season due to injury while Carrasco and Stroman's track record haven't caught up with their stuff yet.
Maybe You Do Have To Pay For Saves
The top tier of closers in the American League has three names -- Greg Holland, Dellin Betances and David Robertson. That trio went for $21, $19 and $17, respectively, in the auction, but some saves were still costly as Fernando Rodney's unstable skills went for $16, and two closers who ended last year with injuries in Glen Perkins and Koji Uehara still went for as much as Robertson. Part of that certainly has to do with the fact that four of the 15 closing jobs in the league are still not final. In all, 12 relievers went in double-digits while the unsettled closing situations went as such:
Oakland: Sean Doolittle ($8), Tyler Clippard ($10)
Tampa Bay: Brad Boxberger ($7), Jake McGee ($10), Kevin Jepsen ($1), Ernesto Frieri (reserves)
Toronto: Brett Cecil ($6), Aaron Sanchez ($8)
Houston: Chad Qualls ($4), Luke Gregerson ($6), Josh Fields ($3), Pat Neshek ($2)
You Don't Have To Pay For Steals
Well, unless you need to have the big name. We project Jose Altuve to lead the AL in steals, and he will be pricey to roster. Ellsbury is next, and he went for more than Ellsbury. After that, the results are a mixed bag.
| PLAYER | LABR $ | PROJ. SB |
| Jose Altuve | $31 | 50 |
| Jacoby Ellsbury | $33 | 43 |
| Jarrod Dyson | $9 | 38 |
| Leonys Martin | $21 | 36 |
| Elvis Andrus | $20 | 31 |
| Rajai Davis | $12 | 30 |
| Dalton Pompey | $11 | 30 |
| Jose Reyes | $24 | 29 |
| Alcides Escobar | $17 | 29 |
| Everth Cabrera | $5 | 29 |
| Jason Kipnis | $27 | 28 |
| Emilio Bonifacio | $10 | 27 |
| Brett Gardner | $19 | 26 |
| Lorenzo Cain | $15 | 25 |
| Jose Ramirez | $8 | 25 |
While you can get more certainty out of paying top dollar for the bigger names, if all you want is steals, there are other sources available at a discount. Just look at the Yankees outfield. Ellsbury went for $14 more than Gardner in the auction, but we only have a $5 difference in their projections.
| PLAYER | PROJ$ | AVG | HR | RBI | SB | R |
| Ellsbury | $27 | .282 | 13 | 62 | 43 | 80 |
| Gardner | $22 | .264 | 15 | 55 | 26 | 93 |
Personally, I'd rather pocket the $14 discount from Ellsbury to Gardner and allocate that resource elsewhere.
Home Runs Will Cost You
It is no secret that power is on decline across the league. Any time the supply of something decreases, the demand for it increases.
We project 18 batters to hit at least 25 home runs, and only two were acquired in LABR for less than $20 -- Mark Teixeira and Brian McCann. Teixeira went for $9 while McCann just missed the cut at $19. Both are there because the shift eats into their batting averages. If we lower the threshold to 20 or more home runs, that still only adds eight players to the pool: Jonathan Singleton, Jonathan Schoop, Colby Rasmus, Matt Wieters, Mike Zunino, Carlos Beltran, Oswaldo Arcia and Mike Napoli. Singleton is a player our projections are rather bullish on for home runs at 22, and he was also the biggest gap in the draft between what we value him at ($12) and what he was drafted at ($1).
Biggest differences in RotoWire projected value vs. LABR Prices:
| PLAYER | RW$ | LABR$ |
| Jonathan Singleton | $12 | $1 |
| Jonathan Schoop | $11 | $2 |
| Nick Swisher | $11 | $3 |
| Allen Craig | $13 | $5 |
| Mark Teixeira | $17 | $9 |
| Josh Hamilton | $11 | $5 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | $9 | $3 |
| Coco Crisp | $17 | $11 |
| Michael Pineda | $17 | $11 |
| Danny Duffy | $13 | $7 |
| Torii Hunter | $17 | $11 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | $10 | $4 |
| R.A. Dickey | $14 | $8 |
There are risks associated with all of these players from injury to continued slides down the aging curve, but value is value, and if the price is right, there's still profit.
| PLAYER | RW$ | LABR$ |
| Marcus Semien | $0 | $13 |
| Marcus Stroman | $10 | $20 |
| Carlos Santana | $19 | $28 |
| Joakim Soria | $0 | $8 |
| John Jaso | $3 | $11 |
| Evan Gattis | $17 | $24 |
| Michael Saunders | $2 | $9 |
| Carlos Rodon | $0 | $7 |
| Garrett Richards | $10 | $17 |
| Dioner Navarro | $1 | $8 |
| Jason Kipnis | $20 | $27 |
| Xander Bogaerts | $10 | $17 |
| Nick Franklin | $2 | $8 |
| Alex Cobb | $17 | $23 |
| Andrew Heaney | $0 | $6 |
| Jose Quintana | $10 | $16 |
| Mike Zunino | $7 | $13 |
| Carlos Carrasco | $14 | $20 |
| Emilio Bonifacio | $4 | $10 |
| Jacoby Ellsbury | $27 | $33 |
Conversely, there's little profit to be found on this list outside the likes of Rodon and possibly Saunders if he bounces back quickly from the knee injury.
The End Game
This is where the experts speculated in the end game:
| R. Soriano | Rondon | D. Young | Alvarez | Tazawa | Warren |
| Sano | DeJesus | Holt | Tomlin | Duke | Arencibia |
| Ruggiano | Guthrie | Shaw | Nunez | Loup | Nava |
| Meyer | Mujica | Appel | Swihart | Hultzen | Berrios |
| Karns | Severino | Canha | M. Perez | Ludwick | Burns |
| Santiago | Simon | Oberholtzer | McAllister | Blanks | Jimenez |
| Milone | Travis | Peterson | Yarbrough | Danks | Machado |
| Izturis | Floyd | Nova | Moya | D. Santana | Owens |
| Chavez | Griffin | Colon | Walker | Leone | Harrison |
| Francisco | Green | Frieri | Morin | D. Murphy | C. Young |
| Elias | Lewis | Capuano | Carrera | Whitley | E. Escobar |
| Dominguez | Gentry | Sanchez | Oliveros | Correa | Beckham |
There are a few intriguing names there that could break camp as fifth starters, including Roenis Elias and Nate Karns. Brett Oberholtzer should be in rotation and is adding a cutter to give him another weapon in his battle against right-handed batters. DeJesus could still get traded away from Tampa Bay and hit near the top of the lineup on the strong side of a platoon for his new team. Frieri could end up with some saves if Jim Hickey can fix him as he has done so many other relievers. Kyle Blanks and Juan Francisco are deep power plays from the bench if things fall to them.
Chris Liss shared his thoughts on his roster in a piece this week. He slow played the draft and demonstrated patience with all of the big spending early. I've been there and that takes a balance of patience and execution, otherwise you end up where Scott Swanay was last year in Mixed Tout as he missed the tipping point in the draft and had much more money than he did talent. To his credit, he used a loophole to buy some FAAB in the draft with a hurt player and salvaged his season with strong in-season roster management.
If you'd like to see the auction results by order of player bid, you can go here to see those results.
