The Long Game: Distressed Asset Recovery

Last time out, I took a look at players who were earning far more than their salary and discussed whether they were worth keeping, or whether you'd be better off selling high. (And since then I've put my money where my keyboard was, making a $2 Billy Burns the centerpiece of a deal that netted me Jeff Samardzija in a 12-team AL-only league). Now it's time to look at the flip side, those players who are severely underperforming their auction price tags, and discuss whether it might be worth picking them up off the scrap heap in anticipation of a rebound and some 2016 keeper value.

What we're looking for are players who aren't just having a bad year. They have to be so bad, and lack the perceived upside to be worth gambling on, that they've been cut loose and are available as free agents, or soon will be. This rules out some obvious candidates like Robinson Cano, who just has too much brand value to have been kicked to the curb in most leagues. Instead, the subjects here will be more modest names and are thus more likely to have slipped through the cracks into the free-agent pool, where they can be signed to a contract that might make them worth hanging onto next season.

Michael Cuddyer, OF, NYM - The latest bout of knee trouble might well have been the final straw for Cuddyer owners. Coming off back-to-back seasons in which he hit higher than .330 with solid power numbers on a per-game basis for the Rockies, it was expected that his production would drop somewhat with the Mets, but a .250/.303/.380 line with just eight home runs and 30 RBI in 82 games is a much bigger swoon than most anticipated. The Mets are stuck with him for one more season unless they can manage to trade him, but it's unlikely the team's offense will be the black hole of suckitude that it's been in 2015, so at the very least Cuddyer should see more RBI opportunities next year. A 2016 rebound to something closer to the numbers he put up in his final season as a Twin (.284-20-70) is certainly feasible if not exactly likely, and even if you rate the odds of a recovery at 20 percent he would be worth a modest investment.

Ian Desmond, SS, WAS - Wait. Didn't I say that I wouldn't be looking at bigger names? Desmond's certainly been one of the best fantasy shortstops the last few years, but based on the litany of complaints I see about him when I handle the Ask An Expert queue on Sundays, I think he's probably pushed more than one owner too far with his awful season. A .213/.260/.339 line is unrosterable even at middle infield in deeper formats, and the previously consistent 20/20 threat is on pace for just 14 home runs and 10 steals. There's always been a lot of swing-and-miss in Desmond's game, so it's entirely possible he's simply fallen off a cliff from which he'll never recover, but from eyeballing him this season it does look like his hitting mechanics are somewhat out of whack. He's a free agent this offseason and almost certainly won't be returning to the Nationals, so that means a new hitting coach will get to work with him in 2016. That might be all it would take to boost him back to the top. If he's available and you have a bench spot to stow him in, or aren't competing for the title this season and don't care if he keeps struggling through the last couple months, Desmond's absolutely worth taking a chance on given the potential reward.

Matt Garza, P, MIL - There's just been nothing to like about Garza this year. His 6.17 K/9 and 1.46 HR/9 are the worst rates of his career, his 1.53 WHIP is the worst in the majors among qualifiers for the ERA title and his 5.23 ERA can't be written off as unlucky given his 4.96 FIP. In most leagues, he should long ago have been dropped like a radioactive potato. But buried in all those awful numbers are some faint glimmers of hope. His fastball velocity hasn't taken a nose dive and remains in the same 92.5- to 93.5-mph range it's been throughout his career. Garza's also learning to work the bottom of the zone more, and his career-best 1.58 GB/FB ratio is an uncomfortable fit with that career-worst HR rate. In fact, his HR/FB percentage of 15.3% is more than double what it was in 2014 and if that rate drops back down, it's going to take a lot of ERA with it. If the strikeouts don't rebound his fantasy ceiling will be limited, but Garza will only be 32 next year and seeing him turn back into a useful mid-rotation arm wouldn't be a huge shock.

Mike Napoli, 1B, BOS - Other than that one crazy season in Texas, Napoli's never been an asset in batting average, but .198? C'mon, dude, that's just nasty. His power hasn't completely vanished and he does have 10 homers in 84 games, but you'd need to about double that HR number to make him worth a roster spot in most leagues. I'm less optimistic about a Napoli rebound than anyone else on this list, as he'll be a 34-year-old free agent next offseason and it's hard to see him winding up in anything more than a bench role given how he's performed this year, but if he lands in the right spot he could still provide some value.

CC Sabathia, P, NYY - It's been a long time since Sabathia was a reliable fantasy asset, 2012 in fact. Since then he hasn't had an ERA lower than 4.78 or a WHIP lower than 1.37, and it would be entirely reasonable to assume that after nearly 3,000 career innings, he's simply done. The issue for him the last couple seasons has been home runs. His 4.33 K/BB ratio this season is actually among the best rates of his career, but his 1.61 HR/9 rate is the second-highest he's ever posted behind last year's 1.96. Basically, if he can find a way to keep a few more balls in the park, Sabathia has a chance to put up useful numbers again. Will he figure it out at 35 and heading into the last season of his contract? Probably not. Will it cost you much of anything to find out? Definitely not.

Mike Zunino, C, SEA - Remember a couple of seasons ago when Zunino was a hot young catching prospect? Good times. The Mariners put him in Triple-A to start the 2013 season despite having just 51 Double-A at-bats under his belt, but when he didn't hit they called him up to the big leagues anyway, and it's been a steady downhill plummet for his value ever since. He's bottomed out at a .166/.230/.295 slash line this season, and the only thing keeping him in the Seattle lineup is his defense and their complete lack of better options. Zunino won't turn 25 until just before the start of next season though, and while he might never be a great hitter, there's still time for him to become a typical low-BA, solid power backstop, as opposed to the category-killing monstrosity he is now. It might take a stint back in the minors to figure some things out. It might take a new organization. But given his pedigree as the third overall pick in 2012, it just seems too early to write him off as a complete bust.