Mound Musings: Turnaround Time

Time for a turnaround … is a big second half in the cards?

Last week we started sorting out the real value in 2016 from the pretenders – and the other side of that coin – pitchers who were expected to be valuable additions to a fantasy rotation but who have fallen short, at least so far. It's always a good idea to get rid of the pretenders who somehow managed to post useful numbers in the first half, but it's even more fun to uncover the guy who struggled early on and is primed to turn it around as the season wears on.

This week, I would like to feature a few of those pitchers who have posted disappointing numbers at the halfway point in the season, but who also qualify as pitchers who have the tools and the scenario to reverse those numbers between now and the end of the regular season. It could be injury related, maturity or just fixing a simple flaw.

Let's take a look at some arms you may want to target for your squad going forward:

Some selected pitchers I think could have a productive second half:

Yu Darvish (Texas) – It's not often that a top 10 pitcher is listed as a potential boon selection for the second half of the season, but, there might be enough owners out there who aren't comfortable throwing a pitcher who is coming back mid-season from Tommy John surgery that he could be a significant value. Darvish actually returned briefly about a month ago but went back down with some shoulder soreness after just three starts. That's enough to add more risk to the equation, but I'm going all in. There may be a bit of rust, and he might make some earlier departures to keep his workload down, but his ability to generate strikeouts, and wins, for a great team, while providing a solid ERA and WHIP, make him too attractive to pass up.

Adam Wainwright (St. Louis) – A perennial All-Star, Wainwright was coming back from a torn Achilles tendon when the bell rang in April. It wasn't pretty. His velocity was down a tick, but, more importantly, his command of the strike zone was almost nonexistent. By mid May his WHIP was a horrid 1.60 and his ERA was an equally atrocious 6.80 – even more patient owners were preparing to pull the chute. However, there were subtle signs that things could be coming together, and I think those who stuck it out could be in line for a reward. At the break he owns a 1.32 WHIP and a 4.49 ERA. Those numbers certainly aren't what Wainwright usually brings to the table, but they're heading the right direction, and even these numbers are tainted with some bad luck. His BABIP is a high .326 and his FIP is a steadily improving 3.48. If it's not too late, go get him.

Kevin Gausman (Baltimore) – Okay, it probably won't surprise regular readers to see Gausman listed here. At the turn he's compiled a 1-6 record with a 1.30 WHIP and a 4.15 ERA. Add in 82 strikeouts in 86.2 innings. Those stats aren't bad – well, other than the 1-6 record, and he can't do a lot to control that. The normally explosive Orioles' offense routinely hibernates when Gausman is working. Gausman's strikeout rate is climbing, his walk rate is declining, and much of the damage he has endured has been the result of some bad luck and poorly timed home run balls. At the risk of sounding like a fan, he has pitched better than the numbers. He could bring a nice dividend to owners with a little more luck and a little more Baltimore offense.

Gerrit Cole (Pittsburgh) – Normally, I can pinpoint a problem that contributes to a pitcher failing to live up to expectations. In Cole's case, there isn't a red-letter event or tip off, he has just been inconsistent from start to start. He did increase the use of his slider beginning late last season, that can add stress, but his velocity is in line with his previous readings. Perhaps the added stress is sapping some of his command – his walk rate is up (1.90 to 2.63), contributing to an unsightly 1.32 WHIP, and his strikeout rate has dipped (8.74 to 7.24). Or, it could be a minor injury? He went on the disabled list in early June with a triceps muscle strain and is now rehabbing at Triple-A Indianapolis. Reports are that he has looked crisp as he prepares for a return shortly after the break. He's too good to just post pedestrian numbers, so I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt and hope he has everything in synch when he gets back on the mound for the Pirates.

Wei-Yin Chen (Miami) – I always like to sneak one in here who may not be the popular name to discuss in fantasy circles, and I think Chen may fit nicely here. A lot of analysts, myself included, thought he might be landing in a nice, soft spot for the 2016 season. He moved from the brutal AL East in Baltimore to a pitcher-friendly ballpark in Miami. Logic dictates he should have an easier go of it this year facing more NL hitters in a park known for lost homeruns. Instead he is 5-3 with a ho-hum 1.27 WHIP that, because he's allowing considerably more home runs, has led to a career-worst 4.83 ERA over just under 100 innings. Interestingly, his numbers are much worse at home where he should be benefitting from a less explosive ballpark – certainly much less dangerous than Camden Yards. He finished off the first half with his best outing of the season to date, so let's give him a Mulligan and see if he can start providing some positive returns over the course of the second half. Don't overpay for him, but he's worth a flyer.

Instead of the usual ramblings, how about some Futures Game observations:

• The standout – at least in my opinion and, not too surprisingly – was Cardinals' hurler Alex Reyes. He lit it up with triple-digits at times and filled in with secondary stuff that's major league ready for the most part. He retired five hitters, four via strikeout and should be in St. Louis before long.

• I want to include another guy in the standout category. Amir Garrett doesn't have quite the raw power arm of Reyes, but he can throw his full arsenal at any time in any count with poise and confidence. The Reds have several young arms with bright futures, but he just might be the best of them, and that's saying a lot.

• Almost every year a pitcher comes along and surprises me a bit. This year it was Jharel Cotton from the Dodgers' organization. He's smallish at 5-11 and he's not really overpowering with a low 90s fastball, but his secondary pitches were a notch above average, and he could develop into a useful pitcher.

• It generally takes quite a lot for me to focus heavily on a young Colorado pitching prospect. That is an ugly environment for pitchers and it takes a pretty special skillset for a guy to make it there. Jeff Hoffman just might have what it takes. He's going to need to keep hitters even more off balance, but, maybe?

• Finally, I have to comment on something I don't think I have ever seen before. There was a pitcher on the World squad from Lithuania – not exactly a hotbed of baseball talent. I enjoyed watching the Pirates' Dovydas Neverauskas pitch. He isn't a rising superstar, but he throws a heavy fastball with groundball-inducing sink that could play up in a major league bullpen someday.
  

Endgame Odyssey:

In Anaheim, Huston Street has been shaky, and was removed from a save situation last week. The buzz has been all about Cam Bedrosian, and he warrants the attention. Street probably won't be there past the trade deadline anyway, so roll the dice. If you like speculating on live bullpen arms, have a look at Mauricio Cabrera in Atlanta. He has bailed out Arodys Vizcaino a couple of times now and he's probably getting close to being named the official end gamer. Brad Ziegler finally moved on and is now in a set-up role in Boston, leaving the closer's gig available in Arizona. A couple of weeks ago the choice to close would have been no contest, but Daniel Hudson has struggled recently and opened the door for Tyler Clippard. I still think Hudson wins out. In Boston, Craig Kimbrel is out three to six weeks, but it won't be Ziegler. Koji Uehara has been named to fill the spot until Kimbrel returns. Wade Davis is hurt in Kansas City, and while there's been a lot of talk about Kelvin Herrera taking over, I like Joakim Soria and his experience a bit better. The Reds' Raisel Iglesias has said he would like to close games. He's not a prototypical closer but he misses a lot of bats and could do a solid job. The only roadblock is his ability to spot start, and pitch multiple innings – both things the team also needs. Keep an eye on him, especially if Tony Cingrani stumbles.