Regan's Rumblings: Searching for the Next Adam Duvall

Regan's Rumblings: Searching for the Next Adam Duvall

This article is part of our Regan's Rumblings series.

While progressing through the Giants' farm system, Adam Duvall always put up good power numbers, but his lack of ability to consistently hit for average and draw walks has held him back. He also is in his age-27 year, so you can certainly understand why the Giants elected to include him in the Mike Leake trade.

Year AB HR AB/HR BB% AVG
2011 431 22 19.6 11.6 .285
2012 534 30 17.8 7.9 .258
2013 385 17 22.6 8.1 .252
2014 359 27 13.3 7.6 .298
2015 497 30 16.6 5.7 .264
This year though, given regular playing time for the rebuilding Reds, Duvall has hit .245/.289/.535 with a surprising 23 home runs. Sure, a 22.8% HR/FB rate is likely unsustainable, but Duvall seems likely to hit 35 home runs, and for what amounts to a waiver wire pickup in most leagues, he's been a gold mine for fantasy owners.

The point of this piece though is not to tell you that Duvall has been a nice surprise, but to forecast who the next Adam Duvalls could be.

Here are a few guys off most fantasy owners' radars that you may want to pay some attention to:

Ryan Schimpf (2B-SD) - The 28-year-old is getting his first taste of big league pitching this season and it's certainly well deserved after he batted .255/.432/.729 in 190 PA's for Triple-A El Paso earlier in the year. With the Padres, Schimpf is at .217/.337/.536 with five home runs and a .50 K/BB

While progressing through the Giants' farm system, Adam Duvall always put up good power numbers, but his lack of ability to consistently hit for average and draw walks has held him back. He also is in his age-27 year, so you can certainly understand why the Giants elected to include him in the Mike Leake trade.

Year AB HR AB/HR BB% AVG
2011 431 22 19.6 11.6 .285
2012 534 30 17.8 7.9 .258
2013 385 17 22.6 8.1 .252
2014 359 27 13.3 7.6 .298
2015 497 30 16.6 5.7 .264
This year though, given regular playing time for the rebuilding Reds, Duvall has hit .245/.289/.535 with a surprising 23 home runs. Sure, a 22.8% HR/FB rate is likely unsustainable, but Duvall seems likely to hit 35 home runs, and for what amounts to a waiver wire pickup in most leagues, he's been a gold mine for fantasy owners.

The point of this piece though is not to tell you that Duvall has been a nice surprise, but to forecast who the next Adam Duvalls could be.

Here are a few guys off most fantasy owners' radars that you may want to pay some attention to:

Ryan Schimpf (2B-SD) - The 28-year-old is getting his first taste of big league pitching this season and it's certainly well deserved after he batted .255/.432/.729 in 190 PA's for Triple-A El Paso earlier in the year. With the Padres, Schimpf is at .217/.337/.536 with five home runs and a .50 K/BB in 83 PA's. Schimpf has hit at least 20 homers in the minors in each of the last four seasons, but like Duvall, hitting for a consistent average has been a challenge. Last year in 31 games for Triple-A Buffalo in the Blue Jays organization for example, Schimpf hit just .200. The fact that Corey Spangenberg is out indefinitely with a torn quad (and really isn't that good anyway) leaves Schimpf competing with the uninspiring likes of Adam Rosales and Alexi Amarista for playing time. Expect Schimpf to play mostly against RHP this year, and while he's a long shot to carve out consistent playing time beyond this year, so was Duvall.

Peter O'Brien (OF-ARI) - Defensive limitations and a lack of plate discipline have limited O'Brien to 72 big league plate appearances at the age of 26. In that time, he's hit just .123/.167/.333, but four of his seven hits have left the yard. For Triple-A Reno this year, O'Brien is batting .313/.341/.651, though in that thin air, it's tough to really project him at the big league level. That said, he's shown power in his brief time in Arizona. O'Brien's walk rate for Reno is just 3.7% this year versus 5.8% in 2015, and Triple-A pitchers are inducing him to strike out more than 29 percent of the time. If O'Brien had been able to stick at catcher, he'd likely have far more than 72 MLB PA's, but that doesn't appear to be an option in Arizona. The fact that both A.J. Pollock and David Peralta are on the DL with O'Brien still in Reno speaks volumes. He's a change-of- scenery candidate.

Gordon Beckham (2B-ATL) - Beckham has started six of the past nine games at second base, but he still has Jace Peterson (.356 OBP) to deal with there, and while Adonis Garcia is batting just .257/.297/.362 over at third base, he's still getting regular playing time. However, Beckham is making a decent case to get at least semi-regular at-bats, batting .262/.354/.429. That probably makes him a trade candidate given he's on a one-year deal, but Beckham being shipped to a contender likely hurts his 2016 value given the fact that contending teams are highly unlikely to use Beckham as much as the Braves have. Longer term, if he can finish somewhere in the range of where he's hitting now, Beckham will at least secure a major league contract. Whether he's anything more than a utility guy going forward is still to be determined.

Brett Eibner (OF-KC) - Eibner had been out of the lineup for four consecutive games when he got the start Wednesday, so it wasn't a huge surprise to see him go 0-for-4 and drop to .266/.319/.500. The SLG% is the standout number in that slash line, and it represents Eibner's four home runs and six doubles in just 64 at-bats. Eibner had been hitting .288/.385/.516 for Triple-A Omaha, including 11 home runs and five steals in 50 games. He's shown 20 HR/15 SB ability in the minors and this year in Omaha, Eibner had posted a strong 13.7% BB% and 21.9% K%. These certainly aren't spectacular numbers, but they are solid enough to hope Eibner can carve out a role as a fourth outfielder. Right now he's in that role, but with Lorenzo Cain (hamstring) due back soon, Eibner's playing time will likely take a further hit.

Andrew Toles (OF-LAD) - With his off-field issues apparently behind him, Toles is getting a fresh start with the Dodgers after the third-round pick flamed out in Tampa Bay. Toles' rise this year can be described as meteoric given he's gone from High-A Rancho Cucamonga all the way to the big leagues. In the minors this year, Toles has hit .330/.375/.507 with 36 XBH and 23 SB in 73 games. Toles is a great athlete who is still just 24, and while his minor league walk rates have hovered in the 5.5%-6% range, the tools are obviously still there. It's hard to see him carving out much of a role in LA, but perhaps some team will notice his production and give him a legitimate shot next season.

Jefry Marte (1B/3B/OF-LAA) - While we all ponder what a Mike Trout deal would bring to a decrepit Angels' farm system, let's see if Marte can be a small piece of the next Anaheim contender. Marte hit .325/.398/.532 in 44 games as a 17-year-old in the Gulf Coast League, but unfortunately that was eight years ago and he's done little since. He's hit .224/.276/.411 with five home runs in 107 at-bats for the Angels this year after posting a .761 OPS in Triple-A. He has some raw power and Marte did improve his Triple-A BB% to 11.6% this year, so there's at least been a little progress. At this point he's looking like a role player in the big leagues, with a big leap forward seeming increasingly unlikely.

Kennys Vargas (1B/DH-MIN) - Maybe the Twins can give up on him and let him sign with the Red Sox to be their DH, which seems to have worked for Boston in the past. Vargas showed some promise in 2014 before regressing to .240/.277/.349 in 184 PA's with the Twins last year, but so far so good in 2016 - .344/.462/.813 in a small sample size of 39 PA's. Three of Vargas' 17 home runs this year have come at the big league level, so he's shown good power and his 15.5% Triple-A BB% is impressive. Vargas is listed at a mammoth 6-foot5, 289-pounds, and if he can continue to show excellent plate discipline at the big league level, the Twins will find a way to work him in with Joe Mauer and Miguel Sano at the DH and 1B positions. He's a sneaky source of power both this year and potentially, long term.

Aaron Hicks (OF-NYY) - Hicks has been relegated to fourth outfielder status in New York, and considering his .197/.261/.301 slash line, he's lucky to still be on the roster. So is there any hope for the guy who had an .841 OPS as a 22-year-old in Double-A four years ago? Considering her has over 1,000 big league at-bats and is hitting a cumulative .220/.298/.340, there wouldn't appear to be much hope. Hicks is still just 26 and very athletic, but he's barely hitting left-handers anymore (.155 in 71 at-bats). The clock is ticking and I'm not all that optimistic.

Jarrett Parker (OF-SF) - With Hunter Pence sidelined, I really thought Parker would get a long look in the outfield, but manager Bruce Bochy appears to favor Gregor Blanco's defense and speed over Parker's power. I'm not going to argue with Bochy, but it would be nice to see Parker get a real opportunity. As a big-leaguer over the last two years, Parker has hit .285/.379/.536 with 11 home runs in just 151 at-bats. He also had a .981 OPS in Triple-A this season. The lefty-swinging Parker is batting just .118 in 34 at-bats against southpaws this year, so he may have the ceiling of a platoon player, but given semi-regular at-bats, I think he can be highly productive.

Tim Beckham (2B/SS/3B-TB) - I was going to write about Beckham before I saw that he had five hits Wednesday, but either way, I still find it difficult to give up on No. 1 overall draft pick who Rays scouts once thought was a better selection than Buster Posey. Of course, Beckham entered his big night batting a paltry .175 in 103 at-bats, so we won't get too excited, but I'm still not quite ready to stop looking for his name in box scores. Maybe a change of scenery will help next year, but don't rule him as a possible value-add later this year despite current starting shortstop Brad Miller sitting with 15 home runs.

Clint Robinson (1B-WAS) - The 31-year-old Robinson hit a solid .272/.358/.424 in 126 games for the Nationals last year filling in for various injured players, but the playing time has yet to be there for him in 2016. He's suffered for it, batting just .216/.276/.387 in 111 at-bats this year. Given his advanced age, Robinson would have to benefit from multiple injuries to have any sort of real fantasy value, but he's at least worth a look in DFS leagues while Ryan Zimmerman is on the DL. The lefty has some interesting reverse platoon splits, so take note.

Quad-A Types?

Casey McGehee (3B-DET) - Isn't it about time for another McGehee resurrection? After driving in 104 runs for the Brewers in 2010, McGehee fell off the map, resurrected his career in Japan, and returned to hit .287/.355/.357 with 76 RBI for the Marlins in 2014. Another fall-off subsequently ensued last year, but McGehee is now batting .327/.377/.464 for Triple-A Toledo. With 3B Nick Castellanos having a breakout season (17 HR) in Detroit, there's no need for McGehee's services for the time being, but it's always possible we'll see him back in some team's starting lineup this year. The 33-year-old may not be quite done just yet.

Scott Schebler (OF-CIN) - Once considered a competitor or at least a potential platoon-mate for Adam Duvall, Schebler hit just .188/.246/.344 in 64 at-bats for the Reds before being sent to Triple-A where's been ever since. There, Schebler has hit a solid .290/.351/.510 with 10 homers in 245 at-bats, but the 25-year-old doesn't appear close to returning to the big leagues. Perhaps a Jay Bruce trade will get Schebler a second look, but sometimes you only get one chance, and it's possible Schebler has already received his. His 5.5% Triple-A BB% is a bit troubling, and after bashing 55 homers between 2013 and 2014, Schebler has stalled a bit. We haven't seen the last of him in the big leagues, but Schebler may no longer be a potential everyday option.

Steven Moya (OF-DET) - Moya has hit as many as 35 home runs in the minors, but he's continued to exhibit a severe case of Reggie Abercrombie disease with his high strikeout totals and low walk rates. This year in Triple-A though, he's cut his K% to 21.1% compared to 30.3% at the same level in 2015, but Moya's BB% remains an unhealthy 3.9%. In addition, the 24-year-old has fanned in 35.9% of his 128 career MLB plate appearances. This year in Detroit, Moya has five home runs in 89 at-bats, but his K:BB is an ugly 34:5. It would be fun to see how he'd fare if given consistent at-bats over a 2-to-3 month period, but the Tigers aren't exactly rebuilding, so it's hard to see that happening. I'd love to see a change of scenery here.

Kyle Jensen (OF-ARI) - The 28-year-old has yet to make his MLB debut, but considering he's hitting .302/.359/.575 for Triple-A Reno with 20 homers in 90 games, a September call-up at a minimum seems inevitable. Like many others on this list, strikeouts are an issue (30.8% K% this year), but the power is not just a result of the desert air in Reno, as he's notched 20-homer seasons five times in his career. Jensen hasn’t hit above .260 since 2011, but if he can keep up even a .280 clip, we should see him in Arizona, particularly if the outfield suffers additional injuries.

Rob Segedin (3B-LAD) - Like Jensen, the 27-year-old Segedin has yet to make his MLB debut, but given he's batting .305/.383/.578 for Triple-A Oklahoma City, he's on the team's radar to be sure. Considering he's never hit more than 10 home runs in a season but has 17 this year, you have to either be impressed with what he's doing or perhaps suspicious of what he's ingesting. Segedin was a third-round pick (2010) out of college, so he was fairly highly regarded at one point, and there's always the possibility that he's a late bloomer. The Dodgers have quite a bit of depth at third base and the outfield, but Segedin has the potential to at least force his way into a utility role at some point soon.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
David Regan
David Regan is a six-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association award winner, including the 2015 Baseball Article of the Year and the 2010 Baseball Writer of the Year.
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