Regan's Rumblings: Running the Numbers
Regan's Rumblings: Running the Numbers

This article is part of our Regan's Rumblings series.

With advanced metrics freely available on sites such as RotoWire, FanGraphs, and Baseball Prospectus, the amount of information available to fantasy owners is staggering. Most recently, we have things like exit velocity to look at (see future article), and we can even measure when a guy changes his swing to get more loft on the ball (Justin Turner being a recent example). This week we'll discuss hard hit rate and swinging strike rate, taking a look at a handful of pitchers and hitters that stood out when I ran the numbers.

Non-superstars with a superstar hard hit rate

The thought here is to look at guys that are hitting the ball hard and determining whether their slash line/overall performance is going to improve, stay the same, or take a dive.

Hard hit rate in parentheses. 31.5% is league average

Nick Castellanos (3B-DET, 57.1%)

Castellanos is 7-for-17 in his last four games, so perhaps he's picking thing up. Castellanos leads the league in hard hit rate, but he's still hitting just .252/.319/.466. A 29.2% K% is largely to blame, and his FB% is a bit low at 32.9%, but when a guy is hitting the ball that hard, good thing should be happening. Castellanos had a mini-breakout last year when he improved his OPS over 2015 by 105 points, batting .285/.331/.496. I am encouraged by the walk rate improving from 6.3% to 8%, so once he starts putting the bat on the ball with increased frequency, the results should improve.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
David Regan
David Regan is a six-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association award winner, including the 2015 Baseball Article of the Year and the 2010 Baseball Writer of the Year.
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