Farm Futures: Emerging Upside Arms

Triston McKenzie, Walker Buehler, Ian Anderson, and Sixto Sanchez (to name a few) have all improved their stock since the start of the season, but it will be difficult to acquire those guys in serious dynasty leagues. We were all aware of their potential prior to the season.

In this piece, I will attempt to shine a light on some pitchers who could be part of the next crop of top 100 dynasty league prospects. These pitchers were likely unowned heading into the year, but have really improved their stock to the point that now is the time to grab them in deeper dynasty leagues. The No. 1 rule with pitching prospects is to chase the guys with significant upside, and most of these guys have that in spades.

High-A

Seranthony Dominguez, RHP, Clearwater (Phillies): 3.29 FIP, 0.97 WHIP, 38:10 K:BB in 31 IP.
Rank: 157
Age: 22
Height: 6-foot-1
Weight: 185 pounds

Dominguez features a big fastball that sits in the 95-98 mph range and a sharp mid-80s slider, while also mixing in an above average changeup and occasionally dropping in a curveball. He spent his first three professional seasons in Rookie ball, and in 2014 he was used exclusively out of the bullpen in the Gulf Coast League, so he is a little older than the typical top shelf High-A pitching prospect. However, when it comes to pitching prospects, they don't all develop at the same pace and it is therefore less of a red flag when a guy is a little older than it would be for a hitter, as long as the stuff checks out. Not only does Dominguez have the stuff to project as a No. 2 or No. 3 starter, but he has shown impressive control this year, working with a manageable 8.4 percent walk rate. Unlike the Braves, the Phillies don't have a ton of high-end pitching prospects, so the ones with legitimate upside will be given a pretty long leash in the coming years before getting pushed to a relief role, which will work in Dominguez's favor. If he ever does move to the bullpen, he could be a monster, as his fastball would likely touch triple digits with regularity.

Vladimir Gutierrez, RHP, Daytona (Reds): 1.79 FIP, 1.22 WHIP, 32:4 K:BB in 26.1 IP.
Rank: 189
Age: 21
Height: 6-foot
Weight: 190 pounds

Considering Gutierrez's age, height and the knowledge that his fastball and curveball both had plus potential, while his other secondaries reportedly lagged behind, it was easy to foresee him following in the footsteps of previous Cuban pitching prospects in this system, Aroldis Chapman and Raisel Iglesias, and end up in the bullpen long term. However, unlike Chapman and Iglesias, Gutierrez began his professional career in the lower levels, giving the Reds more time to develop him as a starter. At a glance, he appears to have the necessary ingredients to stick in a rotation, showcasing pinpoint control and an ability to turn a lineup over several times -- his last start was a seven-inning/nine-strikeout gem against Fort Myers, where 66 of his 86 pitches went for strikes. He could make it as a No. 3 starter, which would be a major coup for Cincinnati, as they netted him for a $9.5 million commitment (after the 100 percent tax on his $4.75 million bonus), and could sorely use some of the high-upside arms in the system to stick in the starting rotation.

Hector Perez, RHP, Buies Creek (Astros): 2.36 FIP, 1.08 WHIP, 37:15 K:BB in 26 IP.
Rank: 219
Age: 20
Height: 6-foot-3
Weight: 190 pounds

As with all the pitchers covered in this piece, and for that matter, the vast majority of arms in the lower levels, there is significant bullpen risk with Perez -- just look at that walk rate. However, he has No. 2 starter upside if he everything comes together, and that makes him highly relevant in deep dynasty leagues. Perez features a plus fastball and flashes a plus slider while also utilizing an average curveball and a developing splitter that he only recently added to his repertoire. So far 16 of the 29 baserunners he has allowed between Low-A and High-A this year have come via the walk or hit by pitch, which speaks to his below-average control and how tough it is to get a hit off him. His control needs the most refinement among the five High-A pitchers covered here, but he may also have the most upside of the bunch.

Taylor Hearn, LHP, Bradenton (Pirates): 3.30 FIP, 1.08 WHIP, 38:10 K:BB in 32.1 IP.
Rank: 220
Age: 22
Height: 6-foot-5
Weight: 210 pounds

Like Dominguez, Hearn is a little old for an electric hurler at High-A, but there are legitimate reasons for this. He has dealt with injuries in the past (strained UCL, fractured humerus, broken foot) and was being primarily developed as a reliever with the Nationals, prior to being the second piece Pittsburgh got back in last year's Mark Melancon deal. However, since joining the Bucs, he has been developed as a starter and his big fastball has sat in the mid-90s, making it a potential 80-grade pitch from the left side. His slider is his next best pitch -- an inconsistent offering that can flash wipeout potential but can also look average when he fails to command it. While his changeup lags well behind as his third best pitch, that should not come as a surprise, given the fact that he only made 15 professional starts when in the Nationals' system. His command is shaky, and there is plenty of bullpen risk, but for those looking for high-risk/high-reward arms in deeper leagues, you can do a lot worse than a big lefty at High-A who touches 99 mph.

Freddy Peralta, RHP, Carolina (Brewers): 3.92 FIP, 1.22 WHIP, 41:14 K:BB in 27 IP.
Rank: 260
Age: 20
Height: 5-foot-11
Weight: 175 pounds

As with most righties under six feet tall, Peralta will have his doubters all the way up the ladder, and will likely need to prove he can be an effective big-league starter before the masses buy in. That said, his low arm slot allows his stuff to play up against same-handed hitters, and he has the three-pitch mix necessary to survive against left-handed hitters. His low-90s fastball has good late life and his changeup and slider both have a chance to be a plus offerings down the road. The biggest thing he needs to work on is throwing more strikes, although so far he has probably benefited from regularly living outside the zone, as his stuff is so deceptive that lower-level hitters have a hard time laying off his offspeed pitches when they get behind in the count. He has the potential to be a high-end super reliever, capable of getting five or six outs, but don't sleep on his chances of making it as a high-strikeout/high-WHIP mid-rotation arm.

Low-A

Adonis Medina, RHP, Lakewood (Phillies): 2.62 FIP, 1.32 WHIP, 30:8 K:BB in 25 IP.
Rank: 205
Age: 20
Height: 6-foot-1
Weight: 185 pounds

While Medina has never posted an ERA above 3.00 in 161.1 innings across four stops as a professional, this is actually the first level where he has posted a strikeout rate above 20 percent (27.3 percent). He was a legitimate prospect coming into the year (cracking the top 10 on most Phillies lists), but could be left unowned in most dynasty leagues, as the strikeouts just weren't there. No longer. Those who bet on the strikeouts coming are reaping the rewards, as the Phillies appear to have taken the training wheels off this year and let Medina's impressive repertoire loose on the Sally League. His low-to-mid-90s fastball has plus potential, as do his slider and changeup, and he can also mix in an average curveball as a show-me pitch. It's a more advanced combination of pitches and command than any of the High-A pitchers touched on above, but there might be more mid-rotation upside than frontline potential, as none of his pitches project as monsters.

Logan Allen, LHP, Fort Wayne (Padres): 2.28 FIP, 0.96 WHIP, 34:11 K:BB in 24 IP.
Rank: 252
Age: 19
Height: 6-foot-3
Weight: 200 pounds

Before the season Allen looked more like a high-probability No. 4 or No. 5 starter, but it's hard to look at a big lefty with a low-90s fastball and a plus curveball who is posting a 35.4 percent strikeout rate as a 19-year-old in full-season ball as simply a back-end arm. He has added a tick of fastball velocity, and while he is walking too many batters, his 24.0 K-BB percentage is still elite. He understandably gets lost in the shuffle when talking about the high-upside arms in the Padres' system, but Allen should pitch in the big-league rotation someday if he stays healthy, and if he improves his changeup and develops average command, he could be at least a No. 3 starter.

Dustin May, RHP, Great Lakes (Dodgers): 2.42 FIP, 1.07 WHIP, 22:5 K:BB in 24.1 IP.
Rank: 262
Age: 19
Height: 6-foot-6
Weight: 180 pounds

May offers an excellent combination of projectability and current production. He sports a low-90s fastball, but should be able to add velocity in the coming years as he adds muscle to his lean frame and gets more exposure to the Dodgers' weighted ball program. The lanky ginger already boasts a swing-and-miss slider and above average command, so if he can just develop an average changeup, he should be able to make it as a mid-rotation starter. If, like many other recent Dodgers draft picks, his stuff jumps a grade or two in the coming years, he could end up being much more than that.

Tony Santillan, RHP, Dayton (Reds): 4.28 FIP, 1.39 WHIP, 35:18 K:BB in 33 IP.
Rank: 281
Age: 20
Height: 6-foot-3
Weight: 240 pounds

Of the 10 pitchers covered in this piece, Santillan might have the most bullpen risk, which is saying something. However, he has the potential to be a dominant closer, and there remains the slight chance that he could be an inning-eating mid-rotation starter who averages more than a strikeout per inning. He generates excellent downward plane on his high-90s fastball, and features a monster slider, which could give him a pair of plus-plus offerings down the road. He works extremely quickly, which only adds to the narrative that he is more of a thrower than a pitcher. It's possible he never has enough feel for his changeup for it to be more than a fringe-average offering, but the bigger hurdle will be throwing enough strikes to stick in the rotation. His 12.8 percent walk rate represents a huge improvement over last year's 17.4 percent mark at the same level. While he still walks way too many batters, it's at least encouraging that he is making improvements in that department. The last thing the Reds need is another failed starting pitching prospect who moves to the bullpen, so Santillan should have a pretty long leash as a starter, and won't turn 21 until next April.

Bryse Wilson, RHP, Rome (Braves): 3.24 FIP, 1.14 WHIP, 29:12 K:BB in 26.1 IP.
Rank: 383
Age: 19
Height: 6-foot-1
Weight: 225 pounds

Not only is it easy to overlook Wilson in the system with the most pitching depth in the game, but it's easy to neglect him just in the Braves' 2016 draft class, as he received a lower bonus than Ian Anderson, Joey Wentz or Kyle Muller. Still, he netted a respectable above-slot $1.2 million bonus in the fourth round, which pried him away from a commitment to North Carolina. A football standout in high school, Wilson is very athletic and well built for a 19-year-old, and features a mid-90s fastball that can touch 97 when he really reaches back. His secondaries are farther behind than any of the other pitchers featured in this article, but his slider could develop into an above average pitch. Whether he sticks in the rotation will hinge on the development of his changeup and his ability to capably command his pitches. He has a live arm, but should remain under the radar for now, given the depth surrounding him in this system flush with high-end pitching talent.