Oak's Corner: Looking Back at May

The Month That Was

Since we are just finishing up another month of baseball, I am going to mix it up a little bit from my usual look back at the week and look at some interesting players and stats from the month of May and how I feel about them moving forward.
• Justin Bour had a monster May, leading all of MLB with 11 homers while hitting .344 with a 1.156 OPS. With his 15 homers on the year, he has now matched his total from 2016 when he played 90 games. While Bour's fly ball rate has stayed the same at 34.1 percent, he significantly has ramped up his hard hit rate up to 48.5 percent, good for third best in all of baseball behind only Miguel Sano and Freddie Freeman. Bour is hitting .288 on the season and while he might not end up that high, one of the appeals to Bour in the preseason was that along with some power upside, he didn't have the batting average downside of other power hitters, as Bour has topped .260 in all of three prior seasons in the majors. Bour's strikeouts are up a bit to 22.9 percent, but that's still a manageable number for his profile, and if he can keep some of the hard hit gains (and stay healthy, his issue in 2016), I like him to be a solid fantasy contributor the rest of the way.

• Anthony Rizzo has contributed 12 homers and tossed in five steals so far, but the concern with Rizzo stems from his .227 batting average through 51 games. After hitting .260 in the first month of the season, Rizzo struggled in May with a brutal .194 average over 27 games. A closer look at Rizzo's profile so far this year yields some surprising results, including his career-low 11.5 percent strikeout rate. Rizzo has never been below 15 percent in his career and actually has more walks (29) than strikeouts (27). The concern for Rizzo so far comes from his batted ball profile, where his hard hit rate checks in at only 29.9 percent, good for 125th in baseball (curiously enough, his teammate Kris Bryant is only at 29.8 percent). Rizzo has never been among the elite in hard hit rate, but this current rate would be the lowest since his 2011 season, his initial call-up to the majors. With his low strikeout rate and current .206 babip (his career babip is .284) his average is going to rise, but with the league hitting homers at a near record pace, it's hard to see him returning value for his ADP with his current lack of hard contact. If he has an owner frustrated with the .227, I'd love to buy low on him, but he'd have to come at a discount.

• If anyone thought Jake Lamb's April was fluky, he answered that with a excellent May. Lamb hit .294 in May with nine homers and 24 RBI, both numbers that put him top five in MLB for the month. Lamb sports a solid 38.4 percent hard hit rate and benefits from both a fantastic home park and lineup spot. Everyone knows I love Lamb (to be fair, I do say it too much), and while the average likely is going to come down from his current .289, I'm not looking to trade Lamb in leagues in which I own him and I'm okay paying full price to acquire him. Here's hoping the Diamondbacks realize their home record is exceptional (21-8) and don't install the rumored humidor and potentially mess with that success.

• Manny Machado is a tough guy to figure out right now. The consensus first rounder has been a large disappointment so far, hitting a mere .205 through 50 games. Machado was particularly brutal in May, hitting .191 in 115 at-bats with only 12 runs and 12 RBI. The one negative that sticks out from his stat line so far is the increased strikeouts with his current K Rate a career-high 21.9 percent, up nearly five percent from 2016. A look at his batted ball profile paints a much better picture for Machado. His hard hit rate currently stands at 40.8 percent, which would be a career high, although he had hit fewer line drives than usual at only 11.2 percent. The number that stands out is his .218 babip, which is in stark contrast to his career mark of .303. With his hard hit rate, that babip number is going to rise and bring his batting average with it. His owner likely isn't looking to move Machado, but if you find someone fed up with him after his horrible month, it would be wise to grab Machado now at any possible discount, no matter how small it is.

• Robbie Ray was a tough guy for me to figure out in drafts and continues to be during the season. His strikeouts were great in 2016 (11.25 K/9), but the walks were a bit high (3.67 BB/9), as were the homers and the WHIP, and on top of all that, he pitches in a tough park. He gave up nearly 37 percent hard hit balls in 2016 so I moved him down on my draft sheet to a point where I drafted him in zero leagues. Well, he was one of the better pitchers in baseball in May with a 2.56 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP while striking out 45 in 38.2 innings. His swinging K rate is up to 13.2 percent, further supporting the high strikeouts this season, which currently sit at 10.96 K/9, placing him sixth in MLB among starting pitchers. Of course, then I look at his hard hit rate so far this season and it sits at 42.9 percent, which is the absolute highest in the league, although he has brought it down from April's 48.9 percent. Even with the now-established strikeouts, that number of hard hit balls still scares me with him pitching half of his games in Chase Field. His babip is currently at .256 and his batting average against sits at .190, numbers that I can't see not rising significantly considering how many hard hit balls he allows. I'd look to trade him at the moment, but I'm not afraid to admit that I have been dead wrong on him through two months, and it's possible I have a blind spot to his profile. On most players, I feel good about where I think they'll head the rest of the way, but I'm not sure what Ray's line will be at the end of the season. Anything you see that I'm clearly missing in his profile?

• I have already written about Craig Kimbrel a few weeks ago, but I had to note that this dude had a 0.16 WHIP in May. That is impossible right? Nope, he gave up one walk and one hit in 12.2 innings while striking out 25 in the month. Even more impossibly, right-handed hitters are now 0-for-48 this season against him. C'mon.
  

FAAB Feelings

Whit Merrifield: While the Royals offense has struggled most of the season, Merrifield has stepped nicely up for the Royals since taking over the second base job full-time after the demotion of Raul Mondesi Jr. Merrifield hit .319 in May with four homers and five stolen bases, extremely nice numbers considering he was available (and still is) as a free agent in a large majority of leagues. The six homers so far this year are a definite surprise, as Merrifield only hit two homers in 81 games last season and the increased fly balls could be a reason for the surge. After hitting only 29 percent fly balls in 2016, Merrifield has upped that to 39 percent, and his HR/FB rate has soared from 2.9 percent to 14.6 percent. His hard hit rate is a decent 33.9 percent, so while his HR/FB likely will come down some, he should keep hitting with a little bit of pop. His batting average looks like a positive, as he has now hit .286 over two seasons in 117 games. That sort of batting average help with some sneaky pop and speed and is an auto-pick up in 15-teamers if available (he is already owned in 81.8 percent of NFBC 15-team Main Event teams), but he also should be added by anyone needing a MI in 12-teamers, as he's only owned by 9.6 percent of the teams in the NFBC 12-team format.

Jaime Garcia: Garcia has been fortunate so far with his 3.18 ERA as he has held batters to a .242 babip, which helps explain the 4.36 FIP that he currently carries. Garcia gets two home starts this week, and while the Mets have been scoring well over the last month, the other start is against the Phillies who have been scuffling badly, averaging only 3.5 runs per game over their last 28 contests. Garcia's strikeouts this year are a concern, dropping from 7.86 K/9 to 5.78 K/9, but his swinging strike rate has remained steady at 9.3 percent, perhaps giving some hope at he will return to his prior strikeout levels as the season progresses. The most positive aspect to Garcia's 2017 profile, and a number that has helped his babip stay lower than normal, is his ability to suppress hard contact so far with a 26 percent hard hit rate. Further, he has maintained his excellent ground ball profile, ranking seventh in baseball with a 57.1 percent ground ball rate. Garcia isn't an especially sexy add, but if can continue to pair a solid hard hit rate with his consistently strong ground ball rate, that is a pretty nice combo to maintain decent ratios; and decent ratios can be hard to find this season in FAAB. Garcia is only owned in 26.6 percent of NFBC 12-teamers and I'll look to add him this week wherever I need an arm.

Dinelson Lamet Lamet has made two starts since getting called up by the Padres and they have both been excellent. He has allowed three runs in 10 innings with an impressive 16 strikeouts against only three walks. Lamet exhibited an excellent strikeout rate in 39 Triple-A innings this year with 11.54 K/9, but the walks were an issue at 4.62 BB/9. The walks are my biggest concern with him going forward, but the strike outs look legit based on his history in the minors and his excellent 15.9 percent swinging K rate so far in his two starts. It's hard to find big strikeout guys in FAAB, and while Lamet was added in many leagues last week, he is still only 35.3 percent owned across NFBC 12-teamers and he's projected for two starts next week. The second start of the week is a nice matchup home against the Royals, but the first start is the concerning one, as he gets the Diamondbacks at Chase Field where they tend to mash early and often. That start scares me, but with the nice matchup in the second start and strikeout upside, I'm going to risk it and am putting bids on him this week. He will be a popular bid this week with two starts, but with his strikeout rate, he might be someone I want to keep beyond this week so I know I have to bid on him this week if I want to get him. If he's still available in your 15-teamer, I'd make an aggressive bid, but I'm also bidding in 12-teamers this week too.

A Closer Look

Now that Edwin Diaz seems to have moved back into the closer role, there are actually not many closer situations currently in flux, which is a rarity compared to most seasons at this point. Tony Watson blew another save on Monday and as discussed last week in the column, the Pirates remain a situation where I would speculate, as Watson could lose the job due to performance or trade. The Padres seemed to be playing match-ups between Brad Hand and Brandon Maurer, but went to Maurer for the last three save opportunities so they may be leaning back to Maurer as the main guy. Without any situations completely up in the air, I thought it would be a good time to look at the Angels to see what they may do in the next week or so.

Cam Bedrosian was not formally named by the closer by Mike Scioscia coming out of the spring as the team was apparently going with a closer by a committee, but after converting three saves in his first six appearances, the job was clearly his even without a formal announcement. Bedrosian was great to start the year, allowing no runs over 6.2 innings while striking out nine and walking none. He was placed on the DL on April 22nd and there was very little news on his progress until recently and it now appears that he will be back sometime next week. After dropping a 1.12 ERA in 2016 over 40.1 innings with 11.38 K/9, he is uniformly considered the closer of the future of the Angels.

Bud Norris has surprisingly filled in quite well as the Angels closer since Bedrosian went on the DL making the situation a bit more complicated that anyone thought it may be when Bedrosian first went on the DL. Norris has a 2.84 in 25.1 innings and has ramped up his strikeout rate to a career-high 11.72 K/9 while converting ten of his 12 save opportunities. Norris' swinging strike rate, under 10 percent for the past four seasons, has spiked all the way to 12.9 percent, so the strikeout bump is pretty well supported. Surprisingly, Scioscia went to Jose Alvarez to close the game on Thursday night due to some lefties coming up, but Alvarez blew the save. To add to the Norris 2017 mystique, his velocity is up to 94.1, which is the highest average fastball velocity he has ever had in the majors. So while everyone just assumes, "well it's Bud Norris," he has been legitimately good so far. One never knows what Mike Scioscia is going to do, but with the job Norris has done, I am guessing he stays in the role until he falters and Bedrosian works as a dominant setup guy. Bedrosian is the guy long-term and I have tried to add him wherever he as dropped, but as Norris continues to pitch well, I now think the job is his until he gives Scioscia a reason to take it from him.

Series of the Weekend

Yankees at Blue Jays. The Blue Jays were brutal in April and left for dead by many, but they bounced back in a huge way in May, going 18-10 and winning eight of their last ten. They enter June with a big four-game series against the Yankees who they trail in the division by only 6.5 games after losing to them Thursday night. If they stay hot this weekend, they could close the gap even more and could be very much in the race, a thought that seemed crazy just a month ago. Their lineup, much maligned in April (they ranked 28th in runs with only 89 runs), has seen the return of Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki and finished May with 148 runs, ranking 7th in MLB, way more in line with pre-season projections and their 2016 production.

The Yankees will throw their two best pitchers so far this year, Michael Pineda and Luis Severino, at the Jays this weekend in an attempt to cool the hot Jays. Pineda still has some home run issues (1.66 K/9), but he has lowered his hard hit rate and also dropped his walks from last year while maintaining his strikeouts. Fantasy owners have been waiting for Pineda to live up to his impressive talent and metrics in New York and we might finally be seeing that happen this year. After an extremely disappointing 2016, Severino has been exceptional so far in 2017 with a 2.93 ERA to go along with an impressive K:BB ratio of 69:15. Watching these two against the finally healthy Blue Jays lineup should be a lot of fun.

The Jays get Francisco Liriano back this weekend and he could be the key to their chances to get back in the race in the AL East. Liriano was brutal to start 2017 before hitting the DL, but has the upside the Jays need in their rotation to pair with the solid arms of Marco Estrada and Marcus Stroman. Liriano's issues are always the walks and his 7.31 BB/9 were a huge problem in his first seven starts this season. He does not get a soft landing spot with the Yankees who rank third in MLB with a .793 team OPS. After losing the first game of the series on Thursday night, the Jays need to win two of the next third to ensure they don't give back the gains they made in May. This should be a series full of fireworks, but also one that spotlights some good young starting pitchers in Severino, Pineda and Stroman.