This article is part of our Regan's Rumblings series.
FanGraphs has become one of my go-to sites for advanced metrics over the past couple of seasons. It's laid out well, easy to filter and create custom reports, and well, it doesn't hurt that it's free. RotoWire remains the best in the business for fantasy content and I think our player pages are laid out the best and are easily consumable, but if you want to go deeper, FanGraphs is a good source of information. We also provide their player notes.
In my brainstorming around what topic I wanted to cover in this week's Rumblings, I thought about closers after seeing that yes, Kenley Jansen really does have a 50:0 K:BB this year. Maybe I'll take a pass through the 30 bullpens next week, but this week, I was looking at the FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement (WAR) leaderboard for hitters. Mike Trout isn't listed because he's dropped below the minimum number of plate appearances required to qualify. Trout, though, still has a 3.3 WAR, which would rank third behind Aaron Judge (4.4) and Paul Goldschmidt (3.5). He's still got a shot to top the board at the end of the year.
Who are the 10 most surprising names in the top 50? Guys like Justin Turner, Freddie Freeman, and uber-rookie Cody Bellinger also don't have the required number of PA's, but I'm focusing here on guys that do. There are others on the top-50 like Logan Morrison who could have easily appeared below, but given space limitations, picking
FanGraphs has become one of my go-to sites for advanced metrics over the past couple of seasons. It's laid out well, easy to filter and create custom reports, and well, it doesn't hurt that it's free. RotoWire remains the best in the business for fantasy content and I think our player pages are laid out the best and are easily consumable, but if you want to go deeper, FanGraphs is a good source of information. We also provide their player notes.
In my brainstorming around what topic I wanted to cover in this week's Rumblings, I thought about closers after seeing that yes, Kenley Jansen really does have a 50:0 K:BB this year. Maybe I'll take a pass through the 30 bullpens next week, but this week, I was looking at the FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement (WAR) leaderboard for hitters. Mike Trout isn't listed because he's dropped below the minimum number of plate appearances required to qualify. Trout, though, still has a 3.3 WAR, which would rank third behind Aaron Judge (4.4) and Paul Goldschmidt (3.5). He's still got a shot to top the board at the end of the year.
Who are the 10 most surprising names in the top 50? Guys like Justin Turner, Freddie Freeman, and uber-rookie Cody Bellinger also don't have the required number of PA's, but I'm focusing here on guys that do. There are others on the top-50 like Logan Morrison who could have easily appeared below, but given space limitations, picking and choosing was the only option. Here are my 10:
Aaron Hicks (2.9 WAR, .306/.413/.556, 10 HR, 7 SB)
Hicks was expected to be the club's fourth outfielder this year, but with the injury to Jacoby Ellsbury, Hicks has played plenty. Ellsbury could return from his concussion issues later this month, but I'm pretty sure Hicks and his .969 OPS will continue to play fairly often. Putting Matt Holliday at first base and one of the outfielders at DH would open up a spot for Hicks to play every day, as would trading a guy like Brett Gardner, a rumor that has popped up on occasion in recent months/years. Hicks has always had talent, and it sure appears in his age-27 season, that he's finally tapping into it. His 15.5% BB% jumps out and Hicks makes excellent contact given his 17.4%. Another one that jumps out is his .250 ISO, a metric that has yet to even top .150 in his career. Is the power sustainable? Maybe not at this rate, but Hicks' hard hit rate (31.5%) is 3+ points above his career mark, though I'm not sure an 18.5% HR/FB rate is sustainable given his career mark is just 10.6%. I do believe in the improved plate discipline and his ability to hit .280+. I'm thinking something in the range of .280/.370/.480 the rest of the way with another 10 home runs and finishing with 15 or so steals.
Zack Cozart, SS, CIN (2.8 WAR, .320/.404/.562, 9 HR)
This has been an improbably All-Star season to say the least for Cozart. He entered the season with a .246/.289/.385 career mark in over 2,500 plate appearances with a 5.3% BB%. This year Cozart has a 12.5% BB% while showing unprecedented power with the .242 ISO. In terms of his batted ball data, there's really nothing remarkable. His hard hit rate is a little down over last year (but above his career %), his fly ball rate is unchanged, and while his 13.2% HR/FB rate is a little elevated over recent years, it's still not overly high. Cozart's average exit velocity (85.1 mph) is below league average (87.8 mph), making his .367 BABIP look unsustainable given it sits at .282 for his career. The improved plate discipline is a bit factor in projecting ROS performance, but there simply has to be some regression coming. He can get to 20 home runs given he's recorded two seasons of 15+ in his career, but the batting average is something I have a hard time seeing top .270 the rest of the way.
Ryan Zimmerman, 1B, WAS (2.1 WAR, .346/.387/.663, 19 HR)
I'm confident in asserting that after four consecutive years of declining OPS and averaging 90 games played from 2014-2016, no one saw this coming. Zimmerman has dropped off a little after batting .420 with 11 home runs in April and it's also a little alarming that he missed three games earlier this month with a back injury. He did homer twice after returning from that layoff, but he's also 3-for-25 in his last six games. I do buy some of the batting average improvement despite a .366 BABIP, as his hard hit rate is a career-high 41.7%, his line drives are up, and the ground balls are down. Zimmerman's 92.8 mph exit velocity is also well above league average. I'd probably try and sell high on Zimmerman given his injury history, but I do believe he can hit .300 and finish with 30-35 home runs IF he can stay healthy. I'm just not completely confident in that happening.
Avisail Garcia, OF, CHW (2.2 WAR, .332/.374/.538, 10 HR)
Garcia has shown us his potential in spurts over the last few years, but he's still a guy who put up sub-.700 OPS seasons in each of the past two seasons. Garcia is still just 26, and given that he made his big league debut after just 55 games above A-ball, perhaps he's just needed this time to truly realize his potential. He's absolutely raked in Triple-A in spurts in each of the last four years, and some guys just need time to settle in at the big league level. Garcia is walking at a low 4.1% clip, but he sure seems to be seeing the ball well and he did put up a 7.5% BB% last year, so I'm not overly concerned about his plate discipline. From a batted ball perspective, Garcia's hard hit rate and fly ball rate are up slightly over last year, though not noticeably so. I'd have to say given that he doesn't run well and that his 35.5% hard hit rate, while up, isn't at an elite level (see Miguel Sano's 51.1%), that his .404 BABIP is going to regress and drag his elevated BA down. 20-25 home runs I think is certainly attainable, but .280 with the BA is probably his ceiling the rest of the way. That could allow him to finish close to .300 the rest of the way which is certainly well above our .249 preseason projection.
Tim Beckham, SS, TB, (1.6 WAR, .283/.326/.445, 10 HR, 4 SB)
For a former #1 overall pick to have a 1.6+ WAR in mid-June isn't unprecedented by any means, but seeing this guy with a higher WAR than Robinson Cano and Giancarlo Stanton is pretty surprising. In fact, Beckham's career WAR prior to 2017 was just 1.2 in 446 PA's. Beckham's hard hit rate is borderline elite at 45.5% when you consider that league average this year is just 32.2%. Interestingly, Beckham's fly ball rate is down significantly this year by nine percentage points year-over-year to 27.2% thought he's pulling the ball a lot more and hitting a lot more line drives. Whatever the combination is, it's working. A .390 BABIP may not be sustainable, but then again, Beckham runs well and is hitting the ball hard, so I don't see a lot of BA regression coming. I'm not sold on him becoming a star anytime soon, particularly given the 5.3% BB% and 31.7% K%, but I can see him continuing to mature as a hitter given regular playing time.
In terms of playing time this year, Matt Duffy (heel) should return at some point, but Duffy is still apparently experiencing pain in his heel, so his return could come in July or in 2018. Until then, Beckham should hold down the position over lesser competition unless someone like Willy Adames continues to rake (.410 in the last 14 days) in Triple-A.
Jed Lowrie, 2B, OAK (1.9 WAR, .287/.358/.484, 8 HR)
I own zero shares of Lowrie and I seem to always find other options besides watching Oakland games, so seeing this line from Lowrie was somewhat surprising. Even more surprising given recent years is that Lowrie has been healthy enough to play in 67 of the team's 70 games. With Lowrie, we've at least seen close to this level of production before, at least in small increments. In 197 PA for the Red Sox in 2010, Lowrie hit .287/.381/.526, and in 2013 he batted .290/.344/.446. The extra power looks to be driven by a fly ball rate that has skyrocketed from 32% to 46.9% compared to last year. Perhaps he's been watching his teammate Yonder Alonso and how his swing change is going to lead to a nice free agent payday this winter. Lowrie's 8% HR/FB rate is a bit low, suggesting perhaps that given health, his first 20+ homer season is very possible. Other than another injury, this looks pretty sustainable.
Josh Harrison, 2B, PIT (2.0 WAR, .297/.366/.457, 8 HR, 6 SB)
2014 - .837
2015 - .717
2016 - .690
At this point, it seemed clear that 2014 was going to be Harrison's high-water mark and that he was probably headed for a utility role. Not so fast. He hasn't been quite as productive as he was in 2014, but it's close. Harrison's 5.9% BB% remains low, with a good portion of his OBP driven by a whopping 12 HBP's. Keep it up! His batted ball data has improved to 2014 levels as well:
| Year | GB% | HardHit% |
|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 37.3% | 31.8% |
| 2015 | 41.3% | 29.0% |
| 2016 | 44.3% | 27.7% |
| 2017 | 37.3% | 33.0% |
It may be conscious or unconscious, but it appears we have the 2014 Harrison back. One other factor of note is that Harrison was slowed by ankle and thumb injuries the past couple of years, so perhaps this is simply a matter of him being 100%. Either way, I have confidence in him going forward.
Starlin Castro, 2B, NYY (1.9 WAR, .324/.361/.511, 12 HR, 1 SB)
The stolen bases have dropped way off since the then-22 Castro swiped 25 in 2012, but this would easily be his best season should even 90% of his current level of production continue. Castro has seen minor increases in his fly ball and hard hit rates, and though his 16.2% HR/FB ratio is a bit elevated at 16.2%, he did post a 15% mark the year before. Castro seems to love Yankee Stadium, recording 15 homers at home last year and eight so far in 2017, so I can certainly buy him hitting upwards of 25 home runs given his 21 last year and the fact that he's still just 27. .324 may not be sustainable given a .362 BABIP (.321 career), but he hit .300+ twice early in his career, so .300 the rest of the way is doable.
Justin Bour, 1B, MIA (1.9 WAR, .307/.379/.614, 18 HR)
Bour is one of many first baseman launching home runs left and right, and though he did show good power the last couple of seasons, he's taken it to a new level this year, particularly with the improved power that wasn't bad in the first place. Bour is sporting one of the best hard hit rates in the big leagues at 46.8%. His ground ball rate is a bit high at 46.8%, but those hard ground balls are finding holes in the infield and when he does get the ball in the air, it's going a long way. Bour has good plate discipline with a 10.1% BB%, so there's really no red flags in terms of predicting a massive drop-off. Because he's done this before in smaller sample sizes, I see Bour being a lock for 30-35 home runs, possibly hitting in the .280-.290 range the rest of the way. It could be even better if he can continue to show improvement against southpaws, against whom he entered Tuesday's action batting .378/.451/.822 after posting OPS totals of .533 and .573 the previous two seasons.
Marcell Ozuna, OF, MIA (2.8 WAR, .327/.395/.582, 18 HR)
Note: Ozuna hit HR #19 on Tuesday
I'm going to reserve judgment here, because in 2016, Ozuna batted .307/.360/.533 before the All-Star break and .209/.267/.342 after. As per usual, Ozuna is faring well versus LHP at .347/.457/.429, but the different so far is that he's seeming seeing pitches better from right-handed pitchers with a .322/.379/.617 slash versus OPS totals of .732 and .646 in 2015 and 2016. Overall, Ozuna has shown notable improvement in his walk rate with a 10.2% BB% versus a pre-2017 career-best of 7.1% (2016). His hard hit rate (43.3%) is way up and well above league average. A 29% HR/FB rate would seem to be very unsustainable, but it wouldn't be a huge surprise to see 15-20% the rest of the way. Ozuna how has 19 home runs through June 20, and if he can stay healthy and avoid a second consecutive second-half swoon, finishing .310-35-120 is actually realistic.
