Regan's Rumblings: Regan's All-Stars

Every year when the All-Star rosters are announced, the outrage spews forth on ESPN and team fan boards across the country. For "my" Dodgers this year, the team has four players on the team — Clayton Kershaw, Corey Seager, Kenley Jansen, and uber-rookie Cody Bellinger. Left off were Alex Wood (9-0, 1.83 ERA) and Justin Turner (.382/.472/.557 in 59 games). Both are deserving, but guess what? There are a lot of good pitchers and third basemen in the NL and yes, every team must still have a representative, hence the selections of Pat Neshek and Brad Hand over Wood for example. I'll let others be outraged. Anyway, this week I'm presenting my 2017 Fantasy All-Star team(s). The first squad is straight-up the best fantasy players at each position so far this year. Second is my All-Star Value team, consisting of guys who may not be the best at their position but have provided a massive return for owners who either lucked into them or had the foresight to roster them at the beginning of the year…

All-Star Team

C – Buster Posey, SF

At .339/.416/.521 with 10 home runs, Posey hasn't showed the power of a Salvador Perez (16 homers), but it's hard to argue with that batting average. As a bonus, Posey sees the occasional first base duty when he needs a day off from catching. The batting average probably won't continue, but given his 10.5% K%, putting the ball in play hasn't been an issue.

1B – Paul Goldschmidt, ARI

Goldschmidt looks to be in line for the NL MVP at this point, as well as a fantasy MVP trophy, as he leads the senior circuit with a 3.9 WAR off a .316/.437/.588 slash line that includes 19 homers, 66 RBI, 71 runs, and even 13 steals. No one in baseball has more RBI, and only one guy (Aaron Judge) has more runs (72). Joey Votto (11% K%!) is the runner-up here, but this was the easiest selection on the board. Goldschmidt may have the most team-friendly contract in the game, as he's under club control through 2019 at $8.85 million this year, $11 million in 2017, and an easy call on his $14.5 million club option for 2019. He'd be in the discussion for this slot even if he didn't have an incredible 13 steals — as a first baseman.

2B – Jose Altuve, HOU

Altuve cemented his place as a top-five fantasy pick last year with his .338 BA, 24 HR, and 30 steals. This year, it's been more of the same with a .326/.398/.519 season that has included 11 home runs and 16 steals. Now that he's not leading off, 2014's 56 steals looks like his career high in that category, but the increased power and elite BA are more than making up for the drop-off in speed.

SS – Corey Seager, LAD

Fresh off a third-place MVP finish as a rookie in 2016, Seager has been even better this season, batting .305/.404/.520 with 13 home runs through 76 games. He's seen his BB% spike from 7.9% to 13.8% year over year and the lefty-hitter is hitting southpaws to the tune of a 1.030 OPS. Perhaps he'll move away from shortstop eventually, but no matter what position he finishes his career at, this looks to be a Hall-of-Fame talent.

3B – Justin Turner, LAD

Due to injuries and the fact that he's not a Nolan Arenado-type slugger, Turner has just seven home runs, but in a year in which power can be found in unexpected areas, that doesn't take away as much of Turner's value. Turner is batting 382/.472/.557 in 251 PA's, and that sort of batting average is what really elevates his value over guys like Arenado, Kris Bryant, and Manny Machado. He's not the third baseman you'd pick if you were starting a franchise, but for THIS year, that batting average sets him apart. It's really amazing to see how he's progressed as a hitter since the Mets non-tendered him after the 2013 season.

OF – Aaron Judge, NYY

Baseball's leader in home runs with 27, it's not the power that's elevated Judge from prospect to unanimous MVP candidate. It's the fact that he's hitting .330 — with a .449 OBP while posting off-the-charts numbers in new-age metrics like exit velocity. The fact that Judge can put up these type of numbers with a 28.9% K% is a testament to how hard he hits the ball. It's easy to postulate that his .423 BABIP will regress and bring his batting average down, but even if that happens, Judge is still a guy who could finish with a .310-50-120 type of line. To top things off, he's even swiped six bags.

OF – Mookie Betts, BOS

Betts got off to a bit of a slow start this year, but on the heels of a two-home run, eight-RBI game, he's now batting .285/.367/.509 with 15 home runs and 15 steals, possibly making him a 30/30 candidate. He's easily a top-five fantasy pick if a redraft happened today.

OF – Bryce Harper, WAS

Harper is well on his way to his second MVP season in the last three years. He's crushing lefties and righties while hitting equally well at home and on the road, and a healthy Harper is one of two guys I'd start a franchise with. Hint: the other plays on the left coast.

SP – Chris Sale, BOS

Sale leads the AL in WHIP (0.90), the majors in strikeouts (166), is second in the AL with a 2.61 ERA, and his 11 wins put him on pace for 20. The Red Sox paid a steep price to obtain Sale through the 2019 season, but so far so good. At this point it would be an upset if he wasn't named the AL Cy Young winner.

SP – Max Scherzer, WAS

Remember when the Diamondbacks, concerned about Scherzer's violent delivery, traded him to the Tigers in a three-way deal that netted them Ian Kennedy and Edwin Jackson? Pepperidge Farms remembers. Scherzer has gone on to win Cy Young awards in 2013 and 2016 and could be headed for No. 3 this year, though guys like Clayton Kershaw may have something to say about that in the second half. Scherzer leads all of baseball with a 1.93 ERA while ranking second in K's with 163 (three fewer than Sale). Anything can happen with a pitcher's shoulder or elbow, but Scherzer looks to be a lock for his ninth consecutive season with 30 or more starts, so any delivery/durability issues are in the rearview mirror at this point.

RP – Craig Kimbrel, BOS

Maybe Kenley Jansen has been the better real-life reliever given his 0.79 ERA, 14.0 K/9 and 0.26 BB/9, but Kimbrel has 23 saves to Jansen's 18, so he gets the slight edge here. Of course, with a 1.23 ERA, 16.2 K/9, and 1.2 BB/9, Kimbrel has been pretty good in his own right. Kimbrel has allowed just two home runs all year, and while a 65:5 K:BB may not be quite as good as Jansen's otherworldly 53:1, that's still 12 more strikeouts. I actually thought Kimbrel was declining a bit last year when he saw his ERA rise for the fourth consecutive campaign to 3.40, but he's taken his game to a different level in 2017. With 279 career saves at the age of 29, Kimbrel has the Hall of Fame in his sights.

All-Star Value Team

C – Alex Avila, DET

For a guy who appeared to be headed for backup catcher status, Avila's 2.4 WAR (second only to Buster Posey) is a revelation and a testament to the work he's put in to improve. Avila is batting a surprising .310/.431/.571, a mark that compares quite favorably to his 2011 career year in which he hit .295/.389/.506 in 551 PA's before seeing his number crater ever since. Avila was Rotowire's 52nd-ranked catcher in our draft package. Oops.

1B – Justin Smoak, TOR

Smoak, Justin Bour, Logan Morrison, Cody Bellinger, and others: suddenly, first base is a position in which you wish you HADN'T drafted the likes of Miguel Cabrera in the first round. Smoak is a former top prospect who is just killing it this year to the tune of .302/.368/.593 with 22 homers and 52 RBI. He's recently moved to the three-hole in the lineup, which should help that RBI count start to trend up. Amazingly, Smoak has never hit above .238 in a full season, but with an 18.2 K% (a mark that was 32.8% last year), he looks to be seeing the ball better and he's one of those "hey I changed my swing path" guys. Sure he could fall off in the second half, but I could still see him finishing with a .290 BA, 33 HR, and 90 RBI. Not bad.

2B – Chris Taylor, LAD

Taylor qualifies at second base and outfield in all leagues, and third base in some. He's also looking like an every day player, even with the rest of the team healthy. The potential return of Adrian Gonzalez could eat into Taylor's playing time in theory, but this is a guy batting .279/.368/.482 with 10 homers and 10 steals in 222 at-bats. He went through a 3-for-30 slump recently, but as the owner of .894, .820, and .870 OPS totals in Triple-A the past three years, Taylor has hit at the high levels of the minors, so perhaps this isn't a fluke now that he has regular playing time.

SS – Zack Cozart, CIN

Perhaps Corey Seager should be starting over him, but Cozart isn't some chump who was named an All-Star starter because some drunk fans stuffed the ballot box. Cozart is batting .320/.402/.553 with nine home runs. His BB% has spiked from last year's 7.3% to 12.1% in 2017 and he's always posted a sub-19% K%, so the contact rate is good. Cozart is making himself huge free agent money with this performance (he's a free agent after 2017) and while a .366 BABIP indicates perhaps some of this is luck-driven, Cozart could still hit .280 the rest of the way and finish with 15-18 home runs, so the fantasy value has been pretty strong for this one.

3B – Jose Ramirez, CLE

Ramirez eventually found regular playing time in 2016 and took advantage, hitting .312/.363/.462 with 11 homers and 22 steals in 618 plate appearances. The 24-year-old has built off of that this year to hit .325/.379/.584 with 15 homers and nine steals. The underrated Ramirez was even voted in as the All-Star starter at third base, so I guess the secret is out that this is a pretty good player. The stolen bases aren't exactly a surprise given he swiped as many as 38 in a minor league season (2013), but the power that the 5'9" Ramirez has shown as been a bit surprising. Maybe the power drops off a bit, but don't underrate this guy.

OF – Corey Dickerson, TB

Dickerson is Exhibit A against any theory that a guy who has success in Coors Field cannot leave and have similar success elsewhere. Entering Tuesday's action, Dickerson was batting an elite .321/.363/.562, a line remarkably similar to the .312/.364/.567 he put up as a Rockie in 2014. Dickerson appears to have changed his approach versus southpaws, a group he's batting .333/.368/.545 this year versus .241/.274/.315 last year. He's cut down on the strikeouts, and if the improvement versus southpaws is real, Dickerson looks to be a legitimate fantasy stud.

OF – Aaron Hicks, NYY

Hopefully the oblique injury heals quickly, as Hicks' 242 plate appearances this year have been stellar - .290/.398/.515 with 10 homers and seven stolen bases. This from a guy who hit .217 last year and has two other seasons with an even lower batting average. Who knows why his 15.3% BB% as spiked significantly, but he's had similar marks in the minors, so this improvement could actually be real.

OF – Cody Bellinger, LAD

Bellinger has regressed a bit the last couple weeks, but I'm guessing no one saw this coming. Playing time concerns have come and gone, as even Adrian Gonzalez's return from the DL shouldn't impact Bellinger's at-bats. If you've seen the swing, you know the potential to finish with 40+ home runs is there, but what about the batting average? Bellinger has fanned in 29.9% of his plate appearances while walking in 10% of them, so the batting average upside looks to be limited to the .270 range.

SP – Jason Vargas, KC

Here is your AL leader in ERA (2.22) right near the All-Star break. No once saw Vargas being 12-3 with that sort of ERA at this point and no one really sees that continuing in the second half, but stranger things have happened. Given his 6.6 K/9, Vargas' 4.72 xFIP (a predictor of future ERA) would suggest regression is coming fast and coming hard, but the guy with the 85.8 mph average fastball has also put up a 1.98 ERA over his last six starts, so the regression will have to wait. He's easy to throw out there as a sell-high candidate, but what if he's really this good?

SP – Drew Pomeranz, BOS

There were a lot of other candidates for this slot, but if you told me in March that I could get eight first-half wins, a 9.9 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, and 3.64 ERA from Pomeranz either late in
my draft or even off the waiver wire, I'd have taken that in a heartbeat. Pomeranz has some weird reverse platoon splits (.343 BA vs. LH hitters), but he's missing bats and he's supported by what should be a very good offense. Lately he's been even better, allowing just four runs and one home run over his last four starts, so I'm pretty optimistic that a strong second half is in order.

RP – Greg Holland, COL

I threw $6 at Holland in our staff league late in the auction just because I needed a closer to fill out my roster and I had $6 or so left. Flash forward to July, and Holland is actually healthy, and his 27 saves are four more than anyone else (Kimbrel's 23) and he has a 1.44 ERA and 12.1 K/9. Coming off Tommy John surgery, it's not a surprise to see his control being an issue (4.0 BB/9), but in terms of value, it's hard to imagine doing better than Kimbrel. There were of course plenty of other guys to slot here, including Corey Knebel, Brandon Kintzler, and Brad Brach, but Holland is having an All-Star season in a year in which many analysts figured Adam Ottavino would be closing for the Rockies by now.