This article is part of our The Z Files series.
Earlier this week, the initial Pitching and Hitting Rankings were posted for the abbreviated first week of the season. Returning subscribers recall we went through some growing pains together last season as I tweaked the early iterations before landing on a comfortable format. Not everyone agreed with that sentiment, but that's part and parcel to organizing this sort of content.
I'll review the major points of the thought process for each in a moment, but for those new to the site or wanting a refresher, here's a series of Z Files detailing the evolution of the rankings:
Revamping the Weekly Hitting Rankings
PITCHING RANKINGS
My objective is to rank the matchup in terms of effect on standard rotisserie standings. It's understood there isn't a universal scoring system, but we've discovered over the years it's the best if we only present one.
There are several keys to understanding the rankings. Most importantly, they're based on my projections, which aren't always in sync with the site numbers. Further, I incorporate an in-season algorithm that considers season-to-date skills. Some skills adapt sooner than others, like strikeout and walk rates. Homers and hits allowed take longer to move initial expectations. As such, I promise there will be some hurlers off to a slow start ranked higher than you'd like. Returning readers no doubt recall my early-season insistence Joe Musgrove wasn't as bad as he was pitching. As it turns out, he wasn't, but he was moved
Earlier this week, the initial Pitching and Hitting Rankings were posted for the abbreviated first week of the season. Returning subscribers recall we went through some growing pains together last season as I tweaked the early iterations before landing on a comfortable format. Not everyone agreed with that sentiment, but that's part and parcel to organizing this sort of content.
I'll review the major points of the thought process for each in a moment, but for those new to the site or wanting a refresher, here's a series of Z Files detailing the evolution of the rankings:
Revamping the Weekly Hitting Rankings
PITCHING RANKINGS
My objective is to rank the matchup in terms of effect on standard rotisserie standings. It's understood there isn't a universal scoring system, but we've discovered over the years it's the best if we only present one.
There are several keys to understanding the rankings. Most importantly, they're based on my projections, which aren't always in sync with the site numbers. Further, I incorporate an in-season algorithm that considers season-to-date skills. Some skills adapt sooner than others, like strikeout and walk rates. Homers and hits allowed take longer to move initial expectations. As such, I promise there will be some hurlers off to a slow start ranked higher than you'd like. Returning readers no doubt recall my early-season insistence Joe Musgrove wasn't as bad as he was pitching. As it turns out, he wasn't, but he was moved to the bullpen before regression corrected his ratios. Musgrove populated many sleeper lists this spring as the Pirates moved him back to the rotation. My in-season method captured Zack Godley and Chase Anderson quickly, so for every miss like Musgrove, there's someone you can jump on to get an early-season edge.
The other primary difference between my rankings and others is the focus on how each matchup influences standings. After extensive research, the somewhat surprising result was on an individual basis, the benefits of more whiffs and wins outweigh the damage done to ratios from a poor outing. Please realize this is on a per-week basis with the assumption that you make some wise choices along with the occasional poor decision. Your staff can absorb between five and 10 blow-ups before the loss in ratio points exceeds the gain in wins and punchouts. The repercussion of this is that often, lesser pitchers with two starts land higher in the rankings than a better hurler with a rough matchup. It's integral to understand I'm not saying the inferior pitcher is better than the superior one, simply he's a better option to help your standings that week.
The research showing the influence of two-start weeks was done on average league standings. When making a decision, you need to consider where you sit in your league. There's a good chance you're situated at the top or bottom of a cluster, dictating taking a chance or playing it safe. With the addition of four off days to the schedule, there will be fewer two-start pitchers, rendering it even more important to choose wisely.
Like most everything, the following is contextual, but my philosophy is starting seven pitchers with two closers in mixed formats and six starters with three relievers in AL-only or NL-only. As such, in a 12-team league, the top 84 starters are usable in mixed leagues with 72 good to go in only formats. In a 15-team mixed league, the top 105 starters are acceptable. If I don't own, or can't pick up someone in this range, I'll use a high-strikeout reliever. This is subject to change based on needs, but it serves as a solid baseline.
Please understand the site's probable pitching grid is the official source for expected starts. I pull the matchups from there for the rankings, but there's inevitably changes, sometimes between the time I file and the piece is posted. To help alleviate any frustration, I'll post an update sometime Sunday evening.
As always, I'm happy to address any questions on the rankings in the comments.
HITTING RANKINGS
The hitting rankings are designed to offer as much info as possible to maximize the production from your fringe hitters. The overall team rank is provided for those looking for teams in favorable weekly setups, but there are often individual hitters in nice spots on lower-ranked teams.
The rank is presented as an index with 100 representing a neutral matchup. Anything over favors the hitter, with numbers below 100 suggesting you look elsewhere.
The ranking incorporates team context, but factors such as steals, strength of offense and wOBA allowed by pitcher are sketchy early in the season, as the in-season sample is small. Therefore, much of the ranking is based on team expectation.
In the spirit of "it's better to under-promise and over-deliver", it's my intention to add a section highlighting specific hitters with a favorable weekly outlook. Obviously, they'll be hitters not automatically active in most leagues. I'm not sure if I'll do it by team, or by position, but I think it makes for a useful addition. There's a good chance I'll have more time to add it for the Sunday update, after rotations are better settled.
Sorry for the rather short episode this week, but I aim to head off questions on the rankings, so you can spend more time setting lineups and less waiting for a response.
Good luck this season!
