FanDuel MLB: Saturday Value Plays

FanDuel MLB: Saturday Value Plays

This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.

Saturday's main slate features just five games, with only one pitcher checking in north of $8,000. Just in passing, it seems like stacking Braves and Rockies bats would be prudent, but their prices seem elevated. They make for solid, safe, cash game targets, while GPP players will need to roll the dice on some other contests with lower posted over/unders.

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Pitcher

Gerrit Cole, HOU vs. SDP ($9,100): There simply doesn't appear to be a reason to get cute. Cole offers ace upside and faces a Padres lineup at home that has a .304 wOBA against righties in the early going after posting a .299 wOBA a season ago, bad enough for the second-lowest total in the league. San Diego also fanned 25.3 percent of the time against righties in 2017, giving Cole a chance to build on the 11 strikeouts he had in his season debut.

GPP Fade: Marcus Stroman, TOR at TEX ($7,900): It stands to reason if we're buying in on the top-priced arm, we're fading the next-priced arm. Stroman's price didn't change after his first starts, where he yielded four earned runs over five frames. His scoring in that contest came by way of eight strikeouts, and while the Rangers bring a 22.3 strikeout percentage into Saturday, Stroman has also proved to be better at home than on the road, with a career ERA nearly a point higher (4.19 vs. 3.24) away from Rogers Center.

Cheap GPP Consideration: Chad Kuhl, PIT vs. CIN ($6,300): This is a tough, tough slate to feel great gambling on an arm. Kuhl had a modest 20.2 strikeout percentage at home last year, paired with a 4.46 ERA. There's next to no upside here, but this game comes with the lowest total on the slate, and Kuhl is backed by the Pirates red-hot offense. Cool, damp weather could work in Kuhl's favor, and if he can find moderate improvement on the four runs he allowed over 5.2 innings in his first start, there's a solid chance he picks up a win and 20-plus fantasy points, allowing GPPs to splurge a bit more freely on reliable bats.

Catcher/First Base

Justin Smoak, TOR at TEX ($4,200): By all means use Freddie Freeman ($5,100) if he fits into your budget, and Ian Desmond ($4,000) is hitless in his last eight, which could lead to lower ownership. But Smoak offers plenty of upside at a savings from the top option. He crushed left-handed pitching last year to the tune of a .412 wOBA, 160 wRC+ and .234 ISO, and is off to a great start in 2018, hitting .379 with 10 RBI.

Second Base

Josh Harrison, PIT vs. CIN ($3,300): Harrison comes in at a $1,400 savings over the top-priced Jose Altuve, while also being the fifth-priced option at the keystone before the price drops another $500 to Scooter Gennett. He's hit safely in five of seven, all of which have been multi-hit showings, and hitting atop the order gives Harrison a solid chance to provide a return. I'm generally trying to avoid this game, but Pittsburgh has scored the third-most runs to date, making it difficult to completely ignore.

Third Base

Josh Donaldson, TOR at TEX ($3,500): Donaldson tees off on lefties, posting a .427 wOBA and 171 wRC+ against them, numbers that rose to .490/214 on the road. This game has the second-highest total on the board, and adding in Donaldson's 2017 absurd .400 ISO against southpaws suggests the potential for a huge evening.

Shortstop

Dansby Swanson, ATL at COL ($3,000): The only knock on Swanson is his place in the batting order (eighth). Otherwise, he's priced sixth among 10 starters at short and comes in with four multi-hit games in his last five outings. Rockies' starter Chad Bettis has been tougher on lefties than righties over the past two seasons to boot, last season allowing a .363 wOBA to same-handed bats versus a .333 wOBA to lefties.

Outfield

Charlie Blackmon, COL vs. ATL ($5,300): As the highest priced bat, Blackmon may not be the definition of value. But he's hard to fade against veteran Anibal Sanchez here. Blackmon posted a .503 wOBA, 199 wRC+ and .406 ISO at home against righties last year. That's worth paying for at nearly any price.

Preston Tucker, ATL at COL ($3,500): I'm not opposed to deploying the entire Braves outfield here, as all check in between $3,500 and $3,800. Tucker has hit safely in every game this season, three times going for multiple knocks while two have cleared the fence. His .331 wOBA and 111 wRC+ against righties during his career suggest a stable floor.

Derek Fisher, HOU vs. SDP ($2,900): Fisher offers power potential for GPP contests against opposite-handed arm Bryan Mitchell, who has allowed a .392 wOBA to lefties on the road during his career. He's the cheapest of the four Astros' outfielders, giving an opportunistic buy-in should the 'Stros continue to sit Jake Marisnick against righties.

Utility

Matt Olson, OAK at LAA ($3,600): The appeal here is Olson's power against JC Ramirez. Ramirez allowed a .396 wOBA, 4.80 ERA and 5.37 xFIP to lefties at home last year. Olson counters with an obscene 48.9 fly ball percentage from a season ago, with an unsustainable 43.5 percent of those flies leaving the yard. Ramirez' 15.4 percent strikeout rate suggests Olson will get the ball in the air a few times Saturday night.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Chris Bennett plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: k30kittles, DraftKings: k30kittles.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Chris Bennett
Bennett covers baseball, college football and college basketball for RotoWire. Before turning to fantasy writing, he worked in scouting/player development for the Atlanta Braves and Montreal Expos. He's also a fan of the ACC.
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