This article is part of our MLB Barometer series.
I thought I was good at Tecmo Super Bowl.
Countless hours of my childhood, teenage years, and college afternoons were spent running wild with Bo and Barry, and destroying opposing quarterbacks with LT blowing by every right tackle on the game.
I had played out hundreds of seasons over the years, trying to break my own records by running kickoffs and punts out of bounds inside my own five-yard-line to max out yardage.
In fact, I'm sure there is an old notebook buried somewhere in my parents' basement commemorating a 3,500-yard season from Cardinals running back Johnny Johnson and a 40-TD season from Lions receiver Robert Clark.
Little did I know, many of the world's top Tecmo players were annually descending upon my hometown while I finished up my degree at the University of Wisconsin. More importantly, they were playing competitive games online together for years while I was mopping up against the computer and disinterested friends and roommates.
Last year, I signed up to play in the Tecmo Madison tournament -- the 13th-year of what has become the world's premier competition.
I arrived the day of the tournament to check in at the registration table, with the hope of making a deep run toward 8-bit glory.
Nearly a hundred old CRT TVs were set up one after another in a packed local bar. Each TV had an original NES or a Hyperkin RetroN with a cartridge ready to go. As veterans of the event were meeting up with old
I thought I was good at Tecmo Super Bowl.
Countless hours of my childhood, teenage years, and college afternoons were spent running wild with Bo and Barry, and destroying opposing quarterbacks with LT blowing by every right tackle on the game.
I had played out hundreds of seasons over the years, trying to break my own records by running kickoffs and punts out of bounds inside my own five-yard-line to max out yardage.
In fact, I'm sure there is an old notebook buried somewhere in my parents' basement commemorating a 3,500-yard season from Cardinals running back Johnny Johnson and a 40-TD season from Lions receiver Robert Clark.
Little did I know, many of the world's top Tecmo players were annually descending upon my hometown while I finished up my degree at the University of Wisconsin. More importantly, they were playing competitive games online together for years while I was mopping up against the computer and disinterested friends and roommates.
Last year, I signed up to play in the Tecmo Madison tournament -- the 13th-year of what has become the world's premier competition.
I arrived the day of the tournament to check in at the registration table, with the hope of making a deep run toward 8-bit glory.
Nearly a hundred old CRT TVs were set up one after another in a packed local bar. Each TV had an original NES or a Hyperkin RetroN with a cartridge ready to go. As veterans of the event were meeting up with old friends, I took in the impressive setup of old equipment -- which included a 90s retro living room on a stage -- and watched some of the practice games taking place throughout the room while admiring the assortment of old NFL jerseys that slowly filled the room (Bob Nelson!).
Within minutes, I knew I was going to be facing an uphill battle just to get out of the group-play phase of the tournament (I think there were approximately 64 four-player groups, and it was double elimination with one player from each group advancing to the bracketed knockout phase).
As I looked in on practice games, quarterbacks were constantly moving, often taking off for short gains as routes were extremely well defended by the experienced players scattered throughout the room.
Most teams were alternating between two defenders, perfectly complementing the movement of their CPU teammates based on the defensive play selection. (For those unfamiliar with the game, the defensive player you choose before the snap is the player you control for the entire duration of that play. You can't switch defenders the way you do in most of the football games that followed Tecmo over the years.)
Trying to make up for the thousands of games I had not played against highly competitive players over the previous 25 years, I sat down to start playing a few practice games.
I think I split those warm-ups at 2-2, at least gaining some confidence as things officially got underway, even grinding out a low-scoring victory in a dreaded Colts-Pats matchup thanks to a Mike Prior interception.
I remember losing my first game to a guy named Tim, who had played in tournaments before. It was reasonably competitive, but never really in doubt, as I simply couldn't sustain drives and eventually fell behind enough where I couldn't make up ground in the fourth quarter against the fast-running clock. After coming away with a win in Game 2 (Chargers over Lions) thanks to Marion Butts and Anthony Miller, I thought I was ready for my third game against another experienced tourney player.
Before each game, a coin flip determines which of the two players gets to choose the two teams that will be used in that matchup. Whoever chooses the two teams ends up playing with the team that the other player does not want. I won my first toss of the day, and spit out "Cowboys-Vikings" without taking more than three seconds to think about it.
My opponent took the Vikings without hesitation, and I knew I had screwed up.
One critically important aspect of playing in Tecmo tournaments is being familiar with winnable matchups. Talent-wise, there is enough of gap between the Vikings and Cowboys where I was putting myself in a terrible spot from the opening kickoff.
Cowboys-Cardinals, Cowboys-Browns, or Cowboys-Jets would have all been acceptable.
Overmatched in pixels and by the quality of the player sitting next to me, I was promptly eliminated.
It was one of many lessons I learned that day.
I wanted to give the tournament another shot in 2018, as it was hosted a few blocks from the RotoWire office this past weekend.
Although I did not spend 15-20 hours per week playing online games over the past year, I entered with reasonable expectations.
Just try to get through the group stage.
I had spent time becoming more familiar with the proper matchups to call, so I felt confident sitting down for group play on Saturday morning.
I won the first pre-game coin flip and proceeded to call Chiefs-Bears.
After a long opening drive against a very good player, I managed to get a third-down stop inside my own five-yard line to force a field-goal attempt. I've probably blocked a hundred kicks with Derrick Thomas over the years in Tecmo.
MAKE IT 101!
As the pixelated ball randomly bounced around near the 15-yard-line, it was recovered by one of the Bears.
Thomas, who had been thrown across the screen after the block, sat up, shook off the cobwebs, and under my control, started to make his way toward a drive-ending tackle only to be bounced across the screen again by a random offensive lineman.
The fumble recovery was run in for a TD.
In the thousands of games I've played, I can't recall that ever happening to me. Tons of blocked kicks. Plenty of returns for a TD by the teams that blocked the kick, but zero recovered by the kicking team and run in for a score.
As was the case in my first game the year prior, I struggled to move the ball against a very strong defensive player, and eventually had to take chances in the second half, which did not pay off. I took a 20-0 loss.
For Game 2, I won the pre-game flip again and decided to go back to the well with the matchup I had won with in group play in 2017: Chargers-Lions.
In hindsight, I should have known things were going to be tough when the pre-game adjustments to the lineup and playbook included a designed run for Mel Gray that I had never seen anybody use before.
I thought I would be able to control the passing game with Gil Byrd, call a lot of runs to Barry to minimize the impact of those plays, and give myself a shot at a better placement in the knockout portion of the tournament.
Instead, the designed left-side toss play to Gray tore up the right-side of my defense, as the primary blockers were stronger than the CPU defenders trying to get off the blocks.
My opponent knew exactly where the weaknesses were in the San Diego defense, and by making those adjustments, also set up better plays for Barry in the passing game where he could run routes further away from Gill Byrd.
In addition to being more tactically savvy than I was, the Tecmo Gods showed up to help him connect on a Hail Mary before halftime to put me down two touchdowns at the break, but I'm not sure it mattered.
From there, I became too pass-happy and completely unraveled to the tune of a blowout where I kicked a late field goal to avoid getting blanked in back-to-back games.
Brutal.
One interesting improvement to the format this year was that each three-player group sent a player to one of three brackets (Gold, Silver, Bronze), which extended the day for all parties involved.
I fumbled twice to ensure a swift exit from my Bronze qualifier game as well.
In summary, I was smothered by great defenses in two of my three games, and I dropped a third to a similarly-skilled player because I couldn't stop Bucs wide receiver Mark Carrier with the Denver defense. (I also lost the two practice games I played Saturday morning.)
I thought I was good at Tecmo Super Bowl.
Want to join in on the fun for 2019?
Starting playing online. Directions/league info is available at TecmoBowl.org
Deep dive on the player skills at TecmoGeek.com
Review the matchups here
The beatdown I took Saturday left me plenty of time to soak up weekend matchups and to prepare for another busy weekend of pickups.
Here's a look at some of the biggest movers from the past week.
Risers
Matt Chapman, 3B, OAK -- Chapman's fast start to the season has been a pleasant surprise for those who decided to scoop him up in the late rounds as a corner-infield filler, or in deeper mixers as a high-PT volume option to cover at third base outside the Top 200 overall. In each of the last two seasons, Chapman has struck out at least 29 percent of the time at all levels, but he's walked nearly 10 percent of the time at every stop since High-A in 2015*. (*As a rookie last season, Chapman had a 9.8 percent BB% with Oakland). In many ways, his profile as a hitter resembles that of teammate Matt Olson, whose 24 homers in 59 games as a rookie overshadowed Chapman's 14 in 84 with the A's a year ago. Keep an eye on his strikeout rate in the coming weeks. It's far too early to expect his improvement to this point (20.0% K%) to be sticky, but he's done a better job of laying off pitches outside the strike zone while taking more swings at pitches in the zone -- and making contact on those swings at a greater clip. In a 12-team mixer (The "Beat DVR" League) where I waited on third basemen, I drafted Chapman and Todd Frazier with back-to-back picks. I dropped Frazier in that league this weekend.
Tim Anderson, SS, CHW -- The White Sox rush prospects to the big leagues. In terms of player development, if the Rays and Pirates are slow cookers, the White Sox are a deep fryer. Anderson walked 26 times in 997 trips to the plate from his debut in 2016 through the end of last season. He's drawn four walks through nine games (38 plate appearances) to begin 2018, which is particularly helpful when you consider that he's 30-for-33 as a basestealer at the big-league level thanks in part to five early-season swipes. The lack of walks were not the only problem over the last two seasons, however, as Anderson has a career 27 percent strikeout rate. The overwhelming flaws are/were easy to see in his profile, but Anderson has always had interesting tools, with decent pop accompanying that speed. Like Chapman, there are a few things to watch in the weeks ahead -- the walk rate, and the flyball rate. Anderson has essentially flipped his flyball and groundball rates to begin the season. If he's hitting the ball in the air more often, he's capable of surging into the 25-homer range.
Miguel Andujar, 3B, NYY -- Brandon Drury was placed on the DL with migraines and blurred vision, and was scheduled to have tests to determine the root cause early this week. While Andujar was on the 25-man roster and struggling to find playing time over the past week, he started at third base Saturday and Sunday with Drury unavailable. There is little doubt that Andujar can hit, and his hold on regular playing time may be limited depending on Drury's availability in the coming weeks, especially since Tyler Austin was playing ahead of Andujar at first base. After entering last weekend as a potential drop in re-draft mixers with 15 or fewer teams, Andujar became a viable corner-infield/utility option in a matter of days.
Christian Villanueva, 3B, SD -- Three-homer games from unheralded corner guys are all the rage now. Villanueva started five consecutive contests after putting himself on the fantasy radar last week. Already 26 years old, Villanueva was blocked at third base in the Cubs' organization as soon as Kris Bryant was selected with the second overall pick of the 2013 draft. At the time, Villanueva was a 22-year-old holding his own at Double-A Tennessee. The Cubs non-tendered him in December of 2016, following a season lost to a broken leg suffered in spring training. Villanueva spent most of last season at Triple-A El Paso, tearing up the Pacific Coast League in his second full campaign at that level. Unlike previous riser Matt Davidson on the south side of Chicago, Villanueva is a good defender, which may afford him some leash if he slumps at the plate for a stretch. Moreover, the Padres can justify playing him ahead of Chase Headley, since the money owed to Headley in the final year of his contract is a sunk cost. An 0:20 BB:K in 59 plate appearances with San Diego from last September and the early weeks of 2018 is a concern, but he posted a sub-20 percent strikeout rate at all but one of his final minor-league stops.
Vince Velasquez, SP, PHI -- Admittedly, I wasn't on Velasquez as anything more than a streamer with an upcoming matchup against the Rays on Friday until a meaty FAAB bid my NFBC Main Event League appeared on the report Sunday night. After getting tagged for seven runs -- four earned -- and failing to complete three innings in his first start of the season against the Braves, Velasquez bounced back against the Marlins with six strikeouts in six innings while allowing one run on four hits his second time out. The fear is that we might always be clinging to a few very good starts in early 2016 that are simply not his true performance baseline, but there is one interesting twist in Velasquez's approach the caught my eye in those first two outings. In each of his three (partial) MLB seasons, Velasquez's changeup graded out as his worst pitch. He appears to have scrapped it in 2018, instead increasing the use of his slider and curveball behind his four-seamer. Sometimes, getting rid of an ineffective pitch is just as valuable as adding a new one.
Robert Gsellman, RP, NYM -- Gsellman was supposed to be a cheap starting pitcher capable of breaking out in 2017. He didn't, although you could make an argument that he's still capable of breaking out in 2018. For now, he's working in a multi-inning relief role, and the increasing difficulty of streaming starting pitchers has left many owners considering non-closer relievers as staff fillers. Gsellman has fanned nine of the first 24 batters he's faced in 2018 (37.5% K%), while picking up 1.5 mph on his average fastball velocity with the shift to the bullpen. He's also upped the use of his slider, which was a key pitch for him when he surprised at the big-league level when he arrived in 2016. Even if he's kept in a relief role all season, Gsellman is well on his way to mixed-league relevance.
Fallers
Giancarlo Stanton, OF, NYY -- Stanton has struck out 20 times in 48 plate appearances through 10 games in pinstripes. While Stanton never struck out more than three times in a game last season, he's already whiffed five times in a game twice as a Yankee, making many forget that he homered twice on Opening Day. A closer look at the batted ball profile reveals that Stanton has been swinging at pitches outside the strike zone at a rate (31.5%) in line with his career mark (31.1%). He's making less contact inside and outside the strike zone, with the drop-off inside the zone being much more steep. Yankees manager Aaron Boone suggested that the struggle for Stanton is a timing issue with his swing, and it's certainly a plausible explanation at this point. His fantasy value probably hasn't dropped at all since draft day despite the slow start, so there is nothing actionable about his placement as a 'faller' this week since it's purely an observation.
Chase Anderson, SP, MIL -- There were plenty of skeptics in the industry about Anderson's success from 2017. A closer look reveals skills growth that began in the second half of 2016 (his 3.02 ERA was backed by reduced walk and home-run rates). Last season's step forward was backed by an increased average fastball velocity (93.1 mph), which is looking like an outlier compared to the rest of his career since that mark has dropped back to 91.7 mph through three starts this season. Unless those extra ticks return in the next few starts, Anderson looks like he'll struggle to miss bats and keep the ball in the yard at rates in line with last season. The limited number of optimists about him will likely make it difficult to deal him, but Anderson may be better suited for streaming than for regular duty in most mixed formats.
Chris Davis, 1B, BAL -- During draft season, the magnitude of the problem the Orioles have with Davis on their books became very clear to me:
"Davis has hit .221 or less in three of the last four seasons, and his 37.2 percent strikeout rate last season was the highest he's ever posted at any level as a pro. Imagine having a 32-year-old version of Joey Gallo on your roster. Now imagine having him signed through 2022 at an average annual cost of $23 million. At least some of the cash is deferred. The Mets are paying Bobby Bonilla until 2035. The Orioles will be paying Chris Davis until 2037."
With a 10-game line of .088/.225/.176, Davis looks completely lost at the plate. He attempted to drop a bunt in Monday's game (he sent it right back to the pitcher), and later the frustration bubbled over:
Chris Davis went full Bo Jackson: https://t.co/8NzvDRNL1Mpic.twitter.com/QKnLeYuiY1
— Deadspin (@Deadspin) April 10, 2018
Davis may be droppable in mid-sized mixed leagues in the very near future if he doesn't show signs of getting back on track.
Stephen Piscotty, OF, OAK -- Health was a major factor in Piscotty's disappointing 2017 season, but the start of his 2018 has been truly awful. Through 10 games, Piscotty has the lowest hard-hit rate of his career (27.6%, career 33.4%) with a ridiculous 72.4 percent groundball rate. He's making less contact across the board, whiffing more frequently on pitches inside and outside of the strike zone (54.2% O-Contact%, 76.6% Z-Contact%), and carrying the highest swinging-strike rate of his career (15.0%). In deeper leagues where you're not ready to cut bait, Piscotty should have been reserved this week since the A's only had five games. Perhaps a trio of lefties in those matchups will help him settle in at the plate, but it's a scary start for a player scrambling to prove that 2016 (22 homers, .800 OPS) wasn't a fluke.
Ryan McMahon, 1B, COL -- McMahon has started one of the Rockies' first 11 games this season, and he hit eighth that day (April 3). Ian Desmond has only moved to left field when the Rockies have faced a left-handed starter, and in those matchups, Pat Valaika is added to the mix to give the Colorado lineup another option from the right side. If he hasn't been dropped in redraft mixers yet, that moment is rapidly approaching.
