Oak's Corner: Patience With Carlos

The Week That Was

Mitch Haniger is killing it to start the season, hitting .305 with eight homers and 24 RBI through only 94 plate appearances. Haniger's 2017 looks pretty good at a quick glance with a .282 average and 16 homers in 96 games, but he was a beast to start the season, hitting .342 with four homers and 16 RBI in 21 games before he got injured. He came back in June and struggled through much of the summer, but then got hot again late, hitting .353 with seven homers in 28 games. Now, injuries are clearly the issue with Haniger, and we have yet to see him stay healthy for a long stretch in the majors, but damn is he really, really good when he is healthy.

While the Mariners do have trouble pitching the ball, Haniger has the benefit of a strong lineup as he hits right behind Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz and Kyle Seager. The Mariners top six, when healthy, is great and I anticipate them getting going on offense as the year goes on. I'm not a huge fan of Mike Zunino, but he does possess massive power and should drive in Haniger plenty of times. Haniger's hard hit rate is an excellent 41.3 percent, and if he can keep up the fly ball boost he has displayed to start at 46.6 percent, the homers should keep coming. Just stay healthy Mitch!

On the flip side of the start that Haniger has experienced, we find Carlos Santana who has encountered very little success with his new squad in Philadelphia. Through 23 games, Santana finds himself at only .171 with two homers and 11 RBI. Santana has been an iron man in an age of many injuries playing over 150 games over the last six games, all while putting up consistent numbers in most of those seasons. He did have the back to back years when his BA swooned to .231, but Santana has hit .259 in the last two years while averaging 28.5 homers.

Despite the slow start, I am still optimistic about Santana moving forward. While his strikeouts are up a little bit from last season, they are still more than fine at 16.9 percent, and his walks are up to 15.7 percent. The .182 BABIP is killing his batting average, but his hard hit rate is actually sitting at an excellent 41.2 percent. He also has a career high fly ball rate of 50.7 percent, which may continue to hurt his BABIP. However, one has to think with the fly balls and hard hit rate that a slew of homers is coming soon. He's hitting in the top half of the Phillies lineup, and once the hits start dropping in, and they are going to, the counting cats are coming with it. I think you actually can buy Santana low right now, and he's a prime trade target for me at the moment.

Lance McCullers currently sports a 4.67 ERA through five starts, but almost all of that damage comes from one start where he was shelled for eight earned runs in 3.2 innings, allowing seven hits and six walks. The six walks in that outing spiked his walk rate significantly, as it now sits at 4.00 BB/9, but he only has six walks combined in his other four starts. The strikeout rate is a nice 12.33 strikeouts per nine, good for eighth best among all qualified starters. McCullers' hit rate is a bit elevated at 33.3 percent, but he, incredibly, has the highest BABIP in the Majors at .381.

BABIP isn't the only place that McCullers leads the league so far, as he also has the highest ground ball percentage in baseball at 63.6 percent. Of course, the issue with McCullers is injury, and I realize it's likely way too early to get a good price on McCullers based on only one really poor start, but I'd love to have part of the top-10 K rate and the best ground ball rate combo. He's about to reel off an impressive set of starts with the only concern being how deep he can work into games.

Speaking of guys about to go on a crazy run, J.D. Martinez has a 63 percent hard hit rate. 63 percent! I'm not sure I have seen a number that high a month into the season. There's nothing else to really say about Martinez, but I would love to bet on him right now for most RBI in the league. Of course, he hit a three-run homer off the Blue Jays as I was writing this article. It would be really tough to acquire him right now, but play him in DFS as much as you can.

FAAB Feelings

I won't bother to cover the Ronald Acuna call-up here, as I assume he was drafted in every league that isn't AL-only. If by some chance you're in a shallow league where he's available in FAAB this weekend, empty out every dollar you have to bring him aboard, especially if your league allows $0 bids.
• Marco Gonzales: A former 2013 first round pick in, Seattle's Gonzales is available in a lot of leagues, as he's currently owned in 59 percent of NFBC 15-team leagues and only 10 percent of NFBC 12-team leagues. The 26-year-old lefty sports an average looking 4.37 ERA through his first five starts, but a deeper dive into his 2018 profile is much more interesting. In his 22.2 innings so far in 2018, Gonzales has a nice 10.72 K/9 strikeout rate while only walking 1.59 batters per nine. The strikeout rate is definitely something to watch, as he only posted a 7.20 K/9 rate in 40 MLB innings last year and a 7.51 K/9 rate in his 68.1 Triple-A innings. The swinging strike rate hasn't jumped up much either, as it still sits under 10 percent so far this season, so we'll need to watch the strikeout rate to see if he keeps any of the gains.

  The 4.22 ERA has been hiding the good work Gonzales has produced this year, caused by a league-leading .406 WHIP to go with a low 62.9 percent strand rate. His 39.4 percent hard hit rate has definitely not helped the cause, but I do like his 47 percent ground ball rate. His velocity on his fastball is down, but his also throwing it less as he has added a new cutter this season. Gonzales was not good in his 40 inning sample in 2017 with a 6.08 ERA and that certainly tempers my excitement over his current profile, but I think he is worth making a bid on this weekend in case he has figured something out, especially considering the scoreless nature of both of his last two starts.

• Jorge Soler:Soler is only owned in 33 percent of NFBC 12-team leagues. He was dropped early after a slow start left him hitting .207 after the first two weeks of the season with only one extra base hit. Soler is still striking out a bit too much at 26 percent, but he has nicely upped his walk rate in the young season to 17.8 percent. The most positive thing from Soler's first four weeks is just how hard he is hitting the ball. His 52.5 percent hard hit rate currently puts him third in baseball, but the home run potential has been hurt by a high 50 percent ground ball rate.

  Soler plays his home games in Kansas City, a tough home run park, but the Royals' lack of exciting offensive options does give him the chance to play every day. Soler was once a highly regarded prospect in the Cubs organization (he was a top 50 overall prospect by Baseball America three years in a row) but was dealt to the Royals for Wade Davis prior to the 2017 after hitting .238 in 86 MLB games in 2016. Soler finally flashed his power upside in AAA in 2017, mashing 24 homers in 74 games before getting called up to the Royals where he fell flat on his face with a .144 average in 110 plate appearances.

  Somehow, Soler still is only 26 and presents a nice add as a guy who finally found his power strike in Triple-A last year. With his current hard hit rate, more pop will come if he can just hit a few more fly balls. For a stab in free agency, I think he makes a lot of sense and presents zero downside at his current price and can always be dropped if you don't see any results after a few weeks. Anyone who can post a hard hit rate over 50 percent while striking out less than 30 percent of the time is someone on whom I want to take a chance. (Of course, he homered Thursday a couple of hours as I wrote him up, but hopefully one homer won't raise his price too much.)
  

Fernando Rodney gave up a three-run walk-off homer to Gary Sanchez on Thursday afternoon without recording an out, although to be fair, there was an error on Miguel Sano to start the inning followed by an infield single by Giancarlo Stanton. But however it happened, Rodney has now blown three consecutive save opportunities after locking down his first two saves of the season. Rodney has a 6.75 ERA, which is ugly but not nearly as ugly as his 2.10 WHIP. So far, he has managed to limit his walks, his usual issue, with only two in 6.2 innings. Manager Paul Molitor said after Thursday's game that Rodney was throwing the ball well and called him, a "little bit snake bit," so it appears for right now the job is still Rodney's, but the Twins came into this season wanting to compete, and at some point, they'll have to swap out Rodney if he doesn't not get hot. Any leash he had to begin 2018 has to be very short at the moment.

If they decide to go away from Rodney, I think it would be for Addison Reed, which would sting, as I recently dropped Reed in two leagues where I needed the roster spots too badly. In his first season with the Twins, Reed has a 2.77 ERA in 13 innings with a 12:3 K:BB ratio. After some up and down ratio years where he still saved a lot of games, Reed settled nicely in the last two seasons, posting a 1.97 ERA with the Mets in 2016 and a 2.84 ERA in 76 innings with the Mets and Red Sox in 2017. He found a way to limit his walks to under 2.00 BB/9 in both of those seasons for the first time in any full season of his career. Reed is only 29 and with a two-year, $16.75 million deal signed in the offseason. It makes sense for the Twins to turn over the reins to him in the ninth if they do decide to make a change.

If the Twins make a move, but prefer to leave Reed in his setup role, they could conceivably go to Ryan Pressly who has been fantastic so far this year. He has yet to allow a run in 13 innings and has struck out 18 guys against only three walks. Pressly had issues with homers in 2017 with 1.47 homers per nine, and he only struck out 8.95 batters per nine, a number way more in line with his historical line than the bump up so far this season. Pressly has been great this year, but if I'm making a move from Rodney (I know, the Twins likely won't ask me), it's to Reed with the idea to let him run with the job. Rodney will get the next opportunity for the Twins, but I'd think he needs to lock down at least the next two or three saves, as the seat is really warm right now.

Series of the Weekend

A's at Astros. I haven't had many chances to write about an interesting A's series, so I'm going to jump at the chance with this one. After a rough first couple of weeks, the A's have played great baseball of late, winning eight of the their last 10, including a series win last weekend against the Red Sox, who came in with a 16-2 record. The A's offense has been strong to start the year, currently ranked in the top five in baseball in runs scored, home runs, slugging percentage and OPS. Jed Lowrie has led the charge on offense, posting a .352 batting average with six homers and 24 RBI. The A's pitching hasn't held up its end of the bargain with a 4.26 team ERA, but Sean Manaea has been one of the best starting pitchers in MLB through the first four weeks with a 1.23 ERA in five starts, including 2018's first no hitter.

Manaea will take the hill Friday night as the A's will get a great test to see where they stand against the World Champs in Houston. The Astros have begun their title defense exceptionally well, starting the season 17-9 with by far the best ERA in baseball at a mere 2.43 with three of their starting pitchers sporting an ERA under 2.00. The great success of Gerrit Cole with his new team has been the story for the Astros, but Justin Verlander has been incredible as well with a 1.36 ERA and a crazy 0.73 WHIP through 39.2 innings. Their two starters who aren't under 2.00 ERA right now are the very highly regarded Dallas Keuchel and the previously discussed McCullers, which is a true testament to how nasty this rotation really is.

Of course, the Astros can also hit and find themselves fifth in MLB in runs scored, although they have played a couple more games than a few teams right behind them. But they are top-seven in OBP, slugging and OPS, so clearly their offense is a force to be reckoned with. Carlos Correa has started the season on fire, hitting .341 with four homers, checking in with a .974 OPS through 88 at-bats. Even though Jose Altuve just hit his first homer on Wednesday and his power hasn't yet arrived, he's still hitting .333. It must be nice to not yet be firing on all cylinders and still be hitting .333! This weekend will be a great test for the young A's to see where they stand against an elite team. On Friday, we get to see Manaea's first start since the no-no, as he faces off against Keuchel, and with Cole going Sunday, this should be a great series to watch all weekend.