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PITCHER
Kyle Hendricks, CHC vs MIA ($7,900): As always, there's nothing wrong with paying up for the top guy in cash tonight who happens to be Stephen Strasburg ($10,000) at the Padres. However, he's had three games in the 20s in fantasy points this season, a range that doesn't come close to paying off his hefty salary. Hendricks has a great matchup at home against the Marlins, who still have the lowest wOBA (.267) and ISO (.097) against right-handed pitching in the league, and those stats are worse when they've been on the road. Hendricks career wOBA allowed (.274) and strikeout rate (21.2 percent) have been better at home, and the Marlins only have two lefties to worry about in their lineup.
GPP Fade: Fernando Romero, MIN at STL ($6,400): Romero had a fantastic first start for the Twins, finishing the game with 38 fantasy points. A similar outing would make him a tremendous value tonight except for the matchup. While St. Louis is in the middle of the pack in wOBA against right-handed pitching at home, they have the eighth-lowest strikeout rate against that handedness (20.7 percent). Think about Mike Soroka's outing yesterday after he was lights out in his first start. There are usually bumps along the way during a rookie's first season in the bigs.
Cheap GPP Consideration: Tyson Ross, SD vs WAS ($7,700): The matchup here with the Nationals should keep most owners away, especially considering how hot Bryce Harper and Matt Adams have been. That being said, Ross has been pretty spectacular to start the season with a 27 percent strikeout rate and both his xFIP (3.22) and FIP (2.83) suggest his 3.23 ERA isn't a fluke. Even if he doesn't get the win the strikeouts should be there, and it doesn't hurt that the Nationals are flying across the country to begin their road trip.
CATCHER/FIRST BASE
John Hicks, DET at TEX ($2,600): Hicks is an interesting punt play in a hitter's park tonight. He's got a solid matchup against Matt Moore, who has a .405 wOBA against right-handed hitters this season. After a .328 wOBA last season, Hicks has improved to .340 this year and he should be in a good RBI spot, likely hitting cleanup.
SECOND BASE
Cesar Hernandez, PHI vs SF ($3,400): Hernandez had a .375 wOBA at home last season against right-handed pitching and for his career has always hit better when in Philadelphia. Jeff Samardzija has struggled this season after being injured early on, allowing a .508 wOBA to lefties in a limited sample. In fact, he has had difficulty with left-handed hitters over the last three seasons, giving up wOBAs of .323, .331 and .351 to that side of the plate.
THIRD BASE
Alex Bregman, HOU at OAK ($3,200): Bregman has been an on base machine thus far, reaching base in 17 of his last 18 games. He had an excellent .406 wOBA against left-handed pitching last season and gets a southpaw in Brett Anderson tonight. Anderson had allowed a .320 and .355 wOBA to righties over the last two seasons in which he had a significant number of matchups.
SHORTSTOP
Brandon Crawford, SF at PHI ($2,800): Not only does Crawford get an upgrade in parks tonight, he comes in swinging a hot bat. He's gone 10-for-18 over his last four games, raising his batting average from .204 to .250. Zach Eflin in his short career has allowed a .383 wOBA to left-handed hitters when in his home ballpark.
OUTFIELD
Albert Almora, CHC vs MIA ($2,800): Jarlin Garcia (4.54 xFIP) has been superficially excellent to this point with a 1.09 ERA over six starts. Going on the road to face the Cubs in Wrigley is always a tough task, especially as they have many hitters who excel against left-handed pitching. Almora is one of those players, sporting a .380 career wOBA against left-handed pitching, and he should find himself in his usual leadoff spot with a lefty on the mound.
Adam Duvall, CIN vs NYM ($3,000): Duvall has raked against southpaws since moving to Cincinnati and gets P.J. Conlon tonight making his first start of the season. Since 2016, Duvall has posted a wOBA of .361, .366 and .375 versus LHP. Conlon, at the Triple-A level for the first time in his career, had a 6.75 ERA over five starts, saying all that needs to be said.
UTILITY
Joey Gallo, TEX vs DET ($3,500): Gallo is one of those players that supports the notion that wOBA is a more telling stat than regular batting average. He sports a .223 batting average this season but has an overall .354 wOBA. Gallo is one of the few players legitimately capable of multiple home runs tonight, while Michael Fulmer is giving up a .444 wOBA to lefties on the road after a .323 mark last season.
