Mound Musings: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

Every season at about this time, I like to take a look at the first half and evaluate the biggest surprises. I'm going to try to avoid the impact of injuries while reviewing the performance of some pitchers who have disappointed me, at least from a standpoint of missed time/starts. Pitchers like Noah Syndergaard and Clayton Kershaw missing much of the first half obviously hurts and would be considered bad in many ways. You will notice I am convinced that injuries have played some part in several of the poor first-half performances. Injuries are always a factor, but in many ways the past couple of years, they have become an everyday annoyance for almost every fantasy owner.

That said, I'd like to feature a few pitchers who have impressed me with solid numbers at about the halfway point in the season. Then, we'll flip the coin and I'll throw out some pitchers who have been battered way too often in the early months of 2018. The bad is your average, run-of-the mill, disappointing performance, but the ugly highlights some of the true lowlights so far this year.

The Good: Some selected pitchers making a positive impact in the first half:

Miles Mikolas (Cardinals) – I invested heavily in Mikolas this spring, buying him in every league but one, and acquiring him via trade shortly after the season began in that league. I really liked what I saw in spring training. He still had the good arm I remembered from before he left for Japan, but he was a pitcher now – and a pitcher with excellent command of his whole repertoire. He's not a strikeout pitcher (although his strikeout rate will probably gradually increase), which limits his fantasy value a bit, but his command, solid tools and excellent sequencing make him very useful. As a pitch to contact guy, I just wish he pitched in front of a better defensive team. Paul DeJong returning will definitely help a great deal in that equation.

Gerrit Cole (Astros) – On my draft chart this spring, I had Cole as a big bounce-back candidate, moving to a great environment in Houston. He gave up too many home runs last season, but I saw that as a bit of an anomaly. Now I look at his "bounce-back" and … wow! He's 9-2 with a 2.70 ERA, a microscopic 0.97 WHIP, and 158 strikeouts in just over 116 innings. Maybe the Astros are feeding Justin Verlander and him the same trail mix. Cole still serves up a few too many long balls, but it's because he believes he owns every hitter that steps into the box. He challenges batters, he's constantly ahead in the count, and with his stuff, that's the magic formula. Today, he is a legitimate ace.

Ross Stripling (Dodgers) – Entering the 2018 season, I viewed Stripling as a nice swingman, capable of providing decent innings in long relief and filling in for an occasional spot start if needed. With Dodgers' rotation constantly thinned by injuries, those "spot" starts became more and more frequent. Stripling has taken it all in stride, and has seized upon the opportunity. His command is sharper than ever, leading to an increased strikeout rate, and quite a bit of soft contact, which has allowed him to go 6-2 with a 2.27 ERA and an equally solid 1.12 WHIP over the first half. He may be a little over his head, but I haven't seen anything to suggest impending doom.

The Bad: Some selected pitchers making a negative impact in the first half:

Yu Darvish (Cubs) – I don't think Darvish has been 100 percent for two years and, to be honest, I'm not sure where this will end up when the dust settles. When healthy, he's a very capable pitcher – I'm so bullish on him, I'd put him in my top 10. However, this season has seen very un-Darvish results (4.95 ERA and 1.43 WHIP). His velocity is okay, but his command has been far from what we have come to expect. On any given day, he has trouble throwing strikes with his huge menu of pitches, and when he throws strikes, he struggles to locate them. Adding Darvish is a roll of the dice. He's had issues with his shoulder, his triceps and his elbow, and they all are quite likely related as he tries to compensate for the underlying problems. He defines high risk, very high reward.

Marcus Stroman (Blue Jays) – Stroman is an extreme groundball pitcher who relies as much as any pitcher in the game on pinpoint command. Early in the season, he was nothing short of awful. After seven starts, he was 0-5 with a 7.71 ERA. His pitches were up in the zone and lacked the crisp movement he normally displayed. The Jays put him on the disabled list with a balky shoulder in early May. He just returned last week, and I had the opportunity to watch part of his first start back. The difference was night and day. He's not a big strikeout pitcher, and he can be vulnerable to some bad luck if some of those ground balls sneak through the infield, but the flip-side is an inordinately high number of double plays when the batter hits one to an infielder. I look for better days.

Luke Weaver (Cardinals) – After a very impressive debut in the second half of last season, a lot of people (including me) expected a bright future for Weaver. After his first three 2018 starts, everything seemed to be on track (2-0, 2.08 ERA, 0.98 WHIP), but then things started to unravel. He was battered in a start against the Cubs, followed by several lackluster outings. I watched a few times, and he appeared healthy, but a combination of a few bad pitches and some bad luck hurt him repeatedly. Predictably, the adjustments began, but each small tweak seemed to create more issues. In his last start – his worst of the season – he looked lost. A few baserunners, and his demeanor suggested a, "here we go again" take on things. I think he needs a "reset" to get things back in synch. He has the skill set, but it's hard to predict how long this funk will last.

The Ugly: Some selected pitchers taking negative impact to a whole new level:

Tyler Chatwood (Cubs) – I didn't expect a Cy Young out of Chatwood when he left Colorado for a new home with the Cubs, but I certainly expected a tick up in overall performance. He has, instead, regressed. It's all about command for him. He's never been a refined finesse pitcher, but having watched a few of his outings this season, he has completely (at least most of the time) lost touch with the strike zone. His 4.54 ERA could actually be worse given his hideous 1.75 WHIP, but he has been somewhat saved by hitters not digging in and taking an, "incoming!" approach to at bats. The Cubs have stuck with him, no doubt hoping to correct his mechanics, but I have my doubts.

Lucas Giolito (White Sox) – There was a day when Giolito resided at the top of my "Kids List" as the young arm I considered the top pitching prospect in the game. That seems like ages ago even though it has only been about three years. The Nationals drafted him in the first round (2012) knowing he would require Tommy John surgery. He returned in late 2013, and things looked good but different. Giolito's mechanics appeared to change – possibly to try and protect his elbow – and he lacked command, while his pitches often missed their presurgery crispness. I became suspicious when the Nats dealt him to the White Sox, but initial returns weren't bad. This year, however, as his 6.93 ERA and 1.62 WHIP (lowlighted by a 54:54 K:BB rate) would attest, he's hit the bottom. He's only 23, so there's still hope, but a lot of things will need to change.

Sonny Gray (Yankees) – I'm sure the Yankees thought they were getting a top of the rotation starter when they acquired Gray from Oakland last year, but so far it hasn't worked out like that. Gray is one of several pitchers who seem to be having a tough time adjusting to the home-run happy approach being adopted by many hitters. He's not a big swing and miss pitcher – a big benefit these days – but relies on inducing ground balls by keeping the ball down in the zone. Pitchers like him can really struggle when their command is not locked in, and his hasn't been, leading to too many walks and too many hits when he has to pitch from behind. I think there's a decent chance he will eventually make the adjustments, and with that lineup behind him he would then be a significant fantasy asset, but it could take some time, and his peripherals will suffer until then.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• The Rays' Blake Snell could have easily been included in the good segment of these Musings, except that his success is not a complete surprise. At 11-4 with a 2.24 ERA, he's enjoying a breakout season. I still get a little concerned when his command wavers, but he has potential ace stuff and can still improve.

• One Gray probably wasn't enough in the bad and ugly categories above, and I almost included the Rockies' Jon Gray. I expected him to be the ace of that staff, and thought he might be good enough to overcome the Coors Field handicap. After struggling, he was just sent to Triple-A, probably to rebuild his confidence.

• While he doesn't have overwhelming stuff, Toronto southpaw Ryan Borucki has impressed me with his ability to work well under pressure. He spots his fastball, and keeps hitters off balance with a good change-up. With J.A. Happ likely to be dealt, he could stick in the rotation, and possibly be helpful in deeper leagues.

• He's not quite a bad or ugly candidate, but the Phils' Jake Arrieta continues to post mediocre numbers. I'm at something of a loss to explain it. The velocity is where you would expect, and his homerun rate is actually better than last year, but he's not missing bats and hitters appear to be picking him up too well.

• Danny Salazar had arthroscopic surgery on his ailing shoulder, and has been declared out for the season. That should clear the way for the Tribe's top pitching prospect, Shane Bieber, to get an extended look. He has decent stuff but depends on command along with deception. I expect a mix of good and bad.

• A few weeks ago, I suggested Matt Harvey might be worth a snatch, and we've been tracking his progress in the Musings. He's not yet back to the glory days, but he's shown steady improvement. His velocity is up a bit, his command is much better, and he's won his last three starts. I continue to be encouraged.
  

With Hunter Strickland out at least another month, it appears the Giants may be settling on their bullpen roles. They continue to avoid using Mark Melancon on consecutive days, while Will Smith is being productive. I think those two might share endgame duties. With Shane Greene hitting the disabled list with a strained shoulder, the Tigers will have an opportunity to see how Joe Jimenez fares in the closer's role. Greene was likely a trade candidate, but this injury could reduce the chances of him moving before the deadline. If the positive results continue for Greg Holland – he has pitched well since returning from the disabled list – he could get back into the mix for saves in St. Louis. The Cubs closer usage might be worth monitoring. Brandon Morrow was held out of a save situation on Tuesday, reportedly just give him some extra rest, but this has occurred more than once recently, and he had a short stay on the disabled list. Perhaps nothing to worry about, but stay tuned. With Roberto Osuna out until early August, and Ryan Tepera now on the disabled list, the Toronto closer gig is again up for grabs. It could be Tyler Clippard (again) but I still lean toward Seung Hwan Oh.