Oak’s Corner: A Wheeler and a Walker

As we move rapidly toward the conclusion of the 2018 season while trying to grind out some league wins these last three weeks, I like to think about players who are especially interesting when considering where they may get drafted in 2019. Trying to figure out where breakout stars or struggling players should or will be drafted is always a tough science, as the breakout guys can often get overhyped, while the last year's bums can fall too far based on one poor season. I'll look at a few players like this each week in this column as we head toward the end of the season. This week, I'm focusing on a few breakouts.

Walker Buehler – Buehler has been an absolute godsend for the Dodgers as they have dealt with multiple injuries on their pitching staff. In his first extended major league season, Buehler has thrown 104.2 innings and posted an exceptional 2.92 ERA, although he has suffered from poor run support, only winning six of his 18 starts. The Dodgers have effectively limited his innings by starting him in the minors (and throwing only 13 innings there), and while the 104.2 innings are the most he has thrown to date, it's not so high a number that the Dodgers will not be able to fully deploy him down the stretch and in the playoffs, if they make it there.

The 24-year-old righty has not quite lived up to his massive strikeout numbers in the minors but has done just fine with a 9.89 K/9 rate so far this year while only walking 2.41 batters per nine. Buehler has been especially strong as of late, allowing two runs or fewer in each of his last seven starts. As we look forward to 2019 drafts, it's clear that Buehler will be very hyped as a big time prospect who thrived right away in his first exposure to major league hitters. With the struggles many fantasy players have had with starting pitching this year, someone with the Buehler upside is surely going to get pushed up, and my initial guess is by March when the NFBC Main Events are drafted, Buehler will be going in the fourth round, around pick 50 to 55.

Zack Wheeler – The former sixth overall pick has suffered from a multitude of injuries, and after missing essentially all of 2015 and 2016 (he threw one inning in 2016), he looked nothing like the former stud prospect in 2017. In 86.1 innings last year, he compiled a 5.21 ERA while walking over four guys per nine and allowing a massive 1.56 homers per nine. It appears Wheeler just needed to knock off some rust, as his 2018 has been brilliant. Through 167.1 innings, Wheeler has posted a 3.39 ERA while cutting his home run rate in half and dropping his walk rate to 2.80 BB/9. He has also seen a small boost in his strikeout rate over 9.00 K/9, right around his 2014 total, his last full season in the majors.

In a season where hard contact has been on the rise, Wheeler has done an exceptional job in that area, sporting a 26.6% hard hit rate which puts him third best among qualified starters, trailing only Aaron Nola and Chris Sale, some pretty decent company. One of the better signs regarding his health is that his velocity is actually at a career high with an average fastball of 95.9 mph, and he's also throwing his slider harder at 90.9 mph. Even while throwing fewer fastballs at only 58 percent, it has been a fantastic pitch for him with a 19.0 pitch value on Fangraphs. With an ERA over 5.00 through the first two months, Wheeler didn't start the season well, but he has been an utter beast since the start of June, with an ERA of 2.53 in 117.1 innings in the span. With his huge finish, Wheeler will be a very popular riser in 2019 drafts, and after only being drafted in eight of the 34 NFBC Main Events, I think he settles in as SP2 or SP3 for fantasy teams in the seventh round of 15 teamers. I plan on being a buyer there.

Trevor Story – After hitting three homers on Wednesday night, including a 505 foot moonshot, Story's remarkable season is finally getting the attention it deserves. A year after hitting only .239 with 24 homers and seven stolen bases, Story enters this weekend with a .298 average and an incredible power/speed combo line with 31 homers and 25 stolen bases. With half his games at Coors and shortstop eligibility, Story has always carried much intrigue, but the concern was always his batting average, which was dragged down by all the strikeouts. After a huge 34.4 percent strikeout rate in 2017, Story has made a dramatic improvement, dropping that number to 25.4 percent this year.

Most impressively, even with the increase in his contact rate, he has suffered nothing in regard to his hard contact, boosting that number to 45.3 percent. Story has never had a problem hitting the ball hard, as he has surpassed 40 percent in all three of his major league seasons, but it's still really nice to see he has not lost that while striking out so much less. With his hard contact and a 43.5 percent fly ball rate, the homers are going to be there, but the steals have been a surprise as he swiped a combined 15 in his first two seasons. As I try and figure out where he slots in next year, the concerns are whether the batting average bump can sustain and whether the stolen bases will return. While he's easily a top-10 hitter this season and he'll still call Coors Field home, I think those two factors (plus a lot of other really good players) will keep him out of the first round. I think he'll settle in the middle of the second round with an ADP somewhere around 21-25.

FAAB Feelings

Wade Miley – Every time I think about adding Miley after yet another good start, I look at his profile and pass and then regret it when he throws yet another gem. In what might be the most amazing stat line of the 2018 season, Miley has now made 12 starts for the Brewers and has yet to allow more than three earned runs, and he only has allowed three runs once. After struggling badly with strikeouts through the first eight starts culminating in a zero strikeout game in Atlanta on August 11, he has actually started to punch out some guys with 22 over his last four starts totaling 23.1 innings.

On the season, Miley has a 6.22 K/9 strikeout rate and a 3.11 BB/9, clearly numbers that don't often lead to a 2.12 ERA. The BABIP of .260 is clearly helping out and comes out about 70 points lower than his mark in the last two seasons. He has not improved the BABIP by limiting hard contact, as his hard contact rate currently sits at 39.5 percent, a career high. On the plus side, he's inducing a lot of ground balls at 50.3 percent, and the meager 25.9 percent fly ball rate has certainly helped him avoid the home run ball, allowing only three so far. The other thought I had was that maybe Miley had added newfound velocity, but a look at his pitch mix does not find that. However, it does seem that he's relying on a cutter, throwing the pitch 39.5 percent of the time after only 11.5 percent last year, and it has been effective for him with a 8.0 pitch value on Fangraphs.

Despite the new pitch mix that is clearly working for him, I find it hard to believe Miley isn't going to have a big hiccup in one of these starts the final three weeks. As teams expand their rosters and use young guys in spot starts, it becomes harder to find two-start pitchers and Miley is one this week, facing the Cubs in Wrigley followed by a home start against the Brewers. Miley is still only owned in 12 percent of NFBC 12-team leagues, but after another great start this week, that number is going to have to go up with the two starts this week. Both the Cubs and Pirates are in the bottom half of MLB in runs scored since the All Star Break, but even with his recent form and the matchups on paper, I cannot get away from my bad feeling that he is about to get his, and I'm going to pass on the coveted two-step this week.

Franmil Reyes – If you are in need of a power boost in these final three weeks of the season, Reyes may be the answer for whom you are looking. He's readily available in many leagues, as he is only owned in 12 percent of NFBC 12-team leagues. After a few flashes of good things earlier in the year, but running into issues with playing times, Reyes had a huge August, hitting .308 with seven homers and has already homered twice in September. He was a total power monster in the minors this year with 16 homers in only 58 Triple-A games, and it looks like he finally has earned regular playing time in the Padres outfield.

He's definitely striking out too much with a 31.5 percent strikeout rate, but it's important to note that his rate was over 40 percent through June, and since he has started playing regularly in early August it is down to only 23.3 percent. The power looks real with a 40.5 percent hard hit rate and while he probably needs to hit a few more fly balls (35.5 percent fly ball rate) to really bring all the homers, there is no doubt the guy can clear the fences. The batting average is a risk if the strikeouts creep back up at all, but with three weeks left, having the ability to grab someone with nine homers since August 1 is something you have to take a shot on if that category is bunched up at all in your league.

Series of the Weekend

Dodgers at Rockies – The NL West is the most fun division in baseball right now with the top three teams within 2.5 games of each other, and they seem to trade places almost every night. This weekend finds an enormous three-game set in Coors Field with the Dodgers in town. The Dodgers will be without Kenley Jansen for this series, as it was decided that the high altitude would not be worth the risk since he has twice experienced heart issues in the elevation of Denver. Jansen's well-being is clearly the most important aspect in that decision, but it does hurt the Dodgers on the field, as we saw them blow a number of late leads while Jansen was on the DL.

The Friday night matchup kicks off this series exceptionally well as Clayton Kershaw and Jon Gray take the mound. I will admit I have worried a bit about Kershaw at points this year with his diminished velocity (average fastball only 90.9 mph), he has done very little but produce for the Dodgers. He has surrendered two runs or fewer in all of his last eight starts, and while he has only punched out double-digit batters in one game all season, there's just no way to deny the elite 2.40 ERA. His impeccable control has been on display again this year, as his 1.37 BB/9 walk rate will be the sixth year in a row with a walk rate under 2.00 BB/9.

Looking ahead to 2019 drafts, the strikeout drop is the clear concern, as at 8.70 K/9, it's the lowest since 2008 and the first time he is under 10.00 K/9 since 2013. The velocity is likely contributing to fewer punch outs, and it can be seen in the drop from 14.1 to 11.3 percent in his swinging strike rate. The injuries will be the other issue in determining his 2019 draft spot, as this will now be the fourth time in the last five years that he won't make 30 starts. The consistent time missed is a big factor, and while his ratios still look great, Kershaw is going to fall out of the first round for the first time in a while. I think he'll settle in right around the 2/3 turn with an ADP in the low 30's.

The Rockies come into this series having won five in a row to slide into first place with a current 1.5 game lead on the Dodgers. The Rockies starting pitching has quietly been very effective with three starters sporting an ERA under 3.40 since the All-Star Break, but they really need Sunday's starter Tyler Anderson to find his form as he has been in a huge rut with a 7.88 ERA in his last eight starts including three starts where he has allowed more than six earned runs. In the bullpen, after a severe rough patch where it looked like he might lose the closer job, Wade Davis has righted the ship with 10 straight scoreless appearances. In that run, he has struck out 13 batters in 10 innings, but, most importantly, he has only walked two. If the Rockies are going to win this competitive division, they very much need Davis to be able to lock down leads these final three and a half weeks. This series promises to be a lot of fun, especially in Denver, with Friday's night pitching matchup creating a perfect start to the weekend.