This article is part of our Mound Musings series.
The following article, looking at bullpen constructs for the coming season, appeared in the 2019 Rotowire Fantasy Baseball Magazine, which hit newsstands in January. As you might expect, with the season now upon us, several bullpens have become more settled, but there are still many that could offer significant fantasy value in the coming weeks. Therefore, updating those potential opportunities will be our focus for this edition of Mound Musings.
Not that long ago, assessing a team's pitching staff heading into a season might have been challenging, but it was usually fairly consistent. Most teams would be fielding a rotation of five starting pitchers they hoped could pitch into the sixth or seventh inning, and a bullpen with somewhat defined roles. There would be a long man or two, in case the starter didn't get deep enough into the game, followed by set-up guys, charged with getting the game to the closer. Things simply aren't that cut and dried these days.
The focus here is on bullpens – but, we'll start by briefly discussing "openers" – the latest in the evolution of pitching tactics. Openers are technically starting pitchers, as they take the mound at the beginning of the game, however they are really relief pitchers, generally tasked with pitching the first inning, or sometimes two. A few teams have already experimented with the concept, and initial returns suggest this approach could stick around. The problem for fantasy owners is this tactic virtually eliminates any value for that reliever.
The following article, looking at bullpen constructs for the coming season, appeared in the 2019 Rotowire Fantasy Baseball Magazine, which hit newsstands in January. As you might expect, with the season now upon us, several bullpens have become more settled, but there are still many that could offer significant fantasy value in the coming weeks. Therefore, updating those potential opportunities will be our focus for this edition of Mound Musings.
Not that long ago, assessing a team's pitching staff heading into a season might have been challenging, but it was usually fairly consistent. Most teams would be fielding a rotation of five starting pitchers they hoped could pitch into the sixth or seventh inning, and a bullpen with somewhat defined roles. There would be a long man or two, in case the starter didn't get deep enough into the game, followed by set-up guys, charged with getting the game to the closer. Things simply aren't that cut and dried these days.
The focus here is on bullpens – but, we'll start by briefly discussing "openers" – the latest in the evolution of pitching tactics. Openers are technically starting pitchers, as they take the mound at the beginning of the game, however they are really relief pitchers, generally tasked with pitching the first inning, or sometimes two. A few teams have already experimented with the concept, and initial returns suggest this approach could stick around. The problem for fantasy owners is this tactic virtually eliminates any value for that reliever. They don't go the required five innings to qualify for a win, or the six innings to qualify for a quality start. There is no lead to hold or save, so some marginal help with ERA and WHIP with a handful of strikeouts is the most they will typically provide. Another reliever, usually the second or third to enter the game will often collect a win, but predicting who that might be is like throwing darts at a very small dartboard. It might be best – at least until scoring categories change – to avoid pitchers on teams deploying an "opener" strategy.
The other end of the spectrum – the endgame – is also experiencing some changes in approach. Traditionally, teams reserved their most dominant reliever for the ninth inning to hopefully protect a precarious lead. They usually entered at the beginning of the inning, with the bases empty, and a "save" on the line. They rarely pitched in non-save situations, and only entered the game before the ninth inning if they were desperately needed, and well rested. That is changing, and the reason for this change is pretty simple. Quality relief pitching, at least for some teams, is very thin. Now, that ace reliever could find himself called upon whenever the game is on the line. Prime examples from last season would be Josh Hader in Milwaukee or Seranthony Dominguez of the Phillies. Hader's usage expanded due to an injury to regular closer Corey Knebel, and Dominguez was asked to pitch anywhere between the sixth and ninth innings as Philadelphia searched for viable options. Over time, both saw a sharp decline in overall effectiveness.
The bottom line: Better teams, with more quality pitching depth, barring injuries, are usually both more predictable and more productive with regard to providing useful fantasy statistics. Ideally, you could fill your staff with pitchers from better teams, employing a traditional pitcher usage philosophy, and with the depth to maintain generally static roles for their bullpen arms. That would be ideal, but it would also be difficult. The relievers, especially the true closers, on those teams almost always command a high price/draft pick. There aren't going to be too many bargains. So, we'll explore ways to uncover some bargain arms – teams to watch, and what to look for. It's not an exact science, you will invariably pick the wrong heir from time-to-time, but as you become more comfortable assessing the pool of bullpen arms, your success rate will rise.
Obviously, you'll want to have one or two true closers on your staff, if possible. But, we need to come up with guys who may not be closing on day one, but could be in that role at some point. Let's start by taking a look at the factors I suggest you look for:
Inconsistent performance – This may seem rather obvious, but perhaps I should have labeled it "future" inconsistent performance. The astute fantasy manager can often predict future struggles for a thin bullpen. The key is to be ahead of the game (and your league opponents). Watch for a pitcher who consistently quashes threats.
A dominant arm emerging – A high strikeout rate, and hitters clearly struggling to make solid contact can be indicators of closing ability. The pitcher will need the opportunity to prove himself (see above), but the manager using him more and more frequently in high leverage situations is a very telling tip-off.
Past experience closing – This is always a tough one for me. You may notice that fringy (that's generous) closers seem to surface again and again in the ninth inning. Managers often place a great deal of emphasis on past experience in the role when looking for an alternative to the current struggling end-gamer. More often than not, the move to that mock-closer won't last, so have a Plan B ready if you need saves from that team.
Beware the underqualified set-up guy – Maybe the biggest mistake made when trolling for cheap saves, it is often assumed the successful, veteran eighth inning guy will be next in line to replace a faltering closer. The jobs are actually quite different. They require different skills, and a different mental approach. A soft-tossing groundball specialist may have a history of success in the seventh and eighth innings, but not be the next closer.
UPDATE: Reviewing some bullpens with potential question marks heading into 2019:
TBA – Perhaps the biggest bullpen question remaining to be answered, is where Craig Kimbrel will eventually land. He has been linked to several teams in talks, most recently with the Brewers who are currently without closer Corey Knebel and his primary back-up, Jeremy Jeffress, due to injuries. Kimbrel will be on a roster relatively soon, and while he may need a little time to get in game shape, I'm fairly certain he will only sign with a team guaranteeing him the closer's job. Obviously wherever that is, the bullpen roles will change dramatically. Stay tuned.
Diamondbacks – One of the first, at least mild, surprises was just announced. The D'Backs love Archie Bradley (understandably) but his ability to in assorted situations is a huge asset. Therefore, the closer-experienced Greg Holland will get the ninth inning to begin the season. Bradley is probably still considered an alternative (and should be a handcuff if possible), because Holland does present some concerns. He had a bizarre season in 2018. He was dreadful in St. Louis, but pitched reasonably well after moving to the Nationals. Which one will we get? I'm guessing he will hold his own as long as he stays healthy. Yoshihisa Hirano is also a possibility, but they prefer him in a set-up role.
Angels – Over the winter, I thought Ty Buttrey might be in line for fulltime closing duties for the Angels, but the team landed experienced closer, Cody Allen, and he should enter the season as the primary endgamer. Don't forget Buttrey. He has excellent stuff and is probably the next in line. Allen isn't a dominant closer, and any bumps in the road could open the door for him. I also like Justin Anderson, when he throws strikes, but he's probably behind Buttrey in the pecking order. Allen's experience in the role should give him plenty of leash, but I think this could be one to watch as the season progresses.
Giants – This remains an intriguing bullpen. San Francisco invested in the proven Mark Melancon, but injuries slowed him over most of last season. They played musical closers after Hunter Strickland (now gone) had a mental meltdown, finally landing on Will Smith late in the year. They have even mentioned Sam Dyson – one of those experienced guys who lacks true closer tools – but look for Melancon to reclaim the fulltime role if he proves healthy. Right now, Smith looks like he has the edge, but Melancon might be a necessary handcuff.
Royals – The team simply does not have an obvious or standout candidate to close games this year. They added Brad Boxberger who has spent time working in the ninth inning, most recently in Arizona, but he was not always effective. Wily Peralta finished 2018 as their endgamer and he did a respectable job, but he's better suited to a setup role. Ian Kennedy has moved to the pen. Could he emerge as a darkhorse possibility? Maybe, but they probably see him as a swingman. I have mentioned Josh Staumont in the past, but he still hasn't found a way to throw strikes. Right now Peralta probably has a slight edge, but I think Boxberger will probably get his shot.
Cardinals – Here we have a "closer of the future" facing the opportunity to prove the future is now. There is no question the flamethrower Jordan Hicks is the guy the Cardinals see pitching in the ninth inning, but he has not shown the consistent ability to command his devastating stuff. It's coming though, and it appears he'll get his chance to prove he has arrived right now. The addition of super-reliever, Andrew Miller, certainly buys the team an insurance policy, but they would like to stay flexible with him. And, keep Alex Reyes in mind. He is still destined to be at the top of their rotation, but the Cardinals want to limit his innings this season. He definitely has the tools if pressed into service, but closing can be challenging when monitoring workload.
Red Sox – Interestingly, there have been no additions. "I would be very surprised if they don't plug that hole with a proven closer before you read this." At this writing, Matt Barnes is probably the most likely candidate to finish games, but he's not an experienced ninth inning guy, and has the skill set to pitch high leverage innings earlier the game. His primary competition is probably Ryan Brasier (he is day-to-day with a toe infection), but at age 31, with 42 innings of Major League experience, he's not exactly a proven commodity. Even Heath Hembree could jump into the mix. I just don't see the Red Sox as a franchise playing the season undermanned.
Cubs – When he's healthy, Brandon Morrow is an elite closer. The problem is, healthy and Morrow are rarely used in the same sentence. He missed time last season with back and arm injuries and underwent surgery – supposedly minor – to clean up his elbow in November. When he's right, he'll close, but Pedro Strop is probably a necessary handcuff. Morrow is progressing and the latest timeline indicates he could be back in late April or early May. I will also again include Carl Edwards Jr. in the equation. He has the stuff and could be the ninth inning guy someday, but Morrow will be the guy as soon as he is ready.
Mariners – Seattle is now in a full-blown rebuild. Premier closer, Edwin Diaz was shipped to the Mets so there is a job open at the back of their bullpen. The most likely guys to get a shot were Anthony Swarzak, (but he's probably better suited to a set-up role), and possibly Dan Altavilla, (but he still needs to display some consistency to earn a more prominent role and was reassigned to Tfriple-A). That all changed with the addition of Hunter Strickland. Strickland needs to keep his emotions in check, but he is clearly their best option heading into the season.
Twins – I am going to add another team that wasn't in the magazine. The forecast in Minnesota is cloudy with a chance of committee – always a challenge for fantasy owners. The Twins have recently listed almost every reliever on their roster as a "possibility" for saves. I think the closing gig could be shared, but despite the addition of Blake Parker, I look for Trevor May (a righty) and Taylor Rogers (a lefty and probably their best reliever) to surface as the endgamers.
The day is here. Let's play ball!
