AL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week

AL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week

This article is part of our AL FAAB Factor series.

This is our weekly look at American League free agents. We have two goals for this article:

1. Identify likely free agents and discuss their strengths and weaknesses.

2. Estimate how much of your $100 starting free-agent budget you should bid on them.
 

We've incorporated grids into the FAAB articles, so users can easily see at a glance how certain players stack up against others and how much they should command in a variety of formats.

The grids, which are sortable by column (click on the header), include a very basic "player grade" column. This serves as a reflection of a player's skills and role on an A-E scale. Shohei Ohtani would have been an "A" grade player last year – that mark will be reserved for similarly high-impact prospects stepping into an everyday role.
 

As always, if there is a player that was not discussed in the article that you would like to know about, feel free to ask about the player in the comments.
 

AL FAAB | NL FAAB

PLAYERTEAMPOSGRADE12-Team Mixed $15-Team Mixed $AL-Only $
Aaron BrooksOAKSPDNoNo3
Clay BuchholzTORSPCNo14
Kyle GibsonMINSPC22Owned
Gio GonzalezNYSPCNo14
Jorge LopezKCSPCNo25
Reynaldo LopezCHISPC22Owned
CC SabathiaNYSPC3715
Ervin SantanaCHISPC137

This is our weekly look at American League free agents. We have two goals for this article:

1. Identify likely free agents and discuss their strengths and weaknesses.

2. Estimate how much of your $100 starting free-agent budget you should bid on them.
 

We've incorporated grids into the FAAB articles, so users can easily see at a glance how certain players stack up against others and how much they should command in a variety of formats.

The grids, which are sortable by column (click on the header), include a very basic "player grade" column. This serves as a reflection of a player's skills and role on an A-E scale. Shohei Ohtani would have been an "A" grade player last year – that mark will be reserved for similarly high-impact prospects stepping into an everyday role.
 

As always, if there is a player that was not discussed in the article that you would like to know about, feel free to ask about the player in the comments.
 

AL FAAB | NL FAAB

PLAYERTEAMPOSGRADE12-Team Mixed $15-Team Mixed $AL-Only $
Aaron BrooksOAKSPDNoNo3
Clay BuchholzTORSPCNo14
Kyle GibsonMINSPC22Owned
Gio GonzalezNYSPCNo14
Jorge LopezKCSPCNo25
Reynaldo LopezCHISPC22Owned
CC SabathiaNYSPC3715
Ervin SantanaCHISPC137
Hector VelazquezBOSSPDNo13
Heath FillmyerKCSPE111
Matt HarveyLASPD111
Shelby MillerTEXSPD111
Martin PerezMINSPD111
Dan StrailyBALSPD111
Ryan BrasierBOSRPD2145Owned
Brandon BrennanSEARPENoNo2
Roenis EliasSEARPD3715
Shawn KelleyTEXRPENo14
Kyle HigashiokaNYCENoNo2
Josh PhegleyOAKCD14Owned
Austin RomineNYCENo13
Daniel VogelbachSEA1BB1535Owned
Logan ForsytheTEX2BDNo14
Dustin PedroiaBOS2BC149
Hanser AlbertoBAL3BENoNo3
Patrick WisdomTEX3BDNoNo1
Carlos GonzalezCLEOFC2511
Alex GordonKCOFC13Owned
JaCoby JonesDETOFC2513
Danny SantanaTEXOFENoNo1

Starting Pitcher

Aaron Brooks, Athletics: Brooks is enjoying a solid if unspectacular start to 2019, wrangling a 4.24 ERA and 1.12 WHIP through three outings, including two quality starts. It's mid-April and the waiver wire is already getting thin in deep AL-only formats, so while Brooks doesn't have have any kind of upside – he's got a 6.0 K/9 in his big-league career – the right-hander's got a regular spot in the Oakland rotation and could get some wins without crushing your ratios. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team AL: $3

Clay Buchholz, Blue Jays: The veteran hurler looked pretty good in his Jays debut Saturday, holding the Rays in check over six innings. Buchholz did this last year in Arizona too, and he seems to be turning into the right-handed Brett Anderson – useful when he's healthy, but not a pitcher you can count on for consistent innings. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team AL: $4

Kyle Gibson, Twins: After a shockingly good 2018, Gibson has staggered out of the gate this year, getting smacked around by the Royals and Mets in two road starts. This is the week his numbers could get healthy in a hurry, though. The 31-year-old faces the Jays and O's in a two-start period – offenses that rank 24th and 23rd in wOBA against RHP so far, with Toronto also ranking 29th in K-rate against them. Gibson's probably the best readily available streaming option this week, and it's also encouraging that he hasn't given back any of the velocity gains he made last year. 12-team Mixed: $2; 15-team Mixed: $2; 12-team AL: Owned

Gio Gonzalez, Yankees: Gonzalez fanned 10 in his most recent start at Triple-A on Tuesday and has an opt-out clause in his contract he can exercise April 20 if he's not on the Yankees' 25-man roster, so it seems likely he'll be in uniform with someone by next week. The 33-year-old saw his numbers take a big step backwards in 2018, but he'll probably still capable of providing a team with semi-consistent innings. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team AL: $4

Jorge Lopez, Royals: The former Brewer has given the Royals back-to-back quality starts, and Lopez's numbers through three outings (3.71 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) aren't bad. He hasn't shown big strikeout upside in the majors yet, but his minor-league performance has been a little more encouraging. You can't say he has no upside at all, and the 26-year-old is probably worth a deep-league roster spot, but keep your expectations in check. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: $2; 12-team AL: $5

Reynaldo Lopez, White Sox: So, OK, look, I know picking up a pitcher who has a WHIP that looks like an ERA – and a HR/9 that looks like a bad ERA – requires a huge leap of faith. Nonetheless, Lopez is set to face the Royals and Tigers this week, and if he's going to flip the switch, this seems like a likely spot to do it. It would help if he could stop walking four batters an outing, but K.C. could help in that regard – they're 26th in the majors in BB-rate against RHP. 12-team Mixed: $2; 15-team Mixed: $2; 12-team AL: Owned

CC Sabathia, Yankees: If you were at all concerned about CC's performance coming off the IL, five scoreless, one-hit innings against the White Sox on Saturday should put your mind at rest. Sabathia hasn't had an ERA above 4.00 since 2015, and while you'd rather be a year early bailing on an aging pitcher than a year too late (ahem, hi there J.A. Happ), there's no real reason to think Sabathia can't keep chugging along. 12-team Mixed: $3; 15-team Mixed: $7; 12-team AL: $15

Ervin Santana, White Sox: Santana looked awful in his first outing, and it's understandable if you consider him radioactive, or at least think he should be relegated to the "bums with two-start weeks" list below. It's a really good two-start week, though – home to the Royals, at the Tigers – and if there was one bit of encouraging news from Tuesday's disaster, it's that his fastball velocity was up from last year's 88.8 mph average. It wasn't quite back in the 92-93 mph range he was sitting in before finger issues derailed his 2018 either, but it was at least some sign of progress. 12-team Mixed: $1; 15-team Mixed: $3; 12-team AL: $7

Hector Velazquez, Red Sox: Velazquez will make a spot start Monday to give guys like Chris Sale some extra rest, but it's not hard to see a scenario in which the right-hander winds up as a more regular part of the rotation. Velazquez has had his moments the last couple of years, and he's off to a strong start to 2019 in long relief, posting a 9:0 K:BB through 9.2 innings. He's just a stash right now, as he likely won't last long enough to qualify for a win Monday. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team AL: $3
 

Other two-start options (12-team Mixed: $1; 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team AL: $1)

Heath Fillmyer, Royals (at CHW, at NYY)

Matt Harvey, Angels (at TEX, vs SEA)

Shelby Miller, Rangers (vs LAA, vs HOU)

Martin Perez, Twins (vs TOR, at BAL)

Dan Straily, Orioles (at BOS, vs. MIN)
 

Relief Pitcher

Ryan Brasier, Red Sox: It's now three saves to one for Brasier over Matt Barnes, and it looks like the Red Sox plan on deploying the latter in that "highest-leverage" role while Brasier gets a more traditional ninth-inning assignment. That's great news for his fantasy value, and the second-year right-hander is still sitting unrostered in far too many leagues considering he could be headed for a 30-save campaign. 12-team Mixed: $21; 15-team Mixed: $45; 12-team AL: Owned

Brandon Brennan, Mariners: The unheralded Rule 5 pick looks like a steal so far for Seattle, tossing 10.2 scoreless innings with an 11:2 K:BB to begin his big-league career. Brennan's fastball-changeup combo looks legit, and while he isn't in a top spot in the M's bullpen yet, he does have a win and two holds in eight appearances. If he keeps getting results, the 27-year-old could quickly find himself in the late-inning mix in a bullpen that's still pretty unsettled. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team AL: $2

Roenis Elias, Mariners: The veteran swingman has been another effective arm in the Seattle bullpen, grabbing a win, a hold and two saves through eight appearances with a 9:4 K:BB in 9.2 innings. Elias saw a typical velocity spike working shorter outings in 2018 which has carried forward into this season, and while Anthony Swarzak looks like the team's top option for saves right now, Elias may continue to get the nod in scenarios that require a lefty. 12-team Mixed: $3; 15-team Mixed: $7; 12-team AL: $15

Shawn Kelley, Rangers: Jose Leclerc's early struggles have already forced Rangers manager Chris Woodward to issue a dreaded vote of confidence in his closer, so it's time to start looking for alternatives. Unfortunately, there's isn't much. Jeanmar Gomez had 37 saves in 2016 for the Phillies but has never been that reliable. Chris Martin has a mid-90s fastball and a 21-save campaign in Japan on his resume, but his MLB numbers are thoroughly underwhelming. If Texas does eventually feel compelled to make a change in the ninth inning, Kelley might be the team's best option. The veteran set-up man has never recorded more than seven saves in a season, but he's posted a sub-3.00 ERA and sub-1.10 WHIP in three of the last four years with generally plus strikeout rates. He at least shouldn't hurt you if you decide to pick him up now as a spec saves play, while he's cheap and Leclerc still has job security. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team AL: $4

Catcher

Kyle Higashioka, Yankees: Gary Sanchez is the latest Yankee to hit the IL, which puts Higashoika back in the majors to back up Austin Romine. He's got some pop, slugging 21 homers between Double-A and Triple-A in 2016, but you shouldn't expect more than an occasional homer from Higashioka even if he does get semi-regular playing time. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team AL: $2

Josh Phegley, Athletics: Phegley's seized control of the starting job in Oakland, hitting safely in seven straighht games with three homers to boost his slash line to .333/.351/.639. That's rarified air for a 31-year-old with a career .651 OPS. Phegley's going to cool off, but catcher is thin enough that even the promise of consistent at-bats from a guy with a career .651 OPS has some appeal, and the power at least might be for real – he hit nine homers in 72 games during his first season with the A's in 2015. 12-team Mixed: $1; 15-team Mixed: $4; 12-team AL: Owned

Austin Romine, Yankees: Sanchez's calf injury may not keep him sidelined for long, but Romine will take over starting duties until he's back. The 30-year-old is coming off the best offensive season of his career – a .244 batting average and 10 homers in 77 games – but if that's the high end of his range, he's not exactly a priority target. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team AL: $3

First Base

Daniel Vogelbach, Mariners: Is Vogelbach finally having his long-awaited breakout season? Six homers and a .424/.524/1.091 slash line through 11 games is a heck of a start to one. There is some cause for concern here beyond the sample size, namely how crowded the 1B/DH picture is in Seattle. Ryon Healy, Jay Bruce and Edwin Encarnacion are all looking for playing time as well, and while Healy is seeing some action at third base for now, Vogelbach isn't even in the lineup every day while he's scorching hot. Once he cools down, he may not get enough at-bats to be useful in shallower formats. On the other hand, the 26-year-old arguably has the most upside of anybody in that group – including Encarnacion – so if he keeps raking, the M's would be smart to make Vogelbach 's development the priority and worry about slotting everyone else in around him. Grabbing him now could give you five and a half months of an impact power bat. Are the M's smart? The jury's still out, really. 12-team Mixed: $15; 15-team Mixed: $31; 12-team AL: Owned

Second Base

Logan Forsythe, Rangers: With Rougned Odor and Ronald Guzman both on the IL, the right side of the infield is a bit of a mess for Texas. Forsythe, at least, should play basically every day at either second base or first, with other bench options slotting in where he isn't. The veteran infielder does have that 20-HR campaign with Tampa on his resume, but he hit eight homers in 239 games in the two seasons after that and is still looking for his first long ball of 2019. Don't expect more than bulk at-bats and the occasional runs/RBI that come with it. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team AL: $4

Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox: Pedroia made his 2019 debut Tuesday and has gone 2-for-11 in three games, but for now just being reasonably healthy is an accomplishment. He's 35 years old with 55-year-old knees, so while it's great that he's back on the field, there's no guarantee Pedroia can still contribute offensively, and the Red Sox will almost certainly give him frequent days off even if he is hitting well. Don't get sucked into a bidding war for him based on his name brand. 12-team Mixed: $1; 15-team Mixed: $4; 12-team AL: $9

Third Base

Hanser Alberto, Orioles: Shockingly, the O's plan to use two Rule 5 picks at shortstop didn't uncover the next Manny Machado and/or Cal Ripken, although Richie Martin and his .443 OPS may be the next Mark Belanger. As a result, Jonathan Villar has had to slide over from second base on a regular basis, opening up playing time at the keystone for Alberto in addition to his occasional platoon duties at third base. The 26-year-old Rangers castoff put up some solid numbers last year at Triple-A Round Rock, and while he doesn't offer much power or speed, with semi-regular playing time Alberto could chip in a decent, if empty, batting average. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team AL: $3

Patrick Wisdom, Rangers: Wisdom is one of the other Rangers squeezing into the lineup occasionally around Forsythe. The 27-year-old's calling card as a Card was a 31-HR campaign in 2017 for Triple-A Memphis, but that power came with a .243 batting average, and his efforts to make more contact last year resulted in a steep drop in homers. Wisdom hasn't got on track yet in Texas, striking out in six of his 12 plate appearances, but with the team supposedly in rebuild mode he could get a longer look at some point. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team AL: $1

Outfield

Carlos Gonzalez, Cleveland: The former Rockie finally got called up Sunday and will immediately hit third for Cleveland, which is a fairly massive indictment of the quality of the team's lineup right now. Gonzalez has a career .251/.307/.420 line outside Coors Field, and at 33 years old a resurgence seems highly unlikely, but his name brand and the promise of consistent at-bats will probably push bidding on him higher than it should go. Unless you're desperate for warm bodies in your lineup, this is one Winner's Curse you want to avoid if you can. 12-team Mixed: $2; 15-team Mixed: $5; 12-team AL: $11

Alex Gordon, Royals: Speaking of highly unlikely resurgences, Gordon's slashing .356/.456/.667 through 13 games. No, I don't get it either, but the 35-year-old is too hot to ignore. He hasn't had an OPS over .700 since 2015, so the bottom is probably going to fall out for him in a hurry, but Nick Markakis figured something out last year, so maybe it's just Gordon's turn to be Old Man Value. 12-team Mixed: $1; 15-team Mixed: $3; 12-team AL: Owned

JaCoby Jones, Tigers: Jones returned to the lineup this weekend and immediately slotted back in as the starting center fielder, going 2-for-4 with a steal in his second game back. The 26-year-old offers decent power and speed even if he remains a batting average liability, and while at some point the Tigers may want to hand center field over to Daz Cameron, the most likely scenario in that case just sees Jones slide over to left, with Christin Stewart becoming the full-time DH. 12-team Mixed: $2; 15-team Mixed: $5; 12-team AL: $13

Danny Santana, Rangers: Called up when Odor hit the IL, Santana is a one-time fantasy sleeper with the Twins after he hit .319 with 20 steals in 101 games in 2014. He's done very little since, but the 28-year-old could swipe a base or two over the next couple of weeks if he sees semi-regular playing time at second base. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team AL: $1

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Erik Siegrist
Erik Siegrist is an FSWA award-winning columnist who covers all four major North American sports (that means the NHL, not NASCAR) and whose beat extends back to the days when the Nationals were the Expos and the Thunder were the Sonics. He was the inaugural champion of Rotowire's Staff Keeper baseball league. His work has also appeared at Baseball Prospectus.
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