Regan's Rumblings: Odd Numbers
Regan's Rumblings: Odd Numbers

This article is part of our Regan's Rumblings series.

In perusing through a number of different stats, I thought I'd share some observations.

0-5

Chris Sale's W/L record headed into May.

Meanwhile, Andrew Cashner is 4-1. This is crazy, but let's compare the two through April 29:

Metric

Sale

Cashner

W-L record

0-5

4-1

ERA

6.30

4.18

xFIP

4.29

5.11

WHIP

1.40

1.39

K/9

9.6

5.6

BB/9

3.0

3.6

HR/9

2.1

1.4

Avg FB velo

92.3

93.4

Not shockingly, xFIP predicts regressing for Cashner and improvement for Sale, but what else can we read into the underlying data? See what you think about the following statements:

Something is mechanically or physically off with Sale. A 2.4 mph year-over-year drop in velocity is troubling. Sale is also not showing near the control he's showed in the past, as his BB/9 is a full one point higher or more than the rates he's put up consistently over the past six seasons. I've seen him get up to 97 at times, so we know he can reach back and sling it, but the velocity overall is clearly down. Remember, shoulder issues limited Sale to 29 second-half innings a year ago.

Cashner won't keep pace and go 24-6. Well yeah, considering he plays for the Orioles and has never won more than 11 games in a season, that's safe to say. His very low 6.9 percent swinging strike rate is right in line with past finishes, and his 44.7 percent hard hit rate is well above his 31 percent career mark, so

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
David Regan
David Regan is a six-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association award winner, including the 2015 Baseball Article of the Year and the 2010 Baseball Writer of the Year.
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