This article is part of our Minor League Barometer series.
As the minor league season draws to a close, the final Minor League Barometer of the year will serve as a summary of the biggest movers during the 2019 campaign. We will exclude those players that have already had a fair share of at-bats in the big leagues, and also try to focus largely on those players outside of the short-season leagues. 2019 draftees will also be left out. So for starters, my apologies go out to Marco Luciano, George Valera, Kristian Robinson and CJ Abrams. It is also impossible to list every player, so I will also give honorable mentions to Julio Rodriguez, Heliot Ramos and Deivi Garcia as they all improved their stock tremendously this year.
With all that aside, here are the best (and worst) of the movers and shakers for the 2019 campaign in the minor leagues. As always, thanks for reading. I'll see you on the flip side.
UPGRADE
Gavin Lux, SS, LAD – Perhaps no hitting prospect has helped their cause more this season than Lux, who was already a highly touted phenom heading into the year. However, he has attained truly elite status with a superior 2019 campaign. Despite being just 21, Lux slashed .313/.375/.521 in 64 games at Double-A to go with 13 home runs, 37 RBI and seven steals. That resulted in a promotion to Triple-A, where he has performed even better with an absurd .390/.478/.723 line complemented by 13 home runs, 39 RBI and seven
As the minor league season draws to a close, the final Minor League Barometer of the year will serve as a summary of the biggest movers during the 2019 campaign. We will exclude those players that have already had a fair share of at-bats in the big leagues, and also try to focus largely on those players outside of the short-season leagues. 2019 draftees will also be left out. So for starters, my apologies go out to Marco Luciano, George Valera, Kristian Robinson and CJ Abrams. It is also impossible to list every player, so I will also give honorable mentions to Julio Rodriguez, Heliot Ramos and Deivi Garcia as they all improved their stock tremendously this year.
With all that aside, here are the best (and worst) of the movers and shakers for the 2019 campaign in the minor leagues. As always, thanks for reading. I'll see you on the flip side.
UPGRADE
Gavin Lux, SS, LAD – Perhaps no hitting prospect has helped their cause more this season than Lux, who was already a highly touted phenom heading into the year. However, he has attained truly elite status with a superior 2019 campaign. Despite being just 21, Lux slashed .313/.375/.521 in 64 games at Double-A to go with 13 home runs, 37 RBI and seven steals. That resulted in a promotion to Triple-A, where he has performed even better with an absurd .390/.478/.723 line complemented by 13 home runs, 39 RBI and seven steals over 48 outings. Lux has drawn almost as many walks (33) as strikeouts (41). An argument can be made that other than Wander Franco, he is the top prospect in baseball. No matter what happens in September, Lux should get every opportunity to make the big-league club out of the gate in 2020.
Drew Waters, OF, ATL – The hit tool for Waters has been on full display in 2019. He won't turn 21 until December, but the switch-hitting centerfielder has already ascended to Triple-A after raking for the majority of the year in Double-A. In 108 games at the latter level, Waters batted .319/.366/.481 with five home runs, 41 RBI and 13 steals. Superstar Ronald Acuna is manning centerfield, but the Braves could open spots on either side of him in 2020. The Braves are hoping some of Waters' 40 doubles turn into home runs as he matures, and he does still have to work on cutting down his strikeouts a bit. That being said, along with Cristian Pache, the Braves could soon roll out a starting outfield made up of emerging youngsters who are no older than 22.
Tarik Skubal, P, DET – With honorable mentions going to Skubal's rotation mates Matt Manning and Casey Mize, Tarik has become an absolute stud in 2019. Between High-A and Double-A, the 22-year old southpaw posted a 2.42 ERA and 179:37 K:BB in just 122.2 innings. And he got even better after his promotion to Double-A, as opposing batters are hitting a putrid .168 against the 6-foot-3 lefty. Skubal had one Division I offer coming out of high school, then missed all of 2017 due to Tommy John surgery. In 2018 at Seattle University, he showed promise but struggled with his control - which is not uncommon coming off the surgery. Skubal's control issues appear to be a thing of the past, as he has missed bats at an incredible rate this season. With his fastball velocity sitting comfortable in the mid-90's, a plus-breaking ball and emerging changeup, Skubal has rocketed up the charts this season. With Mize, Manning, Skubal and Alex Faedo all coming up to the bigs shortly, the Tigers could have a star-studded rotation in the near future.
Nate Pearson, P, TOR – Pearson suffered an injury-plagued 2018, but has bounced back in 2019. In fact, he has already advanced to his third-different level this year. The 23-year old righty is currently at Triple-A, having notched a 2.05 ERA and 114:24 K:BB in 96.2 innings across all levels. Pearson was selected in the 2017 first round, so the promise has always existed, but he has clearly come back with a vengeance from the injuries. The 6-foot-6, 245lb can hit triple digits on the radar gun with movement, but he also owns a wipeout slider and his third pitch - a sometimes changeup, sometimes curveball - is coming along as well. Pearson should debut in the big leagues sometime in 2020 with huge upside.
CHECK STATUS
Jarred Kelenic, OF, SEA – Kelenic and Justin Dunn have both enjoyed standout seasons after coming over from the Mets in the Edwin Diaz/Robinson Cano blockbuster. Kelenic is currently getting a taste of Double-A after pasting the pitching at Low-A to begin the year, and then more than holding his own in the friendly-hitting California League. As a whole, he is slashing .291/.364/.528 with 20 home runs, 62 RBI and 20 steals in 113 games. Kelenic's power already appears to be coming around, he can certainly swipe a few bags, and has also shown the ability to hit for average. At just 20, the future appears to be exceptionally bright for last year's first round pick. One has to wonder if the Mets are already regretting this trade.
Kris Bubic, P, KC – As we have talked about frequently in this article, the Royals invested heavily in starting pitching in last year's draft. While Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar and Daniel Lynch have all performed admirably this season, it has been Bubic who has shown the most strikeout potential. The 22-year old southpaw out of Stanford toyed with hitters at Low-A to begin the year, racking up 75 strikeouts in just 47.2 innings. Since being promoted to High-A, Bubic has continued to shine, posting a 2.45 ERA and 107:24 K:BB in 95.2 innings. Over his last 10 starts at this level, he has looked fantastic by managing a 1.83 ERA and 76:12 K:BB. Bubic has recorded four double-digit strikeout games over that span of 64 innings. Double-A will be the bigger test for the polished collegiate lefty, who has found little resistance thus far in the minor leagues.
Jorge Mateo, SS, OAK – Mateo appears to have resurrected his career this season. Once a hot-shot prospect on the Bronx Bombers, he came to the Athletics in the ill-fated Sonny Gray deal and floundered at first, even moving to outfield for a time. Mateo has found his footing in 2019, hitting .288/.329/.502 with 18 home runs, 76 RBI and 23 steals through 115 games for Triple-A Las Vegas. His uptick in power is nice, though this may be an aberration or him taking advantage of playing in the Pacific Coast League. Mateo is impatient at the dish with a 140:28 K:BB, and is currently blocked by Marcus Semien at the big-league level. He has clearly turned things around, but is far from a sure thing even once he eventually gets a chance.
Taylor Trammell, OF, SD – Trammell has lost a bit of his luster this season. He's batted just .225 in 122 games at Double-A, split between the Cincinnati and San Diego organizations as a result of being dealt to the Padres as part of the Trevor Bauer trade. Trammell faces less competition in San Diego than in Cincinnati, but still has to prove he can hit for average. His power also hasn't really materialized, as he's only managed eight home runs for the second-straight year. Trammell does show the ability to take a walk, but strikeouts have also hindered his game. Add in the fact his 20 steals are currently his lowest single-season total since entering the minors, and it is clear Trammell needs some work to regain his elite prospect status.
DOWNGRADE
Forrest Whitley, P, HOU – Whitley remains a top pitching prospect, but his last two seasons have been marred by injury and inconsistency. It's easy to forget he is still just 21 with the way he burst onto the scene in 2017. Since that time, Whitley has pitched just 84 innings. The strikeout stuff is always present, as he's registered 83 punch outs in just 57.2 innings this season alone. However, Whitley has also walked 43 batters over that span and surrendered 11 home runs en route to a bloated 7.80 ERA across four levels. He battled shoulder fatigue this year, lat and oblique issues last year, and also was suspended for 50 games at the beginning of 2018 for violating the MLB's drug policy. Whitley still oozes potential, but the road to the big leagues continues to be a bumpy ride for the 6-foot-7 hurler.
Brent Honeywell, P, TB – Honeywell suffered a setback in his attempt to return from Tommy John surgery, fracturing a bone in his elbow in June and undergoing another surgery while not pitching in 2019. That means if/when Honeywell steps on the mound in 2020 in live game action, it will be his first time since 2017. With two completely lost seasons, the 24-year old righty who reinvented the screwball will have his work cut out for him in order to return to his stellar prior form. Honeywell is not scheduled to resume throwing again until January, and it is fair to wonder the pace at which he will progress as well as what kind of pitcher he can be following injury and a long layoff.
Estevan Florial, OF, NYY – The Yankees have been mashing the ball at the big-league level this season, with so much depth in the outfield that has left high-upside players like Clint Frazier relegated to Triple-A status. Florial was arguably the top prospect for the Yankees coming into the spring, but he broke his wrist in March and missed about a month. Upon his return, Florial has struggled by batting just .237/.297/.383 with eight home runs, 38 RBI and nine steals in 74 games at High-A. Strikeouts remain a red flag, as he has fanned 98 times in those 74 contests. The wrist injury may also have sapped some of his raw power, and he has been caught too much on the basepaths for someone with his speed. Florial may still just be scratching the surface of his potential, but it is clear the 2019 campaign has proved disappointing.
Taylor Widener, P, ARI – While it has been a banner year in the hitting department for Diamondbacks prospects (Kristian Robinson, Alek Thomas, Corbin Carroll, to name a few), the pitching has been far less passable. Top prospect Jon Duplantier has been suspect in both the minors and Majors this season, shuffling between the rotation and bullpen. Widener, meanwhile, has seen most of the goodwill emanating from his standout 2018 campaign evaporate by compiling an 8.18 ERA in 99 innings for Triple-A Reno this season. while opposing batters have hit an absurd .326 against. The 24-year old's 2019 campaign is likely to end with him on the Injured List with an undisclosed injury. A top pitching prospect heading into this year, Widener is set to be a mere afterthought in 2020.
