Mound Musings: 2020 First-Year Player Draft Edition

This should be a highlight of the season for me. After all, it's always a highlight of my baseball season. Draft day always brings an infusion of new, and hopefully exciting, arms into professional baseball, and into the spotlight for fantasy baseball junkies like us. As usual, I settled in the other night with iced tea and snacks, notebook in hand, and a list of pitchers I wanted to check in on. Where would they go? What would the film clips show? What would other analysts have to say? What a night, right? Even the lurking shadow of no 2020 season couldn't totally dull the excitement. Obviously, this is focused on keeper and dynasty formats, but the top guys will be on redraft fantasy draft boards sooner than you might think. Damn, we need some baseball.

Some general observations from Draft Day

Most analyst saw this year's draft as relatively deep with pitching, especially with regard to college pitchers. In general, I would agree. While I don't immediately see a standout generational talent in this year's draft, there are quite a few who could get there. High school arms, even the really good ones, have always been considered risky, and I think that continues to be a factor. There are injury risks, and the challenge of accurately predicting the ultimate ceiling of a younger pitcher, so many teams focus on the top college prospects. Besides, with an increasingly shallow pool of quality pitchers at the MLB level, teams desperately seeking help on the mound want that help as soon as possible, and obviously, college arms are closer – at least in theory.

I think, and it's just my opinion, that the current trend in the approach to pitching is now becoming more evident in both the high school and college pitchers arriving on draft days. Everyone looks for velocity with a hard slider often next on the list, so a pitching prospect with a more advanced repertoire often moves that guy higher on my list. Don't get me wrong, I love the big arms too, but a reliable change-up and/or curveball usually draws my immediate attention.

Okay, let's take a look at the cream of the 2020 draft class.

Here are a few higher ceiling arms I think you should add to your watch list:

• Asa Lacy (Kansas City Royals – 4th overall) – Prior to the draft, the competition for the top spot on my draft list was pretty intense. Of course I wish I could have more of the candidates this spring, but COVID-19 ended that. I decided on Asa "the Ace" for a number of reasons. The big (6'4") southpaw from Texas A&M just had too many attributes on the plus side of his ledger. He has a four pitch mix, all already at or with plus potential. His heavy fastball sits in the upper 90's and he compliments it with a nasty 87 mph slider, a solid curve, and most importantly, an advanced change-up. He uses his body built for innings to repeat a pretty clean motion (impressive especially for a lefty), and everything about him suggests he could find himself on a fast track to the majors as soon as baseball resumes.
• Max Meyer (Miami Marlins – 3rd overall) – I really appreciate pitchers who are both mentally and physically tough, and Meyer covers both those bases. Besides his pitching accomplishments at Minnesota, he was also recognized as a very talented hockey player. He's on the smallish side at just 6'0' and 185 pounds, but his electric right arm makes that less concerning. He touches triple digits with his fastball, and had arguably the best slider in this year's draft. Given the popularity of that pitch, that's saying something. I think he's going to need to further develop an off-speed pitch, but it already has the potential to be at least adequate which will make his stellar fastball/slider combo all the more dangerous. The Marlins are in rebuild mode, so there is no need to rush him, but he could develop fairly quickly and that could see him in Miami fairly soon. In fact, he could close today, but his future is in the rotation.
• Emerson Hancock (Seattle Mariners – 6th overall) – Like Lacy and Meyer, Hancock was in the mix for top arm in this year's draft, and all three were off the board six picks in. A 6'4" righty with a full four-pitch repertoire, he makes the list because he can throw all those pitches for quality strikes. Hancock also gets points for pitching in the SEC (University of Georgia) so he's accustomed to facing the best every time out on the mound. His fastball sits in the upper 90's, his slider is sharp, and he has that prized advanced change-up with a lot of depth; all of which he will throw in any count or situation. He's built to be a workhorse so he has the full package. I do think his mechanics, while relatively smooth, could use a bit of work o lock in his arm slot.
• Bryce Jarvis (Arizona Diamondbacks – 18th overall) – Jarvis was really moving up on my draft list, and may have moved faster on my charts than on those of other analysts. Just a couple seasons ago, he was fairly non-descript, with a nice, even promising, four pitch mix, but lacking the power arm to draw a lot of attention. He has a great change-up, and his breaking pitches are coming along, but the big news is the jump in velocity on his fastball from 89-90 to 94-95 mph. I would have really liked to see more from him at Duke this spring, but I think his boost in pitching efficiency is the real deal. It's my opinion that young pitchers are strongly embracing the value of clean, efficient mechanics, and you will see more of them pursuing help in achieving that goal.
• Garrett Crochet (Chicago White Sox 11th overall) – Can lightning strike twice in the same place? In this case we are looking for that lightning on the south side of Chicago. A few years ago the White Sox took a power lefty some thought would be ticketed for the bullpen. His name was Chris Sale. He actually started off in the pen, but blossomed into one of the best starters in the game. Crochet and Sale don't look that much alike, but beyond that, the parallels are pretty amazing. He's a big kid at 6'6" and he has shown a bigger arm with a triple digit fastball and a huge slider, but he'll need an off-speed third pitch. I do have some concerns regarding injuries, including some shoulder woes, that have limited his workload at Tennessee, but if durable, he projects as a potential ace.
• C.J. Van Eyk (Toronto Blue Jays – 42nd overall) – Here's one I was a bit surprised dropped this far. A Florida State righty, Van Eyk has four decent pitches including a very appealing curve. He also has a decent change-up, always a plus, and fastball that isn't overpowering (low 90's) but features a lot of movement. I think he was probably marked down somewhat because his control has been inconsistent, but his motion/mechanics suggest his command can be smoothed out with work. Because he doesn't have the big cannon, he's unlikely to become an ace, but I think he can be a solid mid-rotation starter.

There were a lot of other pitchers worth monitoring – guys like high schooler Mick Abel (15th overall to the Phillies), Reid Detmers (10th overall to the Angels), Jared Kelley (47th overall to the White Sox), Slade Cecconi (33rd overall to the Diamondbacks) and Ball State's Kyle Nicolas (61st overall to the Marlins) who were all borderline considerations for inclusion in the top pitchers in the draft. I was already watching Cole Henry (55th overall to the Nationals), Jared Shuster (25th overall to the Braves), and Nick Bitsko (24th overall to the Rays) who are three more big arms going to excellent developmental organizations which makes them even more interesting to me.  

The Baseball Return Watch: I have tried very hard to remain optimistic. You know, 26 years ago in 1994, there was a work stoppage. The season ended in mid-stride, no post season, a hollow year (imho) from which the game has never entirely recovered. Surely both the owners and players learned a lesson? I'm beginning to wonder.

Last week at this time, MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred told us it was 100% - there would be baseball in 2020. Now, apparently, he's not so sure. I'm not going to take the side of the owners or the union. First, I am not privy to the details of communications (such as they are) between the two sides, and to be honest, from what I have seen, both sides are probably equally to blame as the ridiculous posturing continues with little or no progress in resuming play.

The Commissioner has the power to order a resumption of play. That appears to be the goal of the union. Unfortunately, it's not for the "good of the game" but rather to open the door for legal action against the league. Not surprisingly, Manfred has resisted ordering the resumption of play without a guarantee there would be no legal action. The union has so far refused.

And, the clock is ticking. If it doesn't happen very soon, time will run out. So, we continue the game of chicken. Neither side willing to compromise. Both sides speeding toward a head-on collision that would result in major injury to the game. Who is going to flinch?

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• The extended time off appears to have helped Houston ace Justin Verlander who has been recovering from minor groin surgery. He recently completed a bullpen session throwing off a mound, and reported no ill effects. There has been no official word, but there is a good chance he will be ready when the bell rings.
• About a week ago the Cardinals held informal workouts at Busch Stadium, and reports are newcomer Kwang-Hyun Kim looked very sharp. The lefty features a deceptive motion and an assortment of quality breaking pitches which suggests he could be effective right away when the season gets under way.
• Beyond the routine bangs and bruises, we have to wonder how players will more serious health concerns will approach a return to play. For example, the Indians' Carlos Carrasco was diagnosed with leukemia last year, and any lingering threat related to the pandemic could put players like him at an increased risk.
• If the anticipated compressed schedule comes about, teams will likely be scrambling to find a sixth starting pitcher. The best bet for the Cubs might be swingman Alec Mills. He's probably only a viable option in very deep mixed or NL-only leagues, but even mediocre pitching could be at a premium.

Endgame Odyssey:

The delayed (hopefully only delayed) season has made bullpen assessment all the more challenging.  If you have questions about relief pitchers or likely deployment in a team's bullpen, certainly feel free to ask, but sadly there is little to report other than injury status until workouts/play resume.