This article is part of our MLB Barometer series.
We're almost there! It's been nearly nine months since the last meaningful MLB game was played, but the next one is finally mere days away. While we've had yet another coronavirus-dominated week of news, every indication continues to be that the league will charge through the constant barrage of positive tests and carry on with the season.
To be fair, much of the virus-related news this week was of the encouraging variety, as players around the league started trickling into camp after testing positive during intake testing. Trying to figure out just how affected each of those players will be heading into the regular season is perhaps the most difficult task facing fantasy players at the moment. Ordinarily, drafting players who aren't expected to miss much more than a week isn't a particularly uncomfortable idea, but a lost week this year could cost a player as much as 10 percent of his season.
These difficult decisions impact not only those yet to draft their leagues but also those who are looking to set their lineups for the first week of the season. Even for players who have revealed that their delayed arrivals were due to positive coronavirus tests, their statuses remain somewhat unclear, as we're relying on little more than their own words regarding how well they were able to stay in shape while away from the team and how carefully they'll need to be managed early in the season. While that first-person view is certainly useful, players aren't exactly
We're almost there! It's been nearly nine months since the last meaningful MLB game was played, but the next one is finally mere days away. While we've had yet another coronavirus-dominated week of news, every indication continues to be that the league will charge through the constant barrage of positive tests and carry on with the season.
To be fair, much of the virus-related news this week was of the encouraging variety, as players around the league started trickling into camp after testing positive during intake testing. Trying to figure out just how affected each of those players will be heading into the regular season is perhaps the most difficult task facing fantasy players at the moment. Ordinarily, drafting players who aren't expected to miss much more than a week isn't a particularly uncomfortable idea, but a lost week this year could cost a player as much as 10 percent of his season.
These difficult decisions impact not only those yet to draft their leagues but also those who are looking to set their lineups for the first week of the season. Even for players who have revealed that their delayed arrivals were due to positive coronavirus tests, their statuses remain somewhat unclear, as we're relying on little more than their own words regarding how well they were able to stay in shape while away from the team and how carefully they'll need to be managed early in the season. While that first-person view is certainly useful, players aren't exactly famous for accurate assessments of their own health. The situation is further exacerbated by a relative lack of access for beat writers, limiting the flow of information to fans.
All that said, it's hard to understate just how exciting it is to be getting back into the familiar rhythm of a baseball season, bringing some much-needed normalcy to this incredibly abnormal time. Every game will be a joy and a relief to watch, whether or not my fantasy lineups implode. This week's Barometer is full of players who now look like they'll be playing in those games after having rather uncertain statuses this time last week, as well as a handful whose availability remains up in the air.
RISERS
Tyler Glasnow, SP, Rays: In a fitting sign of the times, Glasnow featured in this column as a faller last week only to lead off the risers this time around. His stock was low last week as he had yet to be seen at camp, seemingly leaving him little time to get up to a starter's workload by Opening Day, especially given that his past injury issues could make the Rays treat him very cautiously. Perhaps that pessimism was overblown, however, as Glasnow arrived at camp Tuesday and threw 49 pitches in a simulated game that day. While that may not be quite enough to have him ready to push 100 pitches in his first start, it's not far off and seems to be in line with where many other starters around the league are at this point. The righty revealed that his absence was indeed due to a positive COVID-19 test, but that he'd never experienced much more than mild cold symptoms, so he was able to remain in shape while quarantined. While he might face some moderate workload restrictions in his first start or two, he's hardly the only starter for whom that will be true, so his draft stock should rise up to where it was before players started reporting to camp.
Freddie Freeman, 1B, Braves: Unlike with the vast majority of players, for whom learning that their absences are indeed coronavirus-related rather than merely "undisclosed" has been about as much information as we can expect, the details of Freeman's absence were very public. Indications from both his wife, Chelsea, and his manager, Brian Snitker, were that his battle with COVID-19 was a fairly serious one. Thankfully, he's now healthy and has been at camp since Friday. He hasn't been ruled out for Opening Day, though he won't have much time to get up to full speed, so a reduced workload in the first week of the season wouldn't be at all surprising. Still, his stock should rise to near where it was back in the spring, as it now seems as though he'll be available for at worst the vast majority of the season, something that certainly couldn't have been said with confidence a week ago.
Josh James, SP, Astros: James had a bit of sleeper buzz back before spring training got shot down, though his stock was down a week ago as he'd yet to report to camp due to some unspecified "family matter." As it turns out, he was away due to the birth of his second child. He arrived at camp Monday saying that he'd already built up to 75-80 pitches while away from the team. He threw 64 in an intrasquad game Thursday, indicating that he shouldn't be far from a full workload by the time of his first start. It wasn't guaranteed that he'd be in the rotation back in the original draft season, but with Austin Pruitt battling elbow inflammation and Jose Urquidy absent for undisclosed reasons, his spot looks quite safe to start the year. James posted an unimpressive 4.70 ERA in 61.1 innings last year, pitching almost exclusively as a reliever, but that number came with a 3.98 FIP, a 3.77 xFIP and a 3.33 SIERA. The ERA estimators seemingly indicate that the righty's incredible 37.6 percent strikeout rate should have outweighed his poor 13.2 percent walk rate. Even if he can't trim his ERA this season, his elite strikeout rate at least gives him a decent floor.
Mallex Smith, OF, Mariners: Like the players listed above, Smith was difficult to draft this time last week, as he'd yet to be seen at camp. He arrived last Monday, however, and every indication seems to be that he'll be ready to play on Opening Day. The Mariners never specified why his arrival was delayed, but he was evidently able to stay in shape while away from the team, as he's been a full participant in intrasquad action. Smith is a divisive player in the fantasy world, as it's quite clear that he can provide much-needed speed after leading the league in steals with 46 last season, but it's not clear that he can do much else, as his slash line fell from .296/.367/.406 in 2018 to .227/.300/.335 in 2019. Stolen bases are more directly under a player's control than his batting average is, though, so it's a stat worth having some faith in this year given the shortened schedule, when random variance is sure to be higher than ever. With no immediate threats to his playing time and no more worries about his availability, Smith is back to being a decent draft choice.
Ryan Pressly, RP, Astros: Pressly was already one of the rare non-closing relievers who should generate fantasy interest due to his elite numbers over the past two seasons, especially in a year where the relative workloads of relievers compared to starters should be noticeably higher with many starters needing their innings carefully managed earlier in the year. The news that closer Roberto Osuna is behind his teammates and may not be ready for Opening Day should see Pressly's stock rise, however, as even if Osuna does wind up making the Opening Day roster, there's a good chance his first few outings are in a lower-leverage role. Assuming Pressly has recovered from his blister by then, he could grab a small handful of saves before retreating to a setup role. There's been no indication that the Astros have any intention to switch up their closer long-term, but it's worth noting that Pressly outperformed Osuna in nearly every relevant metric last season, beating him in ERA (2.32 to 2.63), FIP (2.66 to 3.21), strikeout rate (34.1 percent to 28.8 percent) and groundball rate (50.8 percent to 38.8 percent).
FALLERS
Yasiel Puig, OF, Free Agent: Those who took a chance on Puig despite his lack of a team appeared to be getting rewarded Tuesday when it was reported that he'd signed a deal with the Braves. Those who drafted him in the middle of last week were in for a rough surprise Friday, however, as it was revealed both that he'd tested positive for COVID-19 and that his deal with the Braves had never actually been finalized and had since been called off. The team evidently thought that the amount of games he'd be able to give them after clearing league protocols and working his way back to game shape, a process which could take some time given that he hasn't been on a baseball field even in a practice capacity in nearly 10 months, wouldn't be enough to justify giving him a contract. While it's certainly possible that other teams feel differently, interest in him had already seemed muted, and it's not clear why the positive test would suddenly change that. It's still far too early to say that he won't play at all in 2020, but those still willing to take a chance on him in their fantasy drafts should certainly take that possibility into account.
Walker Buehler, SP, Dodgers: Reports emerged last week that Buehler was behind the rest of his teammates and would likely see his workload limited early in the season, potentially leading to a piggyback setup with Dustin May. This wouldn't be the first time the Dodgers were cautious with the young righty, who has a Tommy John surgery on his resume, as he averaged just four innings over his first three starts last year and didn't reach seven innings until his seventh start of the year. The team has a famously deep stable of pitching options and remains comfortable NL West favorites even with the shortened schedule, so the cautious approach makes plenty of sense. It's unfortunately still not clear precisely what the Dodgers' plans for Buehler will be this season, but the 60-game schedule means that each shortened start is 2.5 times as significant as it would be in a normal season. If his innings are limited in even just three starts this season, that could represent a full quarter of his appearances.
Jesus Luzardo, RP, Athletics: Luzardo will be a big-league starter one day, and he'll likely be quite a good one if his scouting reports and minor-league numbers (which include a career 2.53 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, a 29.7 percent strikeout rate and a 5.5 percent walk rate) are any indication. He won't be one to open this season, however, as a positive COVID-19 test prevented him from returning to camp until Friday and rendered him unable to build up to a starter's workload. He was a reliever in his 12-inning big-league debut last season and looked excellent, posting a 1.50 ERA, 0.67 WHIP and 16:3 K:BB. While he should be excellent on a per-inning basis again this season and should have a shot to make his first major-league start at some point this year, the uncertainty undoubtedly hurts his stock. Chris Bassitt is a perfectly capable fifth starter, posting a 3.81 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP last season, so the Athletics will have little reason to rush Luzardo, who's had his fair share of injury problems in the past.
Yordan Alvarez, DH, Astros: At this point, it feels quite safe to conclude that players who have yet to report to camp have no chance of playing on Opening Day. The Astros haven't specified why Alvarez isn't with the team, but the team's vague language sounds very similar to that used in instances where players were later revealed to have tested positive for COVID-19. With no clarity on when Alvarez will be able to join his teammates, let alone be ready for game action, it's quite difficult to assess his stock at the moment beyond saying that it's down considerably. The fact that the young slugger likely will spend the majority of his time as a designated hitter could mean he needs a shorter turnaround time than most players, but with the schedule being so short this season, it seems almost certain that he'll miss a meaningful portion. There's definitely the potential for profit here if he winds up playing in, say, 50 games, but the downside is considerable.
Austin Meadows, OF, Rays: The situation for Meadows is much the same as the situation for Alvarez, with the exception that his absence has been confirmed as due to a positive coronavirus test. Unlike Alvarez, Meadows was at least present at camp briefly, but he left following the team's first workout and later revealed that he'd tested positive for COVID-19. Manager Kevin Cash didn't rule out Meadows' availability for Opening Day, but it seems far too optimistic to suggest that he'll be ready given that he's still not back in camp. Meadows broke out in his first full big-league season last year, hitting .291/.364/.558 with 33 homers and 12 steals, but the lack of clarity regarding how many games he'll be able to play this season should drop his stock by a fair amount.
