Bernie on the Scene: Evaluating AL Rookie Pitchers

This week, I'm going to offer my analysis of several American League rookie pitchers.

Next week, I intend to round up both National and American League remaining rookie hitters and pitchers about whom readers have requested comments. That will be my last article in this particular rookie series.

Brady Singer, RHP, Royals

I remember watching Singer's first start. On July 25, he dominated the Indians. It was impressive at the time. However, the Indians turned out to be an inept offense, and it put Singer's quality performance more in perspective.

The Royals drafted Singer in the first round in 2015. He was previously drafted by the Blue Jays but chose to attend the University of Florida.

Singer has always been seen as a guy with a limited repertoire. He relies on his 91-94 mph fastball and a solid slider for his foundation. His fastball does generate ground balls due to late life and sink on the ball. He throws an occasional changeup, but the scarcity of usage has hitters sitting fastball/slider.

Because of the limited arsenal and lack of high velocity on his primary pitch, Singer would likely slot as a No. 4 starter on a better than average rotation. With the mediocre Royals starters, he may slot higher.

Singer does not have an "out" pitch to end an at-bat. He does use the slider well, but a lineup can adjust after the first look through the order. And he walks almost four hitters per nine innings.

Next Year: I think Singer is a nice target in AL only leagues, but I would hesitate to count on him in a mixed league. I want more strikeouts and a much deeper arsenal from my starters.

He's credible, but mediocre at this stage until he develops a consistent third pitch.

Justus Sheffield, LHP, Mariners

Even though Sheffield made his MLB debut with the Yankees in 2018, he retained his rookie eligibility this season.

A 2014 first-round draft pick by the Indians out of a Tennessee High School, Sheffield was traded to the Yankees in 2016 in the deal that brought Andrew Miller to Cleveland. Then the Yankees dispatched him to Seattle in the 2018 James Paxton trade.

Sheffield is on the smallish side as big league pitchers go, at 5-foot-10, 195.

Using a two-seam sinking fastball, a slider and a changeup, Sheffield's velocity has dipped by 3 miles an hour since hitting 95 consistently in 2017. That's only one concern. I'm also concerned that he labors for every out. He struck out 7.8 batters and walked 3.3 per nine innings. Neither excites me. Right-handed hitters hit .284 against him. Not good. He did better against lefties at .154, but he faced only 52 left-handed hitters compared to 175 from the right side.

Sheffield's slider is better than his fastball, but he really works hard to command both his pitches. Throwing across his body, he is athletic, but he is using every bit of energy from his smallish (in today's game) frame.

Next Year: I don't see Sheffield getting much better than meh. He's 24, and he still has time to improve his command and control. But I don't see anything about him that excites me. And that's the same position I had when I saw him in his development years with the Indians.

Randy Dobnak, RHP, Twins

Dobnak filled in on a Twins rotation that needed help. He did an admirable job, but look at the hits per inning. He's very hittable. He yielded three home runs, and while that isn't horrible, it's a concern. The bigger concern is the average of only 5.2 strikeouts per nine innings. He walked 2.5 per nine, which isn't bad.

Dobnak has a full repertoire of four-seam fastball (94 mph) two-seam fastball (92 mph) changeup and slider. He's a sinker, slider pitcher. But unlike some of those type pitchers, he does mix in a solid changeup a quarter of the time.

I don't see Dobnak winning a starting role if the Twins can fill out their rotation with free-agent signings or trades in the offseason. He is clearly a No. 5 starter, if that.

Next Year: I see Dobnak as a fill-in, late-round pitcher in fantasy. Not much more. He isn't overpowering. He isn't that deceptive. He's very hittable. And I'd rather someone else take him than me.

Triston McKenzie, RHP, Indians

The Indians took McKenzie with the 42nd overall pick in the first round of the 2015 draft. Coming out of Royal Palm Beach High School, McKenzie has always been thin enough to blow over with a high wind. He's an incredible 6-5, 165. For veteran baseball fans, he reminds me of an even thinner Oil Can Boyd (Red Sox).

McKenzie has an electric arm. His velocity dropped a bit during the season from 94 to 92 mph, but the whip in his arm is crazy quick. He also throws a wicked slider, a sharp curve and a knee-buckling changeup. He uses his fastball 50 percent of the time, with the slider as the second-most used offering. 

My worry about McKenzie is his frame. He has had back issues that cost him time. His shoulder and forearm also concern me due to the amount of stress that thin body must endure. But if he stays healthy … watch out. The guy can pitch.

Next Year: I'll take him, thank you. The Indians develop pitchers well. And they are careful. I'd ride him as long as he's healthy, but I'd plan for an injury replacement. Note that he also made two relief appearances, and he could easily be used out of the pen.

Justin Dunn, RHP, Mariners

Dunn got a taste of the big leagues in 2019, but he retained his rookie status in the sprint season.

He walked an incredible 6.1 hitters per nine innings. Yes, you read that correctly. He struck out 5.5 per nine. Last year he walked 12.2 hitters per nine in four starts.

Dunn is 25 and is 6-2, 185. He was a first-round pick of the Mariners in 2016 out of Boston College. He began his career with Seattle in the bullpen, converting to starting in 2017 and 2018. That's important. Why? I'm not sure he is ready to pitch every five days as a rotation starter.

This year he used his fastball as his base, but mixed in a curveball as his second-most used pitch. Whenever I  saw him in the past he relied more on his changeup than he did this year. It may have been a good decision, because his changeup was below average.

Next Year: He's all yours, friends. First of all, I don't like the Mariners run production. But beyond that, he hasn't shown that he can throw strikes consistently or get big league hitters out. I'll wait a year and see if he turns a corner.

Jesus Luzardo, LHP, A's

The baseball world put Luzardo in the top echelon of pitching prospect classes. I have always been a bit hesitant to crow about him. I scouted him when he pitched in spring training, and I thought he could be a solid starter. I didn't scream about him from rooftops like I have about other prospects.

Luzardo was taken by the Nationals in the third round of the 2016 draft out of Stoneman-Douglas High School in Florida. He was traded to Oakland in the Sean Doolittle deal.

Luzardo really flew through his development, and after just turning 23 in late September, his career is really on the move. Not good for the A's, as he'll hit free agency quicker than they would probably like. But when he gets close, they'll probably trade him.

Luzardo can throw 100 mph, but he didn't this season. I've seen it. I know he can do it. He hit 96 with his four-seamer and 95 with his sinker. Luzardo also throws a curve, a changeup and a slider, making him a pitcher with a very complete repertoire. His slider is a dominant pitch.

Luzardo is a very good athlete with quality stuff. He should succeed.

Next Year: I think patience is needed, as Luzardo is still really young. He may have been rushed a bit. I'd take him, but I wouldn't believe all they hype and I wouldn't build my pitching staff around him. He's a nice component for our rotations.

Dane Dunning, RHP, White Sox

Here's something I don't think you'll read anywhere else — I think Rick Renteria lost his job managing the White Sox partly because of how he handled Dane Dunning.

Dunning was returning from Tommy John surgery this season. His first starts looked fine. Then I noticed he was laboring on the mound. He needed to be paced. But no, the White Sox wanted the best possible record they could achieve for playoff seeding, and Renteria kept giving him the ball late in the season. Dunning was spent. It was a mistake to use him.

He's a good pitcher. Not a great pitcher, but solid. The Nationals drafted him in the first round in 2016 out of University High School in Gainesville, Fla. They made a huge mistake and traded him along with Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez for Adam Eaton in 2016.

Repeating a smooth delivery, Dunning throws a four-seam fastball, a two-seam sinking fastball, a changeup, a curve and a slider. This year he relied upon his sinker/slider combination most often. When he's throwing well, he induces ground balls with that late life and sink.

Next Year: If the new White Sox manager uses Dunning properly, he will deliver. He has to build up his arm strength in a normal spring training. That said, he's worthy of a draft pick as a mid-rotation to back-of-the-rotation starter. With that White Sox offense, he should be able to stay in games. I'll take my chances late in drafts.

Next week: Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal and pitchers I didn't highlight this week.

Heading Home

I didn't realize the amount of distrust and almost hatred baseball fans have for the Astros. It may be just me, but it seems America (I don't know about Canada) pulled for the Rays with vigor. I get it.

• Dusty Baker did a great job handling Zack Greinke in particular, and managing in general.

Kevin Cash is a terrific manager. Dave Roberts has had another postseason of hiccups and bad decisions. With all the Dodgers talent, he should be able to steer the ship properly. For me, that isn't the case.

• The Braves can hit. Freeman, Mazara and of course, Acuna Jr. are as dangerous as any three guys in baseball IMO.

• In case you didn't know by now, I'm a huge Max Fried fan.

• Having a bad back myself, I feel badly for Clayton Kershaw. We are starting to hear the comparisons to Sandy Koufax fade away. Koufax won big games. Kershaw has struggled in those same type contests. A barking back never helps.

Here's my back joke for now: Guy 1: "I hear you have a weak back. When did you get it?"

Guy 2: "Oh, about a week back." Now that wasn't so bad. Stop booing. Smile. Thank you.

• Have a great week and stay healthy. And thank your mail carrier. Thank everyone in your life who helps you. We all need uplifting now.

And remember — I appreciate you. Each and every one of you.

• Follow me on Twitter @BerniePleskoff. Please. And thank you for reading my articles at Forbes.com.