Rounding Third: Alternate Site Players

Andrew Vaughn

Last year the White Sox signed Edwin Encarnacion to fill their DH slot, and alas it didn't go well. He hit .157/.250/.377, and saw his K% jump from 21.2 to 30.0. The White Sox declined their option on him, and unfortunately at age 38 he might not get another shot. While they did add Adam Eaton to play a corner outfield spot, they're unlikely to pay up for another veteran DH type of hitter. Enter first base prospect Andrew Vaughn, their first-round pick in the 2019, generally considered the best pure college hitter in his draft. In December, White Sox GM Rick Hahn suggested that Vaughn is a viable option for the DH role this season.

How quickly will Vaughn take the job? He has only appeared in 55 professional games, posting a .278/.384/.449 line with six homers and 17 doubles over three levels, finishing 2019 in High-A ball. Last season he stayed at the alternate training camp site for the White Sox, getting some work at third base in July while Yoan Moncada was recovering from COVID-19, but didn't see any game action at all, not including 23 spring training at-bats. My first pass at Vaughn was modest, giving him 96 games. That allows for some development time in the minors, the free agent service time to pass and perhaps even the unofficial Super 2 arbitration date estimate as well.

But perhaps that is too modest of an estimate? Consider that the White Sox are contenders - a notion that was solidified when they traded for Lance Lynn and signed Liam Hendriks. If Vaughn begins the season in the minors, they'll have both Adam Eaton and Leury Garcia in the starting lineup. Moreover, there's a chance that Nick Madrigal won't be ready for the start of the season, forcing Garcia to start there rather than a corner outfield spot. Other in-house options for more at-bats if Vaughn is down include Adam Engel, Danny Mendick, Zack Collins, and Yermin Mercedes. While there's some intrigue with each of those players, especially Collins and Mercedes (with apologies to the Leury Garcia enthusiasts there), it probably behoves the White Sox to get Vaughn up as quickly as he's ready. 

Luckily for Vaughn, the White Sox have a history of promoting their hitting prospects when their ready ... but that comes with an asterisk. Both Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert started with the big club in the last two seasons, but only after signing long-term deals that bought out their respective arbitration seasons, and gave the team options for their first two free agent seasons. Moreover, both destroyed Triple-A pitching upon their arrival at the level, and did not get September callups when it's pretty clear that they might benefit from one.

It's difficult to tell if Vaughn is ready, other than by judging the White Sox by their words and actions. Surely some development occurred at the alternate training camp site, and judging by the talk from Hahn and the writers covering the team, he was impressive. But we don't have the usual paper trail that we have from actual minor league action. Some teams, notably the Red Sox, made footage from their camps available, but in many other cases we're reliant on word-of-mouth and prospect pedigree. It adds another layer of uncertainty to an already uncertain craft. 

Vaughn's current ADP in the NFBC is 305.88 (min 180/ max 421); that ADP has technically declined since 1/1 330.94), but that's because he went undrafted in a few leagues that weren't 15-team formats. I can see how he's getting taken more frequently/earlier in a draft-and-hold format, as the cost for stashing a player there isn't as high, and you can't just wait until he gets promoted. But increasingly I'm thinking you won't have to wait all that long with him. Thus even in a 12-team league you shouldn't wait until the last round to grab him, let alone wait to try to pick him up on waivers. The bottom spots on your roster should be fluid anyhow as you look for "home run" plays rather than singles - singles are plentiful in the endgame and on the waiver wire. I'll be upgrading Vaughn's playing time projection soon - likely somewhere in the range of 120-130 games.

Other Alternate Training Site Players

Vaughn is just one example of players who spent the year at the alternate training site of their team that will probably get a good run of playing time this year. This list won't be exhaustive, but here are a few more big ones that will present difficulties in estimating playing time and performance. As you read through these players, take a moment to review James Anderson's annual awesome Prospect Tiers article.

Jarred Kelenic (ADP: 216) - Kelenic made waves in the summer training camp during the lead-up to the 2020 sprint season, hitting tape-measure bombs left and right. Despite seemingly being ready for his major league debut, the Mariners made it clear that they would not give him the call. There's still some concern that the M's will manipulate his service time again to begin 2021, at least for the first three weeks or so for the season, but I'm convinced that he's ready. 

Alex Kirilloff (268) - Kirilloff made his debut in the playoffs, so technically he doesn't qualify for this list, but he didn't have any regular season at-bats and that still might throw people off his scent. It shouldn't. There's some question about his defense in the outfield, and he won't steal bases for you, but he can pound and he doesn't strike outcry frequently. I look for Kiriloff's ADP to continue climbing by the time March rolls around.

Julio Rodriguez (615) - Rodriguez is an elite prospect, but he will be starting the year in the minors. He lost so much time with a wrist injury last year and a quadriceps injury in Winter Ball. It's possible that he won't play in the majors at all in 2021. But I will say this - he strikes me as the type of prospect that could advance really quickly and beat expectations for his arrival. He's a stash in draft-and-hold leagues, but a "watchlist" type of guy in a standard redraft league with free agent pickups.

Adley Rutschman (515) - Watch to see where Rutschman begins in 2021. If he's in Double-A, you may see him in the majors sooner rather than later. GM Mike Elias said at the start of summer training camp last season that they'd consider promoting him for the playoffs if that were an issue. It wasn't an issue, so we didn't see him. But the first overall pick in 2019 could come quick.

Trevor Larnach (702) - Larnach is the discount version of Kiriloff. The departure of Eddie Rosario hastens the likelihood that we see both players this season with the big league club. Larnach won't run, but he's got a pure hit-tool that could be dangerous if he gains just a little bit more power.

Opt-Outs

There's another class of players that didn't throw a pitch or take an at-bat last season - those that opted out of the season. Some of those players may not come back, but at least a handful will be back and will be expected to fill significant roles. The most notable of these are David Price (176), Marcus Stroman (224) and Buster Posey (259). How do you treat them? They have established levels of performance, but they've also taken a year off. In a way, it's as if they're coming back from a season-ending injury, but without the doubt of whether they've fully recovered. And indeed, all three players dealt with various injuries in 2019. The year away might actually be good for them! I'm about on par with Price in terms of ranking, I'm ahead of the pack on Stroman (which is strange, because I'm never ahead of the pack on him), and I'm pretty far behind on Posey. The latter might be a function of his playing time projection, which I need to upgrade a little after having downgraded Joey Bart.

Coming Up Next

After a slow offseason, last week was a big week for MLB player moves. I'll take a look at the fallout from the Nolan Arenado trade, Trevor Bauer and Marcell Ozuna signings, and the last two shortstop vacancies getting filled.