This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous: 1-2, -1.15 RWBucks
Overall: 83-70-1, +1.57
Royals vs. Cardinals, 2:10 p.m. EDT
Kris Bubic vs. J.A. Happ
A very rare hitter prop as we get a great matchup for Salvador Perez. When it comes to hitter props, I lean toward total bases and I like taking a right-handed batter against a weak left-handed pitcher as the historical splits give us a huge edge. Also, if there is strong batter vs. pitcher data that will help, and we get that here.
Perez is 11-for-26 in his career against Happ with six extra base hits, including five home runs. Even though Happ as pitched OK in his first two National League starts, his season numbers of 6.34 ERA and 1.51 WHIP still make him a pitcher not to back.
BET: Salvador Perez over 1.5 total bases (-125) for 1 RWBuck
Athletics at Rangers 2:30 p.m. EDT
Oakland has been the No. 1 team in wOBA in August and the Rangers are last. The A's are 19-11 in their last 30 games, while the Rangers are 7-23, including 2-8 in their last 10. Oakland has scored at least four runs in their last nine games, averaging more than seven runs per game. Allard has faced the A's three times this year and allowed three, four and four earned runs while going six innings in each start.
BET: A's over 2.5 runs in first 5 innings (-110 DK) for 1 RWBuck
Astros at Angels, 4:07 p.m. EDT
Lance McCullers vs. Reid Detmers
This one is similar to the A's bet in that I am picking on a bad pitcher with a good offense. The Astros have been a middle-of-the-pack offense in August, but Detmers has been hit pretty hard early and often in his first two starts. I am leaning on the Astros veteran lineup that doesn't strikeout and draws a lot of walks to get at least three runs in the first five innings. The Astros lead the season series 8-3 and have scored less than four runs in just one of those games.
BET: Astros over 2.5 runs in first 5 innings (-115 DK) for 1 RWBuck
Dodgers at Mets, 7:08 p.m. EDT
Max Scherzer vs. Carlos Carrasco
Two teams headed in the opposite directions, as the Dodgers are 7-3 in their last 10 and the Mets are 4-6. The Mets have been a strong play at home all season, especially when in the underdog role, but with Carrasco in just his third start back from the injured list I can not endorse them. Scherzer is in a great spot as the ballpark is familiar to him and favors pitchers. His only Achilles heel is giving up the long ball and the Mets have been a bottom-5 offense in August.
I can see the Dodgers lineup getting to Carrasco probably the second time around the order and have a lead after five innings.
BET: Dodgers -0.5 first 5 innings (-110) for 1 RWBuck
