MLB Playoffs Betting Guide: 2026 World Series Picks and Pennant Bets
We're now in year five of the new, 12-team playoff format introduced by MLB prior to the 2022 season. Early returns suggested the new format would bring chaos, with two six seeds and a five seed winning three of the first four pennants. The last two seasons have reversed that trend, as three of the last four pennants have been won by the top seed in their respective league — and the only exception to that rule was last year's Dodgers, a preseason favorite who slipped to the third seed after a slightly disappointing regular season only to right the ship in October and take home a second consecutive title.
Will this year's postseason see another pair of favorites meet in the World Series, or could we see a spiritual successor to the Rangers vs. Diamondbacks series from 2023? Are the Dodgers a good bet to become the first team to three-peat since the 1998-2000 Yankees, or are there better bets available with far longer odds?
This article will attempt to answer those questions by comparing the bookmakers' odds to the projections available at FanGraphs. I'll select my favorites from among the teams highlighted by the projections as the best potential bets, looking for both the most attractive favorites as well as the best underdogs.
MLB Playoff Bracket
Wild Card Round
- Yankees (4) vs. Red Sox (5)
- Astros (3) vs. White Sox (6)
- Padres (4) vs. Cubs (5)
- Braves (3) vs. Phillies (6)
AL Wild Card Byes
- Rays (1)
- Guardians (2)
NL Wild Card Byes
- Brewers (1)
- Dodgers (2)
AL Division Series
- Yankees/Red Sox at Rays
- Astros/White Sox at Guardians
NL Division Series
- Padres/Cubs at Brewers
- Braves/Phillies at Dodgers
MLB Playoff Odds
In this article, I'll compare the best available NL pennant, AL pennant, and World Series odds with the projections available at FanGraphs. (Odds listed below are accurate as of writing, but you can click the links above to find out the current best odds.) Bets that the projections favor are highlighted in bold.
| Team | Best Pen Odds | Implied Prob | FG Pennant% | Best WS Odds | Implied Prob | FG WS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | +130 | 43.5% | 49.1% | +230 | 30.3% | 36.9% |
| Brewers | +300 | 25.0% | 19.8% | +600 | 14.3% | 11.3% |
| Rays | +260 | 27.8% | 24.3% | +800 | 11.1% | 8.6% |
| Guardians | +360 | 21.7% | 26.8% | +1200 | 7.7% | 9.2% |
| Yankees | +370 | 21.3% | 16.9% | +1200 | 7.7% | 6.9% |
| Braves | +925 | 9.8% | 7.2% | +1750 | 5.4% | 3.7% |
| Cubs | +1000 | 9.1% | 8.5% | +1900 | 5.0% | 4.7% |
| Red Sox | +750 | 11.8% | 14.5% | +2000 | 4.8% | 5.5% |
| Phillies | +1050 | 8.7% | 10.2% | +2000 | 4.8% | 6.0% |
| Padres | +1000 | 9.1% | 5.3% | +2200 | 4.3% | 2.4% |
| Astros | +850 | 10.5% | 11.7% | +2500 | 3.8% | 3.5% |
| White Sox | +1200 | 7.7% | 5.9% | +4000 | 2.4% | 1.3% |
MLB Playoff Picks
Los Angeles Dodgers: +130 to win NL (BetMGM), +230 to win World Series (FanDuel)
It would be inappropriate to start this discussion anywhere other than with the Dodgers. They have easily the shortest odds according to the sportsbooks, but the projections think those short odds actually underrate their chances. The two-time defending champions finished with the second-best record in baseball, getting back to the 100-win mark for the fifth time in the last seven full seasons, and they bring a veteran roster packed with as much postseason and World Series experience as you could ask for.
This is a roster with almost no weaknesses. The lineup finished second in wRC+ (111), the rotation finished second in ERA (3.43) and the bullpen finished ninth (3.74). The Dodgers also finished ninth in DRS (40), so they aren't likely to give away many free runs on defense, either.
The team's only real weakness is on the basepaths, where they ranked third-last in the league with just 72 steals, but you don't need to manufacture runs via small-ball when you rank second in the league in slugging percentage (.424). The Dodgers have four 20-homer bats (Shohei Ohtani, Max Muncy, Mookie Betts and Andy Pages), plus three more who finished in the high teens but were perennial 20-homer threats prior to this season (Kyle Tucker, Freddie Freeman and Teoscar Hernandez). Tucker finished with just 17, but he hit six of those in September alongside a 140 wRC+, and if he maintains that strong form after a rough first five months on the West Coast, the Dodgers' already long lineup will get even longer.
The outlook is almost universally positive on the pitching side as well. 14 different Dodgers made at least one start this season, but the rotation is in excellent shape at the moment, with reliable ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto now joined by deadline acquisition Tarik Skubal and a healthy Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow instead of the less-dominant Roki Sasaki, Emmet Sheehan and Justin Wrobleski, all of whom made at least 22 starts. The Dodgers also got five scoreless innings out of Edwin Diaz to end the season after he spent most of the year battling injuries, though they might not need him in anything more than a setup role considering Tanner Scott's dominant season in his absence (2.69 ERA, 0.99 WHIP).
Cleveland Guardians: +360 to win AL (DraftKings), +1200 to win World Series (DraftKings)
After the Dodgers, the Guardians stand out as having the biggest mismatch between the sportsbooks' odds and FanGraphs' projections. This may be a reflection of the lopsided nature of the American League bracket. The Guardians aren't a particularly strong team — their 85 wins rank merely 11th in the league, trailing the 86-win Diamondbacks, who will be watching the playoffs from a couch — but the other members of their quarter of the bracket are even worse.
Cleveland will host the 84-win White Sox or 81-win Astros in the ALDS, while the number one seed in the AL, the Rays, will be stuck facing the 87-win Red Sox or 93-win Yankees. Having the easiest path to the championship series helps the Guardians perhaps more than the sportsbooks have accounted for, and once they get there, anything can happen across a pair of seven-game series.
That's not to say that picking Cleveland will be a particularly comfortable bet, however, as this roster simply isn't all that good, particularly on the offensive side of things. The Guardians rank 21st in baseball by wRC+ (97), 27th in slugging (.380) and 27th in home runs (162). They do at least put their bat on the ball, ranking fifth in MLB with a 20.8 percent strikeout rate, and they're active on the basepaths, ranking seventh in steals. They can manufacture runs, and they'll have to, as there's a real lack of star power in this lineup. Jose Ramirez's down season (92 wRC+) means rookie Chase DeLauter was the only Cleveland hitter to finish with a wRC+ north of 115.
The Guardians' path to a first World Series since 1948 involves a small-ball offense outscoring their opponents in low-scoring games, and they do at least have the pitching staff to do that. Gavin Williams (3.76 ERA, 2.95 SIERA), Parker Messick (2.56 ERA, 3.51 SIERA) and Foster Griffin (3.60 ERA, 3.88 SIERA) make for a competitive front three in the rotation, and a bullpen which ranks sixth in ERA (3.54) will help fill in the gaps. The Guardians should feel as comfortable as anyone when it comes to holding late-inning leads, as closer Cade Smith (1.95 ERA, 2.26 SIERA) and setup men Erik Sabrowski (2.61 ERA, 3.27 SIERA) and Hunter Gaddis (2.98 ERA, 3.89) make for an excellent high-leverage trio. Whether or not the lineup can give this bullpen enough late-inning leads will determine just how far the Guardians can go this October.
World Series Underdog Picks
While I typically only recommend teams whose FanGraphs playoff odds suggest they're underrated by the sportsbooks, I'll make an exception here and recommend a team which falls only slightly on the wrong side of the line. First, though, a quick word on why I'm not backing the three other teams liked by the projections:
Red Sox: I'm simply too scared of their unfairly challenging corner of the bracket. They'll have to get past two teams who finished in the top five in wins just to reach the ALCS. If and when they do get past those first two hurdles, I'd consider a bet on them, but it's tough to recommend the team with the hardest path to a title in the entire tournament.
Phillies: For most of the season, you could have made the case that this roster was ideally suited for the postseason, where a team's first three starters and its best high-leverage relievers could handle a higher share of the innings. With Cristopher Sanchez (2.91 ERA, 2.92 SIERA), Zack Wheeler (3.00 ERA, 3.17 SIERA) and Jesus Luzardo (2.86 ERA, 3.06 SIERA) handling the bulk of the innings and Jhoan Duran (1.82 ERA, 1.67 SIERA) there to finish things off, the Phillies might have been able to win enough 1-0 and 2-1 games to put a run together.
Now that Luzardo has been limited to a short-inning role following a late-season shoulder injury, the Phillies will have to ask much more of their lineup, which limped to a 92 wRC+ this season, the third-worst in the league. Barring a Herculean effort from Bryce Harper or Kyle Schwarber, the only Phillies regulars with a wRC+ above 102, this team simply won't score enough to put a run together.
Astros: Only recommended for a pennant bet by the odds and not recommended for a bet to win the entire thing, but I see very little reason to back this Astros team. After finishing 81-81, they have the worst record for any playoff team in a full-length MLB season. They can hit, ranking first in homers (226) and fourth in wRC+ (105), but their starters ranked 27th in ERA (4.81) and their relievers ranked 17th (4.08). There's a better offense-first underdog to back, which is...
Chicago Cubs: +1000 to win NL (BetMGM), +1900 to win World Series (FanDuel)
The first point in the Cubs' favor is that there's a chance they won't have to play the Dodgers, as they're on the other side of the National League bracket and could get lucky if the Dodgers are upset in the NLDS. As for the team itself, the Cubs have a lopsided roster, but their lineup could be good enough to carry a mediocre pitching staff across the finish line.
The Cubs led the league in wRC+ (114), featuring a balanced offense which finished first in slugging (.428) and second in on-base percentage (.339). They can hit the ball over the fence, ranking third in homers (220), but they don't strike out too often, ranking seventh in strikeout rate (21.1%). They're also good on the basepaths, tying for 10th with 114 steals. 41 of those steals were recorded by Pete Crow-Armstrong, who also hit 45 homers and finished with 10.6 fWAR. The isn't a lineup that's all about its star player, however, as 10 of the team's top 12 hitters by plate appearances finished with a wRC+ of 100 or better.
The lineup will have to carry the load for the Cubs, but unlike the Phillies and Astros, who are truly one-dimensional teams, the Cubs can at least boast an average pitching staff. Their starters finished a slightly below average 18th in ERA (4.27), but that's with Kevin Gausman and Clay Holmes only joining the team at the trade deadline. Matthew Boyd-Shota Imanaga-Gausman-Holmes isn't a particularly intimidating playoff rotation, but it's not an embarassing one. Meanwhile, the bullpen checked in slightly above-average at 13th with an ERA of 3.90, and the unit looks much more respectable with a healthy Daniel Palencia, who finished the year with eight straight scoreless appearances.
