Closer Carousel: Who Earned Saves This Weekend?

Welcome to a new series here at RotoWire. Every Monday and Friday, I'll take a look back at the previous series and wrap up everything you need to know about the rapidly changing closer market.

These articles will contain five parts:

Who Earned Saves This Week/Weekend? A division-by-division look at who picked up saves in the previous series, as well as "true" blown saves and a few quick notes.

Closers I'm Worried About: A breakdown of a handful of closers whose jobs seem the most tenuous, as well as a look at the setup men who could be about to step up.

Bullpen Deep Dive: A closer look at a bullpen where everything is even more up in the air than usual, focusing on key stats and usage trends.

Injury Round-Up: A quick look at any currently injured closers and their progress toward a return to action.

Closer Grid: A snapshot of the RotoWire Closer Grid, which can also be found here.

Who Earned Saves This Weekend?

*A pitcher can earn a blown save if he enters in what is technically a save situation prior to the ninth inning and blows the lead. For fantasy purposes, we don't really care about blown saves where a reliever was clearly being used as a setup man and coughed up the lead. What matters to us is when a reliever was genuinely being given a chance to save the game but blew it. Therefore, for the purposes of this article, I'm only going to report blown saves of that variety. 

Closers I'm Worried About

Edwin Diaz, Dodgers: The good news for Diaz is that his lone appearance over the weekend saw him pitch a scoreless ninth inning to record a save against the Brewers on Friday. The bad news is that his performance was far from convincing, as he walked two batters and hit another before getting out of the jam.

Diaz has now made eight appearances since returning from a three-month absence due to elbow surgery, and the results are quite worrying. He's allowed eight runs on 12 hits in 6.2 innings of work, with a 23.7 percent strikeout rate that's far too low for a closer and a 13.2 percent walk rate that's far too high. Pitch-level data isn't any more encouraging, as his 105 Stuff+ since his return is down considerably from his 114 Stuff+ last season. His fastball velocity has at least crept back up to 96.7 mph since the surgery after averaging 95.7 mph prior to the procedure, but that would still be the lowest mark of his career.

Analysis of the Dodgers' roster usually includes some variant of the phrase "they can afford to prioritize October," implying that they can afford to let Diaz attempt to pitch his way through his struggles in an effort to maximize his readiness for the postseason, even if that results in a few regular-season losses. While there's still some truth to that, as the Dodgers will almost certainly make the playoffs, they would be stuck as the third seed if the season ended today. If they want to win a first-round bye, they'll need every regular-season win they can get, which might mean demoting Diaz from the closer role until he figures things out.

Worry-o-meter: 3 out of 5

Setup man to stash: Tanner Scott. He filled in admirably in Diaz's absence, picking up 16 saves, and has very much been the closer the Dodgers thought they were signing when they gave him a four-year, $72 million deal prior to last season, only for him to fall flat in his first season with the club. His stat line this year is as closerlike as it gets: a 2.20 ERA and 0.92 WHIP backed by a 33.0 percent strikeout rate and 5.9 percent walk rate. His ratios and strikeouts are good enough to make him worth rostering in most fantasy leagues even if he never gets another save this season, so the chance that he could step back into the closer role if the Dodgers lose faith in Diaz makes him a priority pickup wherever he's landed back on the waiver wire. 

Grant Taylor, White Sox: Perhaps Taylor is an unfair inclusion here, as the White Sox have never officially named him their closer and have never really used him as a traditional closer at any point this year. But he is the top name on the team's closer depth chart, so anyone who expected him to earn a larger share of the saves after Seranthony Dominguez first pitched his way out of the ninth inning and then moved to Seattle at the deadline has to be disappointed in Taylor's recent usage.

The White Sox picked up two saves over the weekend against the Tigers, but Taylor didn't get either of them. He entered Friday's game with one out in the seventh inning and a three-run lead and got the next five outs, with Bryan Hudson pitching a clean ninth inning in what was no longer a save situation after the White Sox stretched the lead to four. On Saturday, Taylor faced the top of the order in the eighth inning with a one-run lead before Hudson got the save in the ninth. With Taylor and Hudson both unavailable Sunday after pitching on back-to-back days, it fell to Sean Newcomb to pick up a rare seven-out save.

Taylor remains a pitcher with a decent amount of fantasy value, as his 2.11 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 31.8 percent strikeout rate will help your team even if he doesn't pick up any more saves. Still, it seemed logical that Dominguez's fall-off combined with the White Sox's sudden competitiveness would lead to Taylor finding himself in the ninth inning more often. That did look to be the case for a time, as Taylor recorded four of the team's six saves from July 4 through August 8, but he now has none of the last three and continues to find himself in high-leverage situations in the seventh and eighth innings. It's clear by now that we're looking at a high-leverage relief ace, not a true closer, and the White Sox don't seem to have any interest in changing that.

Worry-o-meter: 2 out of 5

Setup man to stash: If you're looking for someone to claim the closer job outright, there's no one here to stash, as it seems clear by now that the White Sox don't feel they need a true closer. But if you're in a deep enough league where anyone with a meaningful share of a team's closer committee is with rostering, expect both Bryan Hudson and Sean Newcomb to hold some value down the stretch. Since June 6, Taylor has six saves while Hudson and Newcomb each have three, and a similar split seems likely the rest of the way. Neither pitcher has a closer's strikeout rate (23.2 percent for Newcomb, 22.8 percent for Hudson), but they've both been effective, with Newcomb's ERA sitting at 2.51 and Hudson's sitting at 3.14. 

Bullpen Deep Dive

Baltimore Orioles

*gmLI is the average Leverage Index when a pitcher enters the game. 1.0 is average; closers typically sit north of 1.50.

**Since we're only interested in how the Orioles are using their relievers, this figure reflects only Sanders' six appearances with Baltimore. The rest of his stat line here includes his nine outings for the Pirates as well. 

The Orioles have been spreading the saves around in the absence(s) of Ryan Helsley, who still has a long road ahead of him as he works his way back from the elbow issues which have kept him out for most of the season. The team's last two saves went to an unexpected source: Cam Sanders. Does that mean he's worth a pickup?

Not necessarily, as both his saves came in unusual circumstances. On Friday, he recorded just one out to pick up the save after Yennier Cano opened the ninth with a four-run lead but gave up three runs. Andrew Kittredge had already pitched the seventh inning, while Rico Garcia pitched the eighth. Sanders then picked up another save Saturday, but that came in the 10th inning after Kittredge blew the save in the ninth. Garcia again pitched the eighth.

That suggests that Sanders remains below Cano, Kittredge and Garcia on the leverage ladder, and the stats shown above suggest that should remain the case. He's also a 29-year-old with just 21 major-league appearances under his belt, while the other three names listed above are all far more experienced, with Garcia sitting second-last with 116 MLB games.

The most fearsome reliever in the Orioles' pen still looks like it's Cano, who may not have elite strikeout stuff but who makes up for it by being almost impossible to square up, as he owns a 63.6 percent groundball rate and has allowed just one homer all year. The Orioles seem to mostly prefer him in the seventh or eighth inning, though he did get the ball in the ninth inning Friday but failed to convert the save.

A wild card to watch out for here is former closer Felix Bautista, who's nearly ready for a rehab assignment as he works his way back from shoulder surgery, a procedure he underwent last August. It looks like he'll be back before the end of the year, but the Orioles may not want to throw him right back into the ninth inning after such a long layoff. Plus, if he and Helsley return at the same time, the Orioles may simply elect to give Helsley his job back. 

Injury Round-Up

Daniel Palencia, Cubs: Palencia has been out since mid-June with a flexor strain, having previously missed time with a lat strain in April and a shoulder strain last September. While there's plenty of reason to worry about his long-term health, he seems to be on the right track, as he's made five rehab appearances already. He gave up five runs with a 3:6 K:BB over his first three rehab outings but has since thrown a pair of scoreless innings with three walks and no strikeouts. If he's cleared to return soon, he'll likely reclaim the closer job from Jacob Webb, though it's worth pointing out that the Cubs used him earlier in games after he returned from his late-season injury last year. 

Devin Williams, Mets: Williams has been out for a week with a shoulder strain, and while initial reports suggested the Mets were optimistic his absence would be brief, there's been no word on when he'll resume throwing. Given that both Williams and the Mets have had a very poor season, with the playoffs nowhere in sight, there's little incentive to rush him back and risk further injury. With most of the Mets relievers with any meaningful amount of big-league experience being dealt away at the deadline, Kodai Senga appears to have a firm grip on the temporary closer role, grabbing the team's last three saves. 

Ryan Helsley, Orioles: As discussed above, Helsley has been battling elbow issues for most of the season, first missing all of May and half of June and then heading right back to the IL in early July. He's been throwing for nearly three weeks now, so he appears to have time to make it back before the end of the year, but the Orioles are taking things slow, so don't expect him back any time soon. The Orioles have used multiple different pitchers in the ninth inning in his absence. 

Carlos Estevez, Royals: Estevez has made just one appearance this year, hitting the IL with a bruised foot after getting hit by a comebacker in that outing and then suffering (or perhaps discovering) a rotator cuff strain in early May. He was also delayed by a setback in late June, but he does still seem to have time to get back into game action before the end of the year. He resumed throwing a month ago and threw his first bullpen session Sunday, so news about a rehab assignment could emerge soon. If he proves his health and effectiveness, he could reclaim his closer job at some point in September, as current fill-in option Steven Cruz (4.17 ERA) looks better suited for middle relief. 

Closer Grid

This article will be published every Monday and Friday this season, taking a look back at the previous series' top closer news. For more closer updates, check out the RotoWire Closer Grid, which changes daily. 

Here's how the whole thing looks as of Monday afternoon: 

*part of a committee 

Questions about any of the closers covered above or any relievers you're considering picking up off the waiver wire? Let me know in the comments below.