It is officially time for this column to put the 2026 season in the rearview mirror and focus on 2027 plans. One of the most mportant things I do each season is this accountability exercise for the 60 bold predictions I made over the offseason so I can learn from them as I plan for the next season. Insanity is doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting different results, so I use this annual exercise to hold myself publicly accountable for the advice I've given you (and applied myself) during draft season. This allows you to learn from my mistakes if you avoided the advice in draft season or decide how much of my advice you should apply to your 2027 draft plans.
I will set expectations up front: it was a rough year for pitching predictions. Pitchers have a higher injury risk as a group, which makes predicting their performance more challenging. I gave myself 17 failing grades of the 30 pitching predictions this year. I was discussing this article with my daughter as I called her at college to check in on her, and she said I'm now on academic probation with a 0.61 grade point average. Before I end up on double secret probation with her, let's dig into the self-review grades on the 30 pre-season predictions.
To review what was said about each of these predictions, please go back and revisit the articles from the offseason:
It is officially time for this column to put the 2026 season in the rearview mirror and focus on 2027 plans. One of the most mportant things I do each season is this accountability exercise for the 60 bold predictions I made over the offseason so I can learn from them as I plan for the next season. Insanity is doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting different results, so I use this annual exercise to hold myself publicly accountable for the advice I've given you (and applied myself) during draft season. This allows you to learn from my mistakes if you avoided the advice in draft season or decide how much of my advice you should apply to your 2027 draft plans.
I will set expectations up front: it was a rough year for pitching predictions. Pitchers have a higher injury risk as a group, which makes predicting their performance more challenging. I gave myself 17 failing grades of the 30 pitching predictions this year. I was discussing this article with my daughter as I called her at college to check in on her, and she said I'm now on academic probation with a 0.61 grade point average. Before I end up on double secret probation with her, let's dig into the self-review grades on the 30 pre-season predictions.
To review what was said about each of these predictions, please go back and revisit the articles from the offseason:
All ADP mentions are the ADPs are from the 240 RotoWire Online Championships (RWOC) this year while rankings are from our Rotowire rankings.
A Grades
Chad Patrick will be a top-100 pitcher: Patrick had a 295 ADP and was the 114th pitcher off the boards in RWOCs this season. He is currently the 64th ranked pitcher with nine wins, a 3.20 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP and 90 strikeouts in 101.1 innings of work.
Grant Taylor will be a top-80 pitcher: Taylor was the 151st pitcher off the board in RWOCs with an ADP of 339. His role during draft season was uncertain, but his talent was not. Taylor has worked all over the Chicago bullpen, opening some games and closing out others. He has seven wins, eight saves, a 2.23 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP and 100 strikeouts in 76.2 innings of work. That producion currently ranks him 44th out of all pitchers.
Parker Messick will be a top-75 pitcher: This was one guy I tried to draft everywhere, but he was the 111th pitcher in RWOCs with an ADP of 288. He is currently the 14th-best pitcher in our rankings with 11 wins, a 2.51 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP and 178 strikeouts in 172.1 innings of work. I knew he would be good, but not this good already in 2026.
Steven Okert will be a top-500 player: This was someone I drafted in AL-Only leagues as well as draft-and-hold formats. Okert was not drafted in a single RWOC, but he has six wins, a 2.13 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP and 68 strikeouts in 67.2 innings of work. That puts him 81st in our pitcher rankings.
Justin Wrobleski will be a top-200 pitcher: Wrobleski was taken in 52 of the 240 RWOCs and had a 355 ADP. He has 11 wins, a 3.78 ERA and 1.16 WHIP along with 111 strikeouts in 133.1 innings, earning him a ranking of 66th overall this season. The team context of playing for the Dodgers has worked out for the wins, but the WHIP was better than expected.
B Grades
Trey Yesavage will not be a top-80 pitcher: Yesavage was the 75th pitcher off the boards with a 183 ADP in RWOCs. I was concerned he had Bowden Francis vibes, and those played out insofar as Yesavage could not stay healthy. He began the season with a shoulder impingment and then tore his meniscus in August. Around that, he has pitched decently enough, with five wins in 18 starts along with 91 strikeouts in 93.2 innings of work while limiting the league to just 61 hits. The 46 walks and 10 homers are concerning, though.
Cade Horton will not be a top-100 pitcher: Horton was taken just in front of Yesavage in many drafts as the 73rd pitcher off the boards with a 180 ADP. I concluded my prediction for him with a note about the massive workload increase Horton incurred, going from 29 innings in 2024 to 118 in 2025. He tore his UCL two starts into this season.
C Grades
Gerrit Cole makes fewer than 20 starts and pitches fewer than 120 innings: Cole has made exactly 20 starts with two starts remaining and has worked 115.1 innings, with eight wins, a 3.67 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and 117 strikeouts. He was the 94th pitcher off the board with a 241 ADP in RWOCs. He is currently 82nd in our pitching rankings, but the opportunity cost of taking Cole where he was taken cost managers a shot at:
- Eduardo Rodriguez (360): 24th ranked pitcher
- Braxton Ashcraft (241): 27th ranked pitcher
- Nick Martinez (360): 28th ranked pitcher
- Foster Griffin (361): 40th ranked pitcher
Carmen Mlodzinski will be a top-175 pitcher: Mlodzinski is currently ranked 168th, so perhaps I am grading myself too tough here, but this has not exactly been a win. He has worked as a swingman (when he wasn't going AWOL on the team) and has seven wins, a 3.81 ERA and 1.37 WHIP with 90 strikeouts in 115.2 innings. That stat line is usable in deeper mono leagues, but I was expecting more from someone who went in just four of the 240 RWOCs with an ADP of 360.
Tyler Mahle will be a top-100 pitcher: I am offsetting the grade above here, because while Mahle is currently 122nd in our pitcher rankings, he has two starts remaining and has been a fantasy monster since being dealt to Atlanta. Mahle's efforts in San Francisco were disastrous, especially on the road. Since his move to Atlanta and a tweak to his repertoire, Mahle has gone 3-1 with a 1.25 ERA in seven starts and is attempting to sneak into the top 100 by season's end. The 3.91 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 127 strikeouts in 138 innings have had some value, but six wins in 25 starts offsets that.
Connelly Early will be a top-60 pitcher: Early was well on his way to getting to this prediction until his left arm failed him. Early, before being dealt to Washington at the deadline, had seven wins in 17 starts with a 3.44 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP and 93 strikeouts in 91.2 innings. He is currently 130th on the rankings, but the good news overall is he is making it back to pitch for the Nationals this weekend and not (yet) going on the surgeon's table for his left arm.
Clayton Beeter will be a top-200 pitcher: Beeter leads the Nationals in saves with 12. That is where the compliments end. He, along with the entire Washington bullpen, has been an unmitigated disaster this year. Beeter is one of the 13 pitchers in this pen to record a save, but it was the ugliest season for a closer east of Shawn Chacon. He is 137th in our pitcher rankings because of his six wins and 12 saves, but those counting categories have come at some serious ratio costs.
D Grades
Noah Cameron will not be a top-125 pitcher: This one hurt, because he was someone I initially acquired thanks to my bold prediction research, but I saw too many red flags in 2025. This prediction looked like a slam dunk in the middle of July when Cameron was 5-8 with a 5.27 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP through his first 19 starts. Cameron has since gone 4-0 over his last nine starts with a 1.64 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP, pushing him up to 63rd overall in our rankings.
F Grades
Hurston Waldrep will be a top-60 pitcher: This was a failure to launch as Waldrep came up with a bum elbow in the spring requiring removal of bone spurs from his elbow. Waldrep started rehabbing in June but had a setback in July in Triple-A and ended up having Tommy John surgery a couple of weeks ago and will miss all of 2027.
Braxton Garrett will be a top-150 pitcher: This ranking would have worked out well if it were based on Triple-A stats alone. Garrett had an effective season for the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimps, but he made just two appearances for the Marlins, striking out five while walking eight in just over four innings of work.
Nolan McLean will not be a top-60 pitcher: The kid is alright. I encourage you to go back and read the prediction, because I stand by the process even if McLean is currently the 30th best pitcher in our rankings. The workload concerns here, unlike with Horton, did not show up. Ironincally, the swinging strike rate and ball percentage concerns cited in the prediction have each worsened this year, but 11 wins, a 3.24 ERA and 1.18 WHIP along with 184 strikeouts in 166.2 innings wins the day.
Zack Wheeler will not be a top-80 pitcher: Wheeler is currently 26th in our rankings, only due to that rough August while saw him allow 19 earned runs over five starts. The righty has otherwise been stellar this season since returning from his thoracic outlet syndrome surgery on April 25th. His success now gives us two success stories from the surgery in him and Merrill Kelly, but I will very likely exercise the same caution with the next case despite what Wheeler was able to accomplish here to avoid recency bias.
Ryan Helsley will be a top-three closer: Helsley has missed most of the season with elbow discomfort, working 15.1 forgettable innings between injured list stints. He is trying to make it back before the end of the season.
Osvaldo Bido will be a top-250 pitcher: Turns out I had the wrong Rays reclamation project. Nick Martinez was this guy and then some. Bido was not needed after all and was DFA'd by Tampa Bay. He was acquired by the White Sox, who used him for a few weeks before granting him his release to allow him to pursue success in Japan. Spoiler alert: he did even worse over there.
Brady Singer will be a top-100 pitcher: Singer, when asked if he would follow up on his successes from 2025, looked into the camera and said, "No, I don't think I will." He instead reverted to his 2023 struggles with Kansas City and has been merely an innings eater, serving up home runs and hits alike to all who choose to feast.
Matt Svanson will lead the Cardinals in saves: The lesson here is that skills do not always win out. I stand by the process here, but Riley O'Brien seized the opportunity and did not let go. Svanson failed to capitalize on his 2025 success and struggled when given the ball in St. Louis before being stuck on the shuttle to Memphis.
Kyle Finnegan will lead the Tigers in saves: The gains Finnegan displayed last season after being dealt to Detroit did not materialize in 2026 and he developed with a control issue not seen in his last four seasons. Kenley Jansen hasn't exactly been lights out, but Finnegan did nothing to earn a shot.
Zebby Matthews will be a top-75 pitcher: Matthews currently ranks 192nd in our pitching rankings. He has won nine of his 21 starts, but that has come at the cost of a 4.98 ERA thanks to 23 home runs allowed in 119.1 innings of work. Perhaps he, too, can overcome this case of Bailey Oberitis in 2027.
Justin Sterner will save 20-plus games: This was one of my final picks in so many drafts this season, and one of my first cuts as well. Sterner allowed 11 home runs in 42.2 innings of work, seven of which came in 22.1 innings in Sacramento. I still believe in the arm, but he needs a new franchise. The Nationals should give him a chance.
Reid Detmers will not be a top-400 player: Detmers is just outside our top 30 in the pitcher rankings, and he would be higher if the Angels gave him more support. Detmers has just six wins on the season in 30 starts despite a 3.36 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 199 strikeouts in 174 innings. The defense hasn't killed him as much as I worried it would, but the lack of run support has hurt his ceiling. For him to pitch as well as he has and get a win in just 20 percent of his outings is criminal.
Jose Ferrer will be a top-15 closer: Ferrer has not pitched poorly this season, but Munoz has held up, so this prediction never materialized.
Jack Leiter will be a top-75 pitcher: I would love to blame this on the ankle surgery which effectively ended his 2026 season, but the fact of the matter is this guy was horrendous this year. He won three of his 15 starts with a 5.29 ERA and 1.44 WHIP, allowing 14 home runs in 80 innings. For the first time through the order, Leiter held the league to a .198 average with five home runs. The next time through, that jumped to .278 with eight homers. When he managed to get through a lineup twice, it went up to .308 the third time through. He still shows above average Stuff+ on half of his pitches, but he may need to simplify his six-pitch repertoire to find future success and find a way onto one of my teams again.
Jonathan Loaisiga will lead the Diamondbacks in saves: The late signing of Paul Sewald was mocked, but the Diamondbacks squeezed 23 saves out of him and his 6.23 ERA before cutting him loose. Loaisiga has but one save this season, but does have seven wins and a 2.36 ERA out of the pen. Justin Martinez likely has the leg up on this job next season with Juan Morillo lurking around, but Loaisiga has been a serviceable bullpen arm.
Juan Mejia leads the Rockies in saves: Mejia is second in saves for Colorado with four, trailing only Jordan Romano and his 11 saves. It's a foolish pursuit to predict success for anything related to Colorado pitching, unless I start framing the prediction to only consider value in starts on the road or something.
I need to give more credence to late bullpen additions, managerial quips and tendencies in the spring, as well as revisit how harsh I am on pitchers coming back from injuries. That said, the successes of Gerrit Cole and Zack Wheeler could easily result in recency bias, because those were staff aces making comebacks from serious surgeries.
