Collette Calls: Playing the Schedule

There are anywhere from 55 to 58 games remaining for all 30 clubs as play begins on Monday, July 27th. I do not need to tell you that time is of the essence, because we are rapidly approaching the home stretch of the season and several mono leagues, and all leagues to some extent, are about to be impacted by the trade deadline that is hitting exactly one week from today as I compose this sentence. We have already seen one notable trade that impacted hard-luck mono leagues as Curtis Mead and Connelly Early switched sides late Saturday evening. We may or may not see more names move teams as long as players stop getting hurt in these days leading up to the deadline. Shea Langeliers and Spencer Steer are the latest names which have been mentioned in rumors that are now off the market due to injuries, and the Yankees losing Cody Bellinger to a hamstring injury makes it tougher for them to tap into their outfield depth to make a deal of their own.

Until this trade deadline settles, and we have six days after it for the final "FAABapalooza" of the season on August 9, fantasy managers are left to take advantage of the schedule. While every team has 55 to 58 game remaining, the strength of that schedule varies. ATC rest of season projections show the Brewers with the toughest remaining strength of schedule while the Guardians have the easiest one. Tankathon.com shows the Reds with the toughest remaining schedule while concurring with ATC that the Guardians have the easiest remaining schedule. 

To that end, let's see what the schedule says for these teams and look for advantages by extra games played, strength of schedule issues, and see which teams are generating starting pitcher wins and saves.

Games Remaining

Most Remaining Games (58): Reds, White Sox, Red Sox

Least Remaining Games (55): Rockies, Mariners, Guardians, Royals, Astros, Twins

The Guardians have the easiest remaining schedule, but they also have a full three-game series less than ther division rivals on the south side of Chicago. That extra series means 12 to 15 more plate appearance for Chicago regulars along with extra save chances and potential wins. Both colors of hosiery have a strength of schedule in the middle of the pack, while we have already said the Reds have a very tough remaining strength of schedule. As you look to make your final trade or FAAB acquistions, keep in mind these teams will either have a bit more or fewer plate appearance for the remainder of the season. This, of course, assumes health remains constant for all players. The limited roster expansion in September, thankfully, makes it much easier than it once was to deal with playing time in the final weeks of the season.

Toughest Remaining Strength of Schedule

The ATC projections are more tightly condensed with their strength of schedule projections, while Tankathon has a stronger projection for some teams, creating a lack of consensus. This is one of those situations where it comes down to a balance between process and results. For example from last night, starting Zack Wheeler against the Marlins and benching Merrill Kelly against the Pirates was absolutely correct process based off both matchups. The Marlins had lost 12 straight while the Pirates have been the best team in baseball against right-handed starting pitching. The Marlins chased Wheeler after three innings, but in true Marlins form, gave up the lead in the sixth before rallying off Jhoan Duran in the ninth to finally end the losing streak. 

Easiest Remaining Strength of Schedule

The Royals are the only non-contending team on this group, but the other teams could be improving their rosters by this time next week. Conversely, San Diego and Detroit could also change course depending on how their games go this week. Both teams need to pile up the wins to stay in contention while Detroit admittedly has an easier path to October given they are in the American League as well as its weakest division. This type of data helps with making pitching choices on a weekly basis more so than selecting hitters, but the data could be used for that as well. There will be some bad bullpens getting worse at the deadline and some rotations thinning out as well, so sluggers such as Yordan Alvarez, Junior Caminero and Joc Pederson (fresh off a two-homer day!) could enjoy additional favorable matchups. 

Where Starter Wins May or May Not Come From

1. Red Sox - 70%
2. Giants and Angels - 66%
3. Diamondback, Mariners, Reds, Phillies - 65%

59 percent of team wins have been awarded to starting pitchers this season, which is on par with where that figure has been in recent years, the further we get away from the 2020 season. It is easy to discount the two California-based teams here since both will be downgraded with deals at the deadline, and the same could be said about the Reds. The Red Sox have been the best in the league at this all season; even when they weren't on their winning streak, the starters were winning most of the games the team won. Jake Bennett would be the best beneficiary of this latest trend, as he has won each of his last five starts and gets the Athletics in his next start. The other teams are seeing their starters earn a win nearly two of every three times out.

Conversely, there are starters who have struggled to convert starts into wins. It is not surprising some of these teams are struggling, but a first place team is in this group. We saw this Monday night when Noah Schultz could not get out of the fourth inning due to pitch inefficiency against a disciplined yet weakened Yankee lineup:

1. Blue Jays - 44%
2. Rockies and Mets - 50%
3. White Sox and Padres - 51%

Davis Martin has won nine of his 20 starts this season despite a 3.49 ERA, while Anthony Kay has seven wins in 19 starts with a 4.24 ERA. No other Chicago starter has more than five wins. Meanwhile, the Padres do not have any starter with more than six wins despite Walker Buehler and Michael King each making 21 starts this season.

Where Saves May or May Not Come From

1. Rays - 66%
2. Blue Jays - 65%
3. Guardians - 61%
4. Royals & Astros - 60%

Two contenders and two rebuilders here. Bryan Baker, Louis Varland, Cade Smith and Josh Hader are getting the baseball when games are close and late for their respective teams. The Toronto roster is going to get weaker with trades this week, so Varland's opportunities are likely to decrease. The same could be said for the Royals, who lack a full-time closer and could decide to move Alex Lange and leave the situation very wide open.

Meanwhile, several clubs are challenging for speculating on saves. 51 percent of wins include a save, but there are four teams who have recorded a save in fewer than 40 percent of their wins:

1. Angels - 31%
2. Cubs - 37%
3. Mets & Pirates - 39%

We once again have two rebuilders and two contenders on this list. The Pirates recently designated their Opening Day closer, Dennis Santana, for assignment and will be looking to address their bullpen this week. The Cubs have been forced into a committe situation all season due to multiple injuries to Daniel Palencia. Jacob Webb leads the club with five saves while 12 different relievers have garnered saves this season for the Cubs.

At the end of the day, it comes down to taking advantage of whatever you can in the schedule. We are often so focused on six- or seven-game weeks and how many righty or lefty starters are on the schedule that we can overlook other areas which can be leveraged in our decision-making for daily or weekly lineup moves as we pursue league titles.