Collette Calls: September Dreams and Realities

Now that I have a daugther attending the University of Kentucky, I feel obligated to use a horse racing phrase: And down the stretch they come! We have but four remaining scoring periods left in the season for those leagues who play out the entirety of the season until the final day of the regular season. I am holding onto first place in my home AL-Only league as well as in AL Tout Wars, hoping to close strong in both leagues. I have been in this home league since 2015 and have never finished on top and get heckled for it. Meanwhile, I have been in a Tout Wars league since 2007 and have also never won a league title. I turn another year older near the end of this month, but I may age a whole decade trying to hold onto the top spot in both of these leagues while also trying for a third in a draft-and-hold format where I currently sit second place. 

This is also a time when some fantasy managers can develop false expectations for what is possible in the final month of the season. It is worth remembering that this particular September is shorter than most, as the season ends on September 27th. There have been previous years where the final month of the regular season has leaked into early October, but no team has more than 25 games to be played over these final four weeks. I believe it would be helpful to look back at recent seasons to see what happened for all players with at least 100 plate appearances in the final month of the season to help all of us see the range of possibilities. This can help us have more realistic expectations of what is possible over these final four weeks as opposed to focusing on the best possible outcome and not hinge our plans on wishcasting. After all, we should listen to our elders more often. 

The data included below is from all instances of players with at least 100 plate appearances in the final month of the season from 2016-2025 — a sample size of 1,015.

Batting Average

Median: .270
Minimum: .099 by Brandon Moss in 2016
Maximum: .417 by Xander Bogaerts in 2023

23.7 percent of the sample size hit at least .300 over the final month of the season, which is a surprisingly high number. 4.8 percent of the sample hit at least .350 over the final month, and there even four instances of hitters hitting over .400 in the final month of the season:

This is mostly a list full of stars, as we remember what Yoan Moncada was like at his peak, but the only recent surprise name happened just last season when Lile closed out the season strongly. We also get other surprises such as in 2024 when Jose Iglesias hit .371 during that fun Mets run, Joe Panik hitting .370 for the Giants in September of 2017 and Brandon Drury hitting .357 for Arizona in September of 2016. However, this is mostly a list of notables. One name is not going to move the needle too much in a standard mixed leagues, but having multiple names can help you close some gaps over the final weeks. To reinforce the spectrum angle of this category, Ozuna also hit .150 in September of 2019 in 117 plate appearances while Panik hit .167 in September of 2016. These things can truly go either way.

Runs

Median: 15
Minimum: 3 by Salvador Perez in 2024
Maximum: 31 by Tyler O'Neill in 2021

I never would have guessed the leader in this category if you would have given me 50 attempts, but it helped that Tyler O'Neill drove himself in 13 times with home runs on his way to scoring 31 runs in the final month of the 2021 season. He is the only player in the sample set to score more than 30 runs. 15.7 percent of the sample scored at least 20 runs over a final month of the season, and the runs can truly come from anyone. Names like Nicky Lopez, Jesus Aguilar and Yasmani Grandal pop on the list, as does the aforementioned Perez, who scored 24 runs in September of 2021. 

It is worth noting that the leaderboard has no representatives from the past two seasons. Each of the past two seasons have ended on the final weekend of September and there are just three players who have scored at least 25 runs: Judge, Ohtani, and Wyatt Langford. Just 14% of the sample size from the past two seasons has scored 20 runs in either of the past two Septembers, which is a slightly lower percentage than the larger sample.

RBI

Median: 14
Maximum: 36 by J.D. Martinez in 2017
Minimum: 2 by Bubba Thompson in 2022

It's still special when someone reaches the 100 RBI plateau in a season. Two players hit that mark before September 1 this season: Alec Burleson and Sal Stewart. In each of the past two seasons, there have been 16 hitters reaching the 100 RBI mark, down from the 20-plus we would see annually in the years heading into 2020. That is why it's impressive to see 10 players drive in 30 or more runs in the final month of the season, even if it has happened just once over the previous three Septembers:

As we know, driving in runners is as much, if not more, a matter of opportunity than it is a demonstrable skill itself. After all, the same Ozuna who drove in 33 runners in September of 2020 also drove in just 12 in September of 2019 over 117 plate appearances. Hernandez followed up that amazing 2021 with 12 RBIs in 122 plate appearances for Seattle in September of 2023. Martinez had 12 RBIs in 100 plate appearances for Boston in September of 2020

Home Runs

Median: 4
Maximum: 16 by J.D. Martinez in 2017
Minimum: 0 by 54 different hitters

This is the critical category of the final month because a home run contributes to four categories, and if someone can hit 10-plus homers in September, there is an excellent chance they can also score 20-plus runs as well as drive in 20 or more. There are 37 instances in the sample size (3.7 percent) of hitters hitting 10 or more home runs in the final month of the season; 31 unique names and 37 instances overall. There are three players who have hit 10 or more homers twice in the sample, and there names should not surprise you: Judge (4x), Kyle Schwarber (3x), and Ohtani (2x). Nearly a third of the 37 instances find a batter hitting 10 or more homers and failing to score at least 20 runs, while there are 11 instances of batters hitting 10 or more homers while failing to drive in 20 runs. Evan Gattis (2016), Anthony Santander (2022), Schwarber (2022), Eugenio Suarez (2019), Brian Dozier (2016) are the unfortunate quintent who hit the required homers but failed to eclipse 20 runs or RBI while doing so.

While this list is mostly a group of notables, at that time, it sure is fun to see the likes of Duvall and especially Carter on this list to remind us that anything can happen down the stretch. Of course, with the reduction of expanded rosters in September in recent years, there is not as much inexperienced pitching on the mound in September, which reduces the chances of surprise power production.

Steals

This particular category tends to be tighter in mono leagues than mixed leagues down the stretch, but steals remain important since the league does tend to slow down over the final weeks of the season. 2.5 percent of the sample finds players with at least 10 steals in September. Of those 25 names, four players pulled it off twice: Adalberto Mondesi (2018, 2020), Dee Strange-Gordon (2016, 2017), Jonathan Villar (2016, 2018) and Corbin Carroll (2023, 2024). I find it odd Carroll is the only person to pull it off despite the advantage runners have these days with the changes in the running game, but he currently stands alone as a repeater under the new rules.

Since the rule changes, aside from Carroll, we have seen just a handful of names steal 10 or more bases. Those names include:

• 2023: Nolan Jones, Jacob Young, Ronald Acuna Jr., Elly De La Cruz, Bobby Witt Jr.
• 2024: Jazz Chisholm Jr., Dylan Crews
• 2025: Juan Soto, Gunnar Henderson

Chisholm is still pursuing his goal of 50 steals this season even as he falls well short of his 50-homer goal, so he would be the odds-on favorite to make the list this season in all markets outside of Boston. 

Pitching statistics are a tougher pull from sources because pitching splits leaderboards will exclude wins and saves, but StatHead provides a report of leaders so I will use that data, even if it doesn't display the entire sample on a single page. I say this to explain why the median, maximum, and minimum data points are missing from certain pitching categories

Wins

There are 21 instances of pitchers winning five games in the final month from 2016-2025, and 20 of them involve starting pitchers. Alex Reyes, who went 5-1 out of the St. Louis bullpen in 2021, stands alone as the win vulture of the group. Below, you will see a list of the five-win pitchers by season:

• 2016: Jon Lester, Max Scherzer
• 2017: Carlos Carrasco, Mike Clevenger, Corey Kluber, Jon Lester, Justin Verlander
• 2018: Kyle Freeland, Rich Hill, Miles Mikolas, Blake Snell, Jose Urena, Gerrit Cole
• 2019: Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander, Adam Wainwright
• 2021: Michael Pineda, Alex Reyes, Julio Urias
• 2022: Shane Bieber, Yu Darvish, Clayton Kershaw
• 2023: none
• 2024: none
• 2025: Max Fried

Even in an era where September pitching staffs are limited, the five-win pitcher has become tougher to find in recent seasons. Most of the starters made at least six starts in these seasons, with Kershaw making seven in 2022, while Verlander, Mikolas, and Hill were the only ones to go a perfect five-for-five in their starts.

Saves

There are 40 instances of a pitcher saving at least eight games in the final month of the season since 2016, but just seven instances of a reliever saving 10 or more. It is worth noting each of those seven names are unique, as nobody has pulled the feat off twice:

• Emmanuel Clase: 12 in 2022
• Giovanny Gallegos: 11 in 2021
• Kenley Jansen: 11 in 2022
• David Bednar: 10 in 2023
• Josh Hader: 10 in 2019
• Mark Melancon: 10 in 2016
• Roberto Osuna: 10 in 2018

Quite the bookend of names on that list, but I digress. Simply put, if you are banking on a closer getting double-digit saves this month, you need to revisit your line of thinking. The extra arm or two in the bullpen and the load management some teams will employ as playoff positioning settles itself in the coming weeks will alter some normal usage patterns. Bryan Baker, Cade Smith, Riley O'Brien, Mason Miller, David Bednar, Louis Varland and Aroldis Chapman each have at least 30 saves this season, but asking any of them to get 10 or more saves over the final four weeks is rather improbable. A more reasonable expectation is six to eight saves from the top closers, but given we have just 16 relievers with at least 20 saves this season, the odds of a closer with 10 or more saves in September appearing this year are extremely small.

Strikeouts

Median: 28
Maximum: 74 by Gerrit Cole in 2019
Minimum: 9 by Zack Greinke in 2022

Cole's 2019 push to the Cy Young was freakishly good, as he's the only pitcher in the sample with 60 or more strikeouts in the final month of a season. Only Brandon Woodruff with his 58 strikeouts in 2022 and German Marquez as well as Justin Verlander with their 57 strikeouts in 2018 and 2019 respectively come close. There are 14 instances of starters striking out at least 50 batters in the final month of a season with Verlander doing it three separate times and Cole repeating the feat in 2022. Woodruff, Cole and Kevin Gausman are the only pitchers to strike out 50 or more batters in September since the pandemic season of 2020:

Over the past three seasons, nobody has reached 50 strikeouts in September, and the current leaders are Tyler Glasnow and Logan Gilbert who each struck out 48 batters in 2023 and 2024, respectively. Last season, September was particularly tough on strikeouts, as only Chris Sale and Garrett Crochet even struck out as many as 40 batters in September. They were two of just 22 pitchers to collect as many as 30 strikeouts in September of last year. The 2025 season ended on Sunday, September 28. This year, it ends on Sunday the 27th. It would not shock me if no pitcher reaches the 40 strikeout plateau this month.

ERA

Median: 3.68
Minimum: 0.32 by Cristian Javier in 2022
Maximum: 9.95 by Jackson Kowar in 2021

As Javier proved in 2022, hot pitching runs can come out of nowhere in the final month of the season. There is just one pitcher who has twice posted sub-1.00 ERAs in September while pitching at least 25 innings in each of those spans, and only my local league mate Brad A. would know that answer: Jose Quintana. The crafty lefty posted a 0.81 ERA over 6 starts in 2022 and a 0.72 ERA over 4 starts in 2024. After Javier's improbable 2022 run comes Chris Bassitt, who pitched to a 0.34 ERA over his last four starts of the 2020 season. 

11 percent of the sample pitched to below a 2.00 ERA in September, while a third pitched to below a 3.00 ERA. The key is to avoid the blow-ups and the risky matchups in September and hope that nobody pulls aColin Rea on you. It is tough to make up ground in ERA over the final weeks, but it is much easier to lose ground if you expose your staff to a risky matchup while chasing counting-category dreams:

WHIP

Median: 1.20
Minimum: 0.57 by Jack Flaherty in 2019 and Jacob deGrom in 2018
Maximum: 2.17 by Dallas Keuchel in 2021

Like ERA, WHIP is about mitigating risks while hoping to potentially climb a spot in the category and avoiding dropping. Flaherty worked 44 innings in his season, which is rare these days as no pitcher has worked even 40 innings over the past three Septembers, with just 16 instances of pitchers working as many as 35 innings in September over that stretch. None of those pitchers repeated that feat in 2024 or 2025, while Logan Webb set the high-inning mark this past season with just 33.1 innings of work.

20.8 percent of the sample pitched to below a 1.00 WHIP while 13 percent pitched to a WHIP of 1.50 or higher. It is all about matchup management the rest of the way:

When giving yourself a pep talk down the stretch, let your inner voice have the pessimism of Han Solo rather than the optimism of Luke Skywalker in A New Hope. Use these numbers to set some realistic expectations of what is possible these final four weeks and may the force be with you!