Collette Calls: Simpson Chasing History

Chandler Simpson was a polarizing player during the 2026 draft season. He wrapped up 2025 with 44 steals, 53 runs scored, a .295 average along with 26 runs driven in, and no homers. He did manage to hit one out in spring training this year, but to date, remains homerless in the regular season. The Rays are in Sacramento this week, so this is likely the best remaining chance that Simpson has to get his first career home run this season. It has not exactly been the smoothest of rides, but Simpson is quietly exceeding expectations bestowed upon him as fantasy managers debated where to draft him before the season.

The preseason projections for Simpson were as such in the marketplace:

Simpson's ADP range in the month of March was anywhere from 83 to 284, with an ADP of 170 over 245 drafts. That range narrowed to 110 to 296 in the RotoWire Online Championships and further to 125 to 284 in the 60 Main Event drafts. Simpson enters play on August 10th as the 102-ranked fantasy player in standard formats and the 29th-ranked outfielder, but his journey there has had its ups and downs.

Simpson came fast out of the gate to begin the season hitting .381/.409/.444 over his first 17 games and 69 plate appearances while stealing seven bases in nine attempts. More impressively, Simpson struck out just four times in that span as he bunted and slashed the ball around the field achieving a .407 BABIP. Simpson then went 0-for-6 in his 18th game to start a cold streak which saw him hit .257/.292/.305 over 113 plate appearances with 15 runs and seven steals in 10 attempts. At the end of that streak, Simpson injured his hand on this play at home on May 16th:

Simpson did not go on the injured list after that injury and did not even miss the next game, but his numbers went into a tailspin as he hit .172/.217/.207 over the next month and was unsuccessful in his three stolen base attempts. Simpson was hitting .259/.295/.306 with 14 steals in 22 attemps through is first 275 plate appearances and was being dropped in mixed leagues by frustrated owners. The rolling graphs for Simpson's batting average by Fathers' Day weekend looked as such:

The batting average got that way with too many weak grounders that were not clearing the infield as well as too many flyballs for someone with 10-grade power. Simpson's fingers appeared to get healthy toward the end of June because he has been scorching hot since then, hitting .383/.399/.463 with 16 runs scored and 17 steals in 20 attemps over over these last 41 games. Over those 166 plate appearances, Simpson has six walks and nine strikeouts and has greatly cut down on those harmless flyballs to the opposite field while focusing more on spraying the ball around the infield and into the outfield:

That change in approach has helped him turn around his season at the plate so his batting average has climbed from the depths of fantasy despair to the best one in the league by nearly 30 points since he started this latest heater:

Simpson's turnaround has helped him get his season back on the expected path. He came into play Monday with 124 hits in 440 plate appearances after getting 122 hits in 441 plate appearances in 2025. He has also turned around his struggles on the bases and has been successful in 17 of his last 20 in his attempts after going 14 for his first 22. These two seasons with 100-plus hits as well as 30-plus steals in his first two seasons has put Simpson in some rare company. Simpson is one of just 13 players since 1900 to reach those thresholds in each of his first two seasons in the league, joining an interesting cast of names:

Simpson is clearly closer to the likes of Elvis Andrus and Delino DeShields than he is Bobby Witt Jr and Ichiro Suzuki, but it is still crazy to see him on this report considering where Simpson was in mid-June. There was even talk about him going back to Triple-A Durham, but his defensive improvements kept him on the roster so this turnaround could be enjoyed by fantasy managers who found Simpson on the waiver wire in late June.

The risk with Simpson moving forward is that he puts so many balls in play with his high contact rate that he is at the mercy of his batting average on balls in play, but he has used his speed to get 10 bunt hits and another 19 infield hits this season, helping keep some of the BABIP regression at bay. Simpson's current level of production has him just outside of the top 100 in earned value, but as Simpson continues to hit and run with abandon on the basepaths, he appears to be significantly improving his draft stock for 2027. Whereas the discussion last year was whether Simpson was worth a pick inside the top 150, the discussion this winter will be how far he jumps into the top 100 now that he's showing he's more than just a one-trick pony.