Saturday's main slate at FanDuel gets underway at a rare 6:05 p.m. EDT and includes an expanded 10 games, all of which start by 7:15. Unlike last night when we were void of quality pitching, we're treated to a slate of aces here. Three arms are priced in five-figures with four more sitting at $9,000 or greater.
The books don't fully agree with pitching dominating this slate, however. Two games sit with totals at 7.5, two more at 8.0, and then things rise to the high point of 10.5 runs with Twins - A's. Milwaukee (-225) is the slate's overwhelming favorite, followed by the Dodgers (-164) and Twins (-162). Weather looks to be a complete nonfactor. There's no rain to worry about, temperatures are up from Friday, creating a slightly better hitting environment, and there's no real wind to consider.
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Pitching
Bryan Woo, SEA at TEX ($9,000): There's no wrong answer in the arms priced above Woo, and there's arguably more upside in most of them, but I'll land here for perceived stability as a cash game play to allow some additional spending offensively. Woo is in a bit of a rough patch, and his road splits are dramatically worse, but Globe Life Field isn't your typical opposing park, being pitcher friendly. He's faced the Rangers' lineup for 81 plate appearances, earning a 24.7 percent strikeout rate while allowing a .182 BA and .469 OPS. The Mariners are slight favorites, and the Rangers have a 3.8 run expectancy.
Nick Martinez, TB vs. CLE ($8,000): I personally think Martinez is long overdue for regression; his 2.59 ERA comes with a 4.71 xFIP, he doesn't miss bats (5.0 K/9) and is vulnerable to homers. He offers next to no GPP upside as a result, we're just asking for bulk innings with minimal damage. I'm drawn to both sides of this pitching matchup, but Martinez is the cheaper option, and is backed by the better offense. The Guardians sit with a 98 wRC+ off righties and come with a 3.5 run expectancy.
Robert Gasser, MIL vs. COL ($7,600): Perhaps Gasser is too obvious of a pay-down option. Milwaukee is a massive favorite, and he gets a Rockies lineup that has a 25.3 percent K rate off lefties while posting a poor 82 wRC+ and .131 ISO. Gasser has been hurt by homers of late, seemingly a minor at best concern here, but otherwise has five decent to good starts in his last six.
Top Targets
Kyle Schwarber ($3,800) has limped out of the All-Star Break, but has a .406 wOBA, 157 wRC+ and .295 ISO off lefties overall. Pair that with going 3-for-6 with two homers off Ryan Weathers, and he could break out of a funk here. You can stay in Philly and target Yankee bats once the Phillies' pitching plans become more clear. Ben Rice ($4,100) will likely be cost prohibitive, but some value options should open up before first pitch.
Bryce Elder has allowed at least one long ball in seven straight starts (12 total). Pete Alonso ($3,400) is 4-for-14 with a homer off him from his Mets days, and Elder has been far worse on the road and more vulnerable to righties.
Bargain Bats
Jacob Wilson ($2,900) saw a 10-game hitting streak end last night, but I see little reason to not go back to that well against Connor Prielipp, even with the likely leadoff hitter having negative splits off lefties. Wilson has 13 hits and three homers in his last nine.
Julio Rodriguez ($3,100) is an intriguing BvP play, but a touch expensive. He's 9-for-24 (.375) with a homer off Nathan Eovaldi, who's allowed five homers in his last three starts.
Nathaniel Lowe ($2,700) profiles similarly as a BvP play. He's 4-for-11 (.364) with two homers off Andre Pallante, against whom we're never afraid to target, giving us a cheap power play.
If you don't want to chase a homer from Alonso, Christian Encarnacion-Strand ($2,900) has three homers and eight hits in five games since debuting with Baltimore.
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Stacks to Consider
Brewers vs. Ryan Feltner (Rockies):Jackson Chourio ($3,600, Bryce Turang ($3,500), Christian Yelich ($3,300)
For as obvious as Gasser is on the mount, the Brewers offense seems exactly the same. The form isn't great, which has created some decreased pricing, making a full stack very manageable. Feltner has a 5.32 road ERA, allowing a .416 wOBA to lefties and .372 to righties, so you can really build this stack however is needed financially and positionally based on how you've created your lineup elsewhere. For now, I'll simply list three of their biggest bats that hit atop the order and allow you to adjust accordingly. Milwaukee should flirt with six or more runs.
Twins vs. Mason Barnett/bullpen (A's): Byron Buxton ($3,800), Ryan Jeffers ($3,400), Trevor Larnach ($3,000)
I went to the Jeffers well last night and it didn't bust, but it didn't pop either. I'm willing to give him another shot in a plus matchup. Barnett likely isn't long for this game after being recalled for the start, and the A's bullpen ranks last in the league with a 5.37 ERA. There's not a lot of great form in this stack, so we'll have to trust the season-long success and the Twins 6.5 run expectancy a bit more than I'd like, making this a GPP play only. Buxton has a .397 wOBA, 157 wRC+ and .336 ISO off righties, Jeffers sits at .389/151/.281 and Larnach at .382/146/.164, and they should all hit around each other near the top of the order.
