A busy 13-game main slate is on tap Friday at FanDuel, with games getting underway at 7:05 p.m. EDT. That's 26 starting pitchers to sort through, with only three coming in at five-figures followed by just five more at $9,000 or greater, so it's top heavy and not overly deep.
That's not fully supported by the betting lines, giving us massive totals, however. We've got standard elevated numbers in Coors Field (11.5) and Sutter Health Park (10.5), and depressed numbers in Seattle (7.5) and Toronto (7.5), where slate ace Dylan Cease ($11,000) is on the bump. All remaining games sit between 8.0 and 9.0 run totals. The Mariners (-184) are the biggest favorites, followed by the Blue Jays (-172) and Brewers (-172). Overall, weather doesn't look impactful with winds not being present anywhere. The ball was carrying well in Atlanta Thursday, and it's going to be really hot in Sacramento, likely creating a favorable environment.
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Pitching
Bryce Miller, SEA vs. MIN ($9,500): This appears to be a get-right spot for Miller, who's allowed 11 runs and 22 hits in his last three starts, spanning 16.0 innings. He has a 0.95 home ERA (2.04 FIP) and his strikeouts are 2.5 per nine higher in Seattle. Minnesota is without Byron Buxton and has a mere 3.0 run expectancy.
Shane Drohan, MIL at LAA ($8,800): Drohan continues to pile up innings, going six in four straight, three times racking up at least six strikeouts. The Angels, surprisingly, have a league average 100 wRC+ off lefties, but it's their swing-and-miss we target, as they fan 25.7 percent of the time. Pair that with the Brewers being heavily favored, and the play on Drohan is a potential win, quality start and high strikeouts to create a 4x ceiling.
Freddy Peralta, NYM vs. MIA ($7,800): There are certainly a lot of questions here. Peralta hasn't been what the Mets hoped for when they acquired him, and he's heavily mentioned in trade rumors, so there's the potential for a scratch or a quick hook. But the talent remains better than this price point, and if he can keep the walks in check, he can get enough innings to return a fair value. He's allowed one or two runs in three of his last four, but has gone five innings just once in that stretch. The Marlins have hit him okay, with a .279 average and .884 OPS, striking out 22.4 percent of the time. I'm willing to roll the dice at this price to see if we get a vintage performance and a potential boost in trade value.
Top Targets
The A's Jeffrey Springs is allowing a .400 wOBA and .945 OPS to righties at home. Dillon Dingler ($3,600) is an easy one-off option at the top end to get a piece of this potentially high scoring game.
I loathe the price points, but it's not responsible for me to simply ignore the Royals in Coors Field. Tomoyuki Sugano is surrendering a .390 wOBA and .913 OPS to lefties there, putting Carter Jensen ($3,800) and Jac Caglianone ($3,700) on radars even though neither presents with great form presently.
With the obvious games out of the way, I'd consider Braves - Nationals for lesser-used top options. Bryce Elder has allowed three homers over his last 11 innings, and CJ Abrams ($4,000) is 6-for-19 (.316) against him. He wasn't in on yesterday's homer barrage, so look for him to engage Friday. On the other side, Drake Baldwin ($3,600) is hitting .407 with five homers in his last 14.
Bargain Bats
A plethora of Tigers merit consideration as either cheaper one-offs or stacking options with Dingler. Spencer Torkelson ($3,100) has taken Springs deep twice in six at bats. Hao-Yu Lee ($2,800) is hitting .343 with 11 RBI in his last 12, and Javier Baez ($2,600) is back in action, collecting five hits in his last nine at bats.
Janson Junk has struggled on the road, sitting with a 6.31 ERA, allowing lefties to post a .431 wOBA and 1.017 OPS against him. The Mets have a plethora of options to consider, highlighted by Francisco Lindor ($3,000). Carson Benge ($2,900) and A.J. Ewing ($3,100) certainty can be paired for a cheap, low rostered GPP stack.
If you're a BvP guy, Willy Adames ($2,900) is 6-for-13 with four homers off German Marquez, who seems likely for bulk innings following Bradgley Rodriguez opening.
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Stack to Consider
Guardians vs. Mitch Bratt (Diamondbacks):Jose Ramirez ($3,500), Travis Bazzana ($3,200), Chase DeLauter ($3,100)
The Guardians lineup overall looks appealing in this matchup given price points, so feel free to pick and choose your pieces as your lineup build requires. Bratt hasn't shown capable of getting big-leaguers out, bringing a 6.32 ERA, 6.65 xFIP and a meager 5.7 K/9 into Friday, allowing 2.3 HR/9 to boot. Ramirez should offer some stability and crushes lefties to a .391 wOBA and .247 ISO. DeLauter has been solid against southpaws with a team-best .408 wOBA and 167 wRC+. Bazzana is far from must use, and isn't penciled in to hit atop the order here, nor has he fared well against lefties. See how the lineup card shakes out, and there can be a potential third piece that comes even cheaper.
Padres vs. Carson Whisenhunt (Giants):Fernando Tatis ($3,400), Ty France ($3,100), Luis Rengifo ($2,600)
Here I go again with a stack that largely hasn't worked all season but continues to be priced where I'm forced to fall in love. Rengifo looks like a terrific bargain, hitting .405 over his last 37 plate appearances while also leading the team with a .414 wOBA against lefties (in very minimal exposure). Tatis sits with a .365 wOBA off southpaws and is hitting .346 with three homers in his last 13, while France has a .375 wOBA and 141 wRC+ while hitting .340 with five homers in his last 13.
