A slightly smaller 10-game main slate is on tap Friday at FanDuel, getting underway at 7:05 p.m. EDT. Only five arms fall into my pay up tier of $9,000 or greater so if you choose right, you'll likely get an advantage on the competition.
The lack of high-end pitching gives us some unique favorites, with the Giants (-174) leading the way, followed by the Cardinals (-156) and Twins (-144). Twins - A's gives us our highest run total at 9.5, with three additional games sitting at 9.0 and two at a slate-low 7.5. Weather looks like a nonfactor overall; no rain concerns, it's cooler than usual for late July, and only some wind potential in San Francisco.
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Pitching
Trevor Rogers, BAL vs. ATL ($8,900): We must be careful here, as Rogers isn't confirmed as of Friday morning. But he's in far better form than any option priced above him, reeling off six straight starts of two runs or less, earning five quality starts in the process. Atlanta's bats are surging out of the All-Star Break, but still sit with a below average 93 wRC+ off lefties overall and appear to still be without Ronald Acuna. His adversary, Grant Holmes, is completely unable to get through a lineup three times, so Rogers should get some run support.
MacKenzie Gore, TEX vs. SEA ($8,400): Gore is my obvious choice on the cheaper side of a lower scoring game. Globe Life Park is a pitchers park, we've got a 7.5 run expectancy and he's been miles better there than on the road; posting a 3.44 ERA, 10.3 K/9 and 2/2 BB/9 against 6.02, 9.6 and 4.5 on the road. Seattle fans 23.8 percent against lefties with an 87 wRC+, and in 61 plate appearances against Gore, this lineup is hitting .224 with a 31.1 percent K rate. He's volatile, but there's a ceiling.
German Marquez, SD at MIA ($6,800): It's a gross slate, and I wouldn't feel great about using Marquez; the Marlins are favored despite not having a clear starter and have lost nine in a row! But he's managed to work five or more frames in six of his last nine and could stumble into 20-plus FanDuel points against a slumping lineup that's scored 23 runs during this skid, and one of which we're unlikely to target. Far from an elite profile but enough potential for multi-entry GPP consideration.
Top Targets
Spencer Arrighetti has struggled on the road, where he's allowing a .409 wOBA and .920 OPS to lefties. Munetaka Murakami ($3,900) hasn't found his power stroke since returning from IL, but perhaps we can get out in front of that slump. Pairing him with Colson Montgomery ($3,200) offers a boom-or-bust mini-stack.
The price point is a touch high for me, but Ryan Jeffers ($3,400) leads the Twins with a .422 wOBA and 174 wRC+ off lefties. He's homered against Jacob Lopez previously, and the A's starter has an ugly 1.73 WHIP overall.
Bargain Bats
Sean Manaea has allowed two homers in each of his last three starts. These are largely BvP plays, but we've got tremendous price breaks on Mookie Betts ($2,900) and Kyle Tucker ($3,200). The former is 10-for-32 (.313) with two homers and a 1.153 OPS, while the latter is 7-for-20 (.350) with four homers and a 1.381 OPS off the Mets starter.
Ty France ($3,000) doesn't seem to be garnering enough attention. He's been on fire for the last month, hitting .342 with eight homers and six doubles, and 19 RBI in his 21 games.
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Stacks to Consider
Giants vs. Grayson Rodriguez (Angels): Rafael Devers ($3,300), Bryce Eldridge ($3,100), Luis Arraez ($2,900)
Why can't I quit this lineup? They remain cheap (largely because of underperformance) but continue to land in favorable spots when I'm covering a slate. Rodriguez has been better away from home, but is allowing a .436 wOBA and 1.043 OPS to lefties overall. None of these three is in great form, but Devers and Eldridge give this stack some power potential. Arraez is a floor play that hasn't shown of late. I wouldn't hate Jung Hoo Lee ($2,800) as a third piece if he slots higher in the lineup.
Cardinals vs. Rhett Lowder (Reds):JJ Wetherholt ($3,400), Alec Burleson ($3,300), Lars Nootbaar ($2,900)
Lowder is another arm that can't get lefties out, allowing a .382 wOBA overall, which rises to .444 on the road. There's certainly a concern over workload here, but the Reds' bullpen ranks 25th with a 4.69 ERA, so we can confidently target the top of the order with Wetherholt and Burleson. Nootbaar gives a third lefty for cheap, but I'd fault no one for simply anchoring this with Jordan Walker ($3,900) if you can afford him.
