It's the time of the baseball season when it gets difficult to cater to everyone's interests. By now, it's pretty clear which teams are contending for fantasy championships and which are playing for pride or looking to next season in the keeper/dynasty context. We'll attempt to bridge that gap in this week's edition of the Barometer by looking at some overlooked breakouts this season that have come from players between the ages of 19 and 25.
To identify the players in this article, I referred back to preseason Steamer projections and compared them to a player's results so far this season. The idea is to identify hitters who can help down the stretch this season, or be cheap trade or waiver targets to well position long-term league managers heading into 2027.
Risers
Projections: 8 HR, 60 R, 39 RBI, 12 SB, .261 BA in 483 PA
2026 line: 11 HR, 67 R, 46 RBI, 2 SB, .274 BA in 475 PA
Meidroth held his own as a rookie in 2025, posting an 87 wRC+ and .294 wOBA as a 23-year-old. There was very little fantasy impact built into his stat line, with the only headline being his 14 stolen bases. Both of those things have changed for the better in 2026, as he's gotten more aggressive at the plate and cut his groundball rate.
That has increased the damage he's been able to do with his contact and led to significantly improved results. Meidroth is hardly a slugger,
It's the time of the baseball season when it gets difficult to cater to everyone's interests. By now, it's pretty clear which teams are contending for fantasy championships and which are playing for pride or looking to next season in the keeper/dynasty context. We'll attempt to bridge that gap in this week's edition of the Barometer by looking at some overlooked breakouts this season that have come from players between the ages of 19 and 25.
To identify the players in this article, I referred back to preseason Steamer projections and compared them to a player's results so far this season. The idea is to identify hitters who can help down the stretch this season, or be cheap trade or waiver targets to well position long-term league managers heading into 2027.
Risers
Projections: 8 HR, 60 R, 39 RBI, 12 SB, .261 BA in 483 PA
2026 line: 11 HR, 67 R, 46 RBI, 2 SB, .274 BA in 475 PA
Meidroth held his own as a rookie in 2025, posting an 87 wRC+ and .294 wOBA as a 23-year-old. There was very little fantasy impact built into his stat line, with the only headline being his 14 stolen bases. Both of those things have changed for the better in 2026, as he's gotten more aggressive at the plate and cut his groundball rate.
That has increased the damage he's been able to do with his contact and led to significantly improved results. Meidroth is hardly a slugger, and he never will be. However, he has managed to increase his barrel rate from 1.6 to 4.8 percent, and his xwOBAcon from .303 to .334. His ISO has risen from a minuscule .067 in 2025 to .130 this season.
Meidroth's projection is particularly useful because his current plate appearance total is nearly identical to that of his projection. He has already easily surpassed all expectation in his counting-stat production and is also well outpacing his projected batting average. The one complaint is his lack of stolen bases, but he's more than made up for that in the rest of his skills profile.
/ The results haven't improved much in terms of wins and losses for the Rockies this season, but the team has stopped blocking its better prospects and potential future contributors under new management. Carrigg and Karros are two positive examples of younger players who have shown promise with consistent playing time.
Carrigg was viewed as a high-variance prospect due to his aggressive and free-swinging traits at the plate, and his glove was projected to be his carrying tool by the time he reached the upper levels of the minors. Nevertheless, the Rockies promoted him to the majors after only 257 plate appearances at Triple-A midway through this season. He's shown that relatively aggressive promotion from the Rockies to be worthwhile. Carrigg has delivered strong defense in center field and has honed his approach at the plate, remaining aggressive on pitches inside the zone while also working an 11.3 percent walk rate. Carrigg has used that ability to get on base to attempt eight stolen bases in 186 plate appearances, though he has been caught three times. The quality of his contact is also questionable, which makes this more of a tentative "Riser," but Carrigg has likely secured a role heading into the 2027 season. His willingness to run combined with the benefits of Coors Field make him an intriguing fantasy option.
Karros is another example of what can happen when teams give young players the chance to play and work through struggles. After posting a 56 wRC+ across 156 plate appearances in 2025, Karros has been Colorado's primary third baseman in 2026 and responded by delivering a 107 wRC+ and .349 wOBA. Hidden underneath his struggles last year was some decent plate discipline, but that was overshadowed by his passivity at pitches inside the zone. So far in 2026, he's increased his zone swing rate by three percentage points. That's led to an improved overall contact rate and an improvement in the quality of that contact. Interestingly, Karros has also produced nearly as well on the road as at home, giving him a boost in value over many other Rockies' hitters.
As for his real-life value to the team, Karros ranks third in WAR behind only Hunter Goodman and TJ Rumfield, and has likely done enough to earn a true chance to stick at third base in 2027.
Projection: 6 HR, 38 R, 33 RBI, 5 SB, .243 BA in 341 PA
2026 Line: 14 HR, 54 R, 51 RBI, 3 SB, .263 BA in 473 PA
Young was a top prospect who had a disappointing debut in 2025. He's put together a solid 2026 campaign, but he doesn't seem to be getting the expected recognition. The most interesting thing about his breakout is the change in his batted ball profile. He was primarily a line drive and groundball hitter in the minors, yet has a 41.1 percent fly ball rate across the first 726 plate appearances of his career.
His barrel rate is unremarkable and hasn't improved, but he has taken a step forward in his quality of contact. Specifically, he's cut out a significant amount of weak contact, and he's been able to optimize the hard contact he does make to a high pulled fly ball rate. Despite having a tough home park, his profile has translated to T-Mobile Park as he has a .156 ISO and 120 wRC+.
Projection: 17 HR, 48 R, 54 RBI, 2 SB, .256 BA in 391 PA
2026 Line: 20 HR, 51 R, 49 RBI, 4 SB, .261 BA in 422 PA
Caglianone is a tricky evaluation because much of his production came during a scorching June, during which he hit nine of his 20 home runs. He's otherwise resembled a league-average hitter, but he has indisputably taken a big step forward in his second season.
There's also not much ambiguity about his calling card to accrue fantasy value. Caglianone is a pure power hitter, and he's displayed that this season by ranking in the 90th percentile or better in average exit velocity, xSLG and hard-hit percentage. His 13.8 percent barrel rate and 116.1 mph max exit velocity also illustrate the pure power in his bat. A 26.5 percent strikeout rate similarly shows the variance in his profile, but Caglianone has shown that he can be, at worst, a streaky power hitter comparable to Jo Adell, but with the upside to be significantly better.
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Fallers
Projection: 10 HR, 56 R, 53 RBI, 20 SB, .267 BA in 479 PA
2026 Line: 6 HR, 55 R, 34 RBI, 13 SB, .265 BA in 428 PA
The expectation was that Keaschall would chip in across all five fantasy categories, even if he wasn't elite in any. The positive is that he has proven the ability to get on base consistently, which has led to 13 stolen bases and 55 runs scored across 109 games. That's where the good news ends, and even his stolen base total comes with the caveat that he's been caught five times (72 percent success).
Keaschall was never projected to be a power hitter, but his quality of contact has gone from subpar to among the worst among qualified hitters. His 84.7 mph average exit velocity is better than only seven other hitters, and his max exit velocity is better than only 20 qualified hitters. That makes his relatively high fly ball rate this season particularly perplexing and concerning. Keaschall's BABIP has dipped from .340 to .300 this season, and his batting average has taken a comparable fall thanks to the easy fly ball outs he's provided opposing pitchers.
Importantly, Keaschall's performance has also affected his standing with the team. He began the season hitting third and has moved down the lineup as the season has progressed, and he's now hit higher than sixth in the order only once since May 20.
Projection: 20 HR, 72 R, 75 RBI, 9 SB, .263 BA in 603 PA
2026 Line: 9 HR, 40 R, 37 RBI, 5 SB, .206 BA in 397 PA
Tovar was featured as one of the biggest busts at the All-Star break, but no further analysis was offered. He had a down season in 2025, but it was easy to write off his struggles due to an injury-plagued season. He's now turned in an identical line from a counting stat perspective, but his batting average has cratered to .205.
The worst parts of Tovar's skills profile have gotten more extreme. Tovar has consistently had a poor chase rate, but he has a career-high 44.7 percent O-Swing percentage rate. Similarly, he has a first percentile chase rate. That has unsurprisingly been the catalyst for his poor production, but the problem is that his quality of contact hasn't made up for the shortcomings in his profile as it has in the past.
