MLB Barometer: 2027 ADP Observations

The Too Early Meatball Draft has become an annual tradition thanks to Rob DiPietro and a group of some of the better fantasy drafters around. While far from dispositive regarding ADP in 2027, this is our first look at what drafts could look like. Plenty of analysis of the drafts is already available, but the focus of this article will be less about what individual teams did and more on players who have risen or fallen significantly since 2026 drafts.

Some of the more obvious risers or fallers have been covered in recent editions of the Barometer and will not appear again. Examples include Freddy Peralta and Paul Skenes.  

Risers

Jordan Walker (2027 Draft Position: 11th overall, 2026 ADP: 363)

Walker being drafted this early is jarring based on what he displayed his first three seasons in the majors, but that doesn't make his selection at 11th overall unsound. Given the fairly significant sample Walker had entering the 2026 campaign, it was easy to forget his pedigree as one of the top prospects in all of baseball and the fact that he was only 24 years old.

That background makes his progress compelling, particularly after considering his work this offseason. Walker went to Driveline this offseason, which looks to have unlocked that pedigree, but not in the same way as for many hitters who have worked with the company. As Driveline itself laid out, Walker was already plenty capable of making hard contact and had strong bat speed. Instead, his bat path was the primary focus, and the rewards of that offseason work are evident. He has improved his launch angle sweet spot percentage from the fifth to 54th percentile and his ideal attack angle from 47.7 to 49.8 percent from last season to the present.

Put simply, it appears that Walker has found the way to convert his obvious raw skills into production. There have been other clearer changes, as Walker has also lowered his strikeout rate to 24.1 percent while becoming a mainstay in the top-third of the Cardinals' lineup and has the athleticism and speed to remain a contributor on the basepaths.

Miguel Vargas (2027 Draft Position: 31, 2026 ADP: 278)

Vargas' path to a breakout is more of what we've gotten used to in the Statcast era. Entering the 2026 season, Vargas had fast swing rates of just 8.3 and 11.7 percent in the first two years that data was publicly available. In 2026, that number has jumped to 43.8 percent. All of his quality of contact metrics have taken a similar expected jump, highlighted by a 14.9 percent barrel rate and a max exit velocity of 112.9 mph – more than two ticks greater than his previous career high.

Vargas was already doing other things well to maximize his power, most notably posting elite pulled air rates and very high overall fly-ball rates. That combination has led to a power breakout.

His ability to control the strike zone and make consistent contact combine to ensure his batting average hasn't cratered, making him a four-category contributor without being an overwhelming negative in any area.

Curtis Mead (2027 draft position: 150, 2026 ADP: 489)

Mead is a key breakout of 2026, posting a .246 ISO across 329 plate appearances. The primary story of his career prior to this year was his limitation to a small-side platoon role. His time in Washington began the same way, but he eventually earned a full-time role after the demotion of Brady House. Mead used that time to prove he is capable of hitting right-handed pitching, posting a .262 average with 13 homers, 32 RBI and 31 runs scored across 53 games after initially earning everyday playing time.

The Red Sox went on to acquire Mead at a hefty price at the trade deadline, which should secure his role in 2027. Mead's showing in the postseason sets up to have an out-sized impact on his ADP because there will be minimal regular-season sample of production at Fenway Park.  

Zack Gelof (2027 Draft Position: 130, 2026 ADP: 488)

Gelof was an afterthought to begin the season after failing to make the A's roster out of spring training. After spending the majority of his season in the majors, however, he looks to have regained his standing within the organization and has certainly captured the attention of fantasy managers by delivering fairly effectively across all five categories.

The sustainability of that production is a different discussion, and it's difficult to reach a clear conclusion. Gelof looks to be something of a poor man's version of Walker. He's improved the path of his swing and his bat speed, but his quality of contact metrics haven't yet followed. That's an explanation for his underwhelming expected stats, but his outlook for 2027 will depend on an individual fantasy manager's belief in his ability to continue to translate his raw power profile into production.

The other notable portion of Gelof's profile is his home/road splits. Like many A's hitters, he is far more productive at home than on the road. That's another wrinkle to consider when assessing his value for 2027.

Logan Henderson (2027 draft position: 84,2026 ADP: 314 /Kyle Harrison (2027 draft position: 86, 2026 ADP: 433)

The Brewers' ability to either churn out elite pitchers of their own or resurrect the careers of players other teams have given up on is becoming unparalleled. Henderson's skills were less of a question, but his role and ability to handle innings was certainly unclear. For most of the season, that was a legitimate concern. Of his first nine outings, Henderson worked more than 5.0 innings only three times and reached 6.0 innings just once. In his three most recent appearances, Henderson has worked 6.0, 6.1 and 7.0 innings. Including his work in the minors, and accounting for a few appearances in the playoffs, Henderson should comfortably reach at least 130 innings in 2026. That sets him up well for 2027.

Harrison has trended the opposite direction, posting a 4.61 ERA and 1.22 WHIP across his last nine starts and 41 innings. However, he still has a 49:10 K:BB in that span, suggesting he has run into some bad luck. If his results continue to worsen in the final month of the regular season and into the postseason, his ADP could fall heading into 2027. Even if that's the case, he has certainly landed himself on the fantasy radar in all formats.

Honorable Mentions: Chase DeLauter , Ezequiel Duran , Cade Cavalli , Cole Carrigg , Sam Antonacci

Check out where all the players on your fantasy baseball team fit into RotoWire's MLB Cheat Sheet!

Fallers

Mookie Betts (2027 draft position: 157, 2026 ADP: 56)/ Vladimir Guerrero (2027 draft position: 62, 2026 ADP: 18

Betts and Guerrero aren't comparable players, but they are grouped together for the purposes of this article because they have been stalwarts of the first two rounds for many years. Betts' ADP decline accelerated this draft season and is now continuing to trend down. He continues to make a lot of contact, and the quality of that contact is still well above average. That's reflected in his .274 xBA and .429 xSLG, marks in the 84th and 66th percentile, respectively. Given that and the context of the Dodgers' lineup, Betts' skills haven't declined as much as many likely would have imagined. The problem from a fantasy perspective is that Betts no longer runs, undercutting a lot of his contributions to past roto value. Nevertheless, this still looks to be a significant discount for an otherwise decent producer across the remaining four categories.

The more interesting fall was of Guerrero. His production has rarely matched his ADP throughout his career, but his work this season has been particularly poor. The issue looks to be one of plate discipline, specifically that Guerrero has chased more pitches out of the zone and a higher rate of his contact has come on pitches outside of the zone. The end result has been a cratering of his quality of contact and production. Even if he closes the campaign strong, Guerrero will come at a relative discount for the first time in his career in 2027, creating a nice buying opportunity for those fantasy managers still interested.

Corey Seager (2027 draft position: 166, 2026 ADP: 97)

Seager is comparable to Betts and Guerrero in that he has a lengthy track record of strong production, but he's also had a far steeper fall in production than either of that duo. The first strike against him is his lengthy injury history, and once again he's missed around nine weeks with a back injury and concussion so far this season.

He's held his ADP in the past due to his per-plate-appearance production, but even that has been underwhelming in 2026. A quick glance at his skills reveals a pretty clear explanation, as his strikeout rate has risen to a career-worst 24.7 percent clip, while each of his max exit velocity, fast-swing rate and hard-hit rate have also taken a tumble. Seager will be entering his age-33 season in 2027, and his injury history doesn't create much optimism for a potential bounce-back.

George Kirby (2027 Draft Position: 179, 2026 ADP: 71)

Kirby has had a second consecutive subpar season by his standards, but he took several concerning steps back in 2026. That's reflected in his draft price for 2027. The discourse surrounding home/road splits for Mariners pitchers has centered around Bryan Woo, but Kirby has had relatively severe splits in each of the last two seasons.

However, the bigger concern is that Kirby has become clearly more hittable. He continues to have elite control from both a walk rate, zone percentage and Location +, but that has perhaps made him too predictable. Hitters have remained similarly aggressive when swinging at pitches inside the zone, but the in-zone contact rate against Kirby has increased to a career-worst 87.8 percent (36th among 105 pitchers with at least 100 IP). That's reflected in his strikeout rate and WHIP, the latter of which has also skyrocketed to 1.36 this season.

Honorable Mentions: Paul Skenes , Freddy Peralta