Similarly to last week, we'll use a pretty straightforward method to identify risers and fallers in this week's Barometer. Dating back to June 15, I sorted some of the best and worst starting pitchers as measured by K percentage, K-BB percentage and SIERA. The pitchers who appear in this article aren't necessarily the best or worst in any of those metrics, but they are notable and relevant fantasy names who have either found success or fallen into a difficult stretch after pitching well to begin the season/in recent seasons.
Risers
By his literal deployment, Seymour remains a swingman in the Rays' pitching staff, having technically started neither of his last two appearances. However, he's functioned much more as a starter of late, working at least 5.0 innings in five of his last eight outings.
He also should be earning the trust of the Rays in the expanded role. Across his last six innings reaching at least four innings pitched, Seymour has accrued an impressive 42:4 K:BB across 33.2 innings. He's also shown an improved ability to maintain his velocity, which has ticked up between 1.0 and 1.5 mph since he first transitioned to a more traditional starter's workload.
Even after the addition of Freddy Peralta, Seymour should have the chance to maintain this increased workload due to the unfortunate injury to Shane McClanahan.
Melton's season-long numbers are pristine, yet still undersell the pitcher that he has proven to be in some key ways. For
Similarly to last week, we'll use a pretty straightforward method to identify risers and fallers in this week's Barometer. Dating back to June 15, I sorted some of the best and worst starting pitchers as measured by K percentage, K-BB percentage and SIERA. The pitchers who appear in this article aren't necessarily the best or worst in any of those metrics, but they are notable and relevant fantasy names who have either found success or fallen into a difficult stretch after pitching well to begin the season/in recent seasons.
Risers
By his literal deployment, Seymour remains a swingman in the Rays' pitching staff, having technically started neither of his last two appearances. However, he's functioned much more as a starter of late, working at least 5.0 innings in five of his last eight outings.
He also should be earning the trust of the Rays in the expanded role. Across his last six innings reaching at least four innings pitched, Seymour has accrued an impressive 42:4 K:BB across 33.2 innings. He's also shown an improved ability to maintain his velocity, which has ticked up between 1.0 and 1.5 mph since he first transitioned to a more traditional starter's workload.
Even after the addition of Freddy Peralta, Seymour should have the chance to maintain this increased workload due to the unfortunate injury to Shane McClanahan.
Melton's season-long numbers are pristine, yet still undersell the pitcher that he has proven to be in some key ways. For the season, he has a 23.1 percent strikeout rate. That suggests he is reliant on limiting quality of contact and otherwise avoiding mistakes, a risky way to be consistently fantasy relevant. However, those numbers are heavily influenced by Melton's first three starts of the year, when he struck out only 11 batters through 16.2 innings. Since, he has 51 strikeouts across 46.1 frames, good for a 28.2 percent strikeout rate.
There are undoubtedly other ways in which Melton has been on the right side of luck. He's benefited from a .195 BABIP and 94.7 percent left on-base rate, numbers that are entirely unsustainable for the full season. As always, the question is how extreme that regression will be, and in Melton's case there's reason to believe he'll still be fantasy relevant. Skill indicators such as xERA and SIERA that are heavily influenced by quality of contact and K-BB percentage, respectively, both believe in Melton. He has a 3.25 xERA and 4.01 SIERA for the season, though his SIERA has dropped to 3.44 in the span that he's increased his strikeout rate laid out above.
Rocker's career has been defined by ups and downs, and the recent sample isn't anything spectacular for him at first glance. He's allowed six earned runs or more in two of his seven outings since June 16, which is an obvious problem. In the remaining five starts, he's allowed two or fewer earned runs four times.
What's more compelling is that Rocker has a 20.1 K-BB percentage in that time period, leading to a fairly strong 1.19 WHIP. Key in that span is that Rocker has cut his walk rate roughly two percentage points from his most recent norms. There's also some reason to believe this change can stick thanks to a change in pitch mix. He's relied on his slider on his primary pitch for most of the season, but had been searching for the right combination of secondary offerings to find consistent success. He seems to have found that mix over the last six weeks. Perhaps that's just a new look that hitters haven't adjusted to yet, but Rocker has built momentum heading into the final two months of the regular season.
It wasn't particularly surprising that Cole started slowly in his return from Tommy John surgery, but it was fair to wonder if we'd ever see Cole near his peak form again. Through his first eight starts, Cole had a mediocre – at least by his standards – 22.8 percent strikeout rate and 1.20 WHIP. Things have shifted considerably more positively since, as he's delivered a dominant 32.3 percent strikeout rate and 0.91 WHIP in his last four starts.
Shaking off rust seems to be the true explanation in this case. Cole's velocity and pitch usage have all remained relatively consistent; the results have just improved. Given his pedigree and track record of success, it looks very reasonable to expect a big second half from Cole.
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Fallers
Bieber's surface results have stabilized in his last several starts, as he has allowed two or fewer earned runs in three of his last four starts – however, nearly every other sign points to trouble. Since he was activated from the injured list, both Bieber's velocity and control have been inconsistent, with his fastball velocity steadily creeping up across his first four starts before progressively moving the opposite direction in his last three outings.
The frequency of his passes have followed a similar pattern. He walked 10 batters across his first four starts and 17.2 innings, before walking only two hitters across his next 13 innings and two starts. Things ultimately unraveled in all areas in his last outing, when he managed to face only nine hitters while giving up four earned runs. Ultimately, he has just a 2.8 K-BB percentage in his seven-start sample, the lowest mark among all pitchers who have thrown at least 30 innings.
Brown returned from a shoulder injury at the start of this sample, and his control has remained uncharacteristically poor. In his seven starts, he has walked 5.4 batters per nine innings, or a walk rate of 14.0 percent. Unsurprisingly, that's led to an inflated WHIP and ERA.
If there is a silver lining, it's that Brown has slowly seen his velocity tick up as he's put his stint on the injured list further behind him. He also turned in his best outing of the season his last time on the mound, throwing seven shutout innings with a 7:0 K:BB. Brown has to be on the "fallers" list, but it does seem like a matter of time until he regains his predicted form.
Gausman has done significant damage to his fantasy manager's WHIP in the last six weeks, posting a 1.85 mark. A good portion of that is bad luck, as he's suffered from a .381 BABIP in that span. However, he's also created some of his own bad luck, walking 10.8 percent of the batters he's faced. Gausman also had a particularly poor stretch in terms of quality of contact, allowing a 13.1 percent barrel rate and average exit velocity of 92.4 in that span. That has since corrected, and he's posted a more palatable 15:6 K:BB in 15.1 innings across his last three outings.
Gausman looks to have a decent chance of turning things around, but the trade deadline could affect his outlook. He has been openly mentioned in trade talks and has acknowledged his time in Toronto could be short. A move could cut both ways. Rumors could be weighing on him and affecting his performance, so a trade may do him some good. On the other hand, it's clear he has a comfort level in Toronto, so moving to a new team could also have a negative effect. Those intangible factors are more difficult to predict, but there is a wide range of outcomes for Gausman in the final two months of the regular season. Editors' note: Gausman was traded from the Blue Jays to the Cubs on Sunday night in exchange for minor-league infielder Ty Southisene and outfielder Brett Bateman.
I originally had Braxton Ashcraft on this list, and he has struggled significantly in his last seven starts by posting a 5.73 ERA. However, he's still managed a 20.9 K-BB percentage in that span, paired with a 3.37 SIERA. Ashcraft has also far exceeded all preseason expectations, having returned $10 after being picked at an ADP of 217.
That leads us to Skenes, who has allowed at least four earned runs in half of his last eight outings. He's generated more strikeouts in that span (57 in 42.2 innings), but he's also simultaneously become far more hittable. He has a 1.48 WHIP, 9.2 percent barrel rate and 90.0 average exit velocity. Prior to this stretch of starts, he had an average exit velocity allowed of 87.4 mph and a 5.8 percent barrel rate. Much has been made of the lowered spin rate and velocity on his fastball, which also points to a potential injury.
