The NFL season kicks off tonight, and draft season has been at its peak for the last few weeks. Given that, it's certainly understandable even for very dedicated fantasy baseball managers to have their attention divided lately, so the goal of this article will be to catch subscribers up on some of the more intriguing pitching performances of the last several weeks. To increase the sample, I'll look back to the All-Star break for most stats referenced. The focus will be to look forward to 2027, considering many head-to-head leagues are already over, and only 2.5 weeks remain of the regular season.
Risers
Javier has been held back by serious injuries to his elbow and his shoulder the last several seasons, throwing only a combined 121.1 innings since 2024. His usage since returning from the injured list in early July has been equally inconsistent, with some usage as a traditional starter, some as a reliever and some as a bulk reliever.
Regardless of how he has entered the game, Javier has completed at least 4.0 innings in seven consecutive appearances dating back to July 27. In that span, he's maintained a 20.7 K-BB percentage and 1.23 WHIP. Javier has had a significant home run problem, inflating his ERA to 4.32. While that will need to be fixed for Javier to be a strong fantasy asset in 2027, there have been encouraging signs to back his improved and impressive K-BB percentage. Specifically, Javier has a walk rate of only 4.9
The NFL season kicks off tonight, and draft season has been at its peak for the last few weeks. Given that, it's certainly understandable even for very dedicated fantasy baseball managers to have their attention divided lately, so the goal of this article will be to catch subscribers up on some of the more intriguing pitching performances of the last several weeks. To increase the sample, I'll look back to the All-Star break for most stats referenced. The focus will be to look forward to 2027, considering many head-to-head leagues are already over, and only 2.5 weeks remain of the regular season.
Risers
Javier has been held back by serious injuries to his elbow and his shoulder the last several seasons, throwing only a combined 121.1 innings since 2024. His usage since returning from the injured list in early July has been equally inconsistent, with some usage as a traditional starter, some as a reliever and some as a bulk reliever.
Regardless of how he has entered the game, Javier has completed at least 4.0 innings in seven consecutive appearances dating back to July 27. In that span, he's maintained a 20.7 K-BB percentage and 1.23 WHIP. Javier has had a significant home run problem, inflating his ERA to 4.32. While that will need to be fixed for Javier to be a strong fantasy asset in 2027, there have been encouraging signs to back his improved and impressive K-BB percentage. Specifically, Javier has a walk rate of only 4.9 percent in the second half, and his Location+ this season sits at 103 – his highest mark since the 2022 season.
Finally, Javier's velocity has returned to 2022 levels, when he maintained a 2.54 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. Hoping those numbers return is ambitious and likely unrealistic, but Javier is carrying significant momentum into 2027, assuming he can avoid another arm injury.
Leahy has been in the news in the last few weeks because the Cardinals have publicly announced that they will limit his innings. They've followed through on that promise, so his sample is a bit skewed. Even after eliminating his last three outings, Leahy had a 1.91 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in six starts with a 28.1 K percentage and 1.6 BB percentage.
In the first half of the season, Leahy had made a relatively successful transition from a relief role to starting from the perspective of the team. He was able to complete at least 5.0 innings in 14 of his 18 starts and had a 7-4 record, filling a back-end rotation spot admirably. A 3.73 ERA and 1.41 WHIP paired with a 19.3 percent strikeout rate weren't appealing in most fantasy formats.
Like Javier, it's unrealistic to believe the second half Leahy can carry over for all of 2027, but he makes for a solid late-round pick in draft-and-hold formats. While limiting his innings completely cuts down his value for the rest of 2026, the Cardinals' actions indicate that he's a significant part of the team's future plans.
Nola has consistently had much better skill indicators than results, and there were indications he had run into bad luck for much of 2025 and the first half of the 2026 season. That luck has reversed in the last few months, as Nola has a .275 BABIP and 94.3 percent left-on-base rate since the All-Star break. That has led to a 3.10 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. His K-BB percentage and HR/9 are nearly identical to the first half, meaning his core skills have remained stagnant. Perhaps Nola deserved these good results and can be useful to fantasy managers down the stretch, but he doesn't look to be back to the vintage Nola whom fantasy managers had relied upon earlier in his career.
It has been a tale of two seasons for Painter. Things went about as badly as they could for him after he won an initial spot in the rotation. When he was demoted to Triple-A on June 17, Painter had a 7.06 ERA with a 9.7 K-BB percentage and a 1.94 HR/9. He certainly suffered from some bad luck in that span (.341 BABIP and 65.6 left on base rate), but there wasn't much redeeming to his performance as illustrated by his 5.22 xERA.
Since his return, he's shown increased trust in his fastball but also the ability to generate whiffs with both his sweeper and change-up. Painter has also been transparent about adjustments that he's made to his arsenal as well as continued changes that he hopes to deploy. Particularly, he's aimed to regain the drop he had on his fastball prior to his arm injuries, and he also ditched his slide in favor of a circle change-up. The latter pitch has been a key driver to his success in the second half, limiting hitters to a .147 xwOBA and .182 xSLG.
The end result has been a 3.12 ERA and 0.89 WHIP across 40.1 innings. Painter should be back on the radar for 2027 as he looks to be back on track to fulfill his prospect pedigree, though his ADP could surge if he is part of the Phillies' postseason rotation and continues his current form.
Smith hasn't had a remarkable fantasy debut simply due to his usage by the team, but his results should have fantasy managers' attention. He has completed 16.1 innings since having his contract selected, allowing only one earned run while posting a 23:10 K:BB. His walk rate is a concern on its face, but six of his 10 walks came in his first two major-league appearances. Since, he's had a more manageable 10.4 percent walk rate paired with an elite 35.4 percent strikeout rate. Smith's walk rate will be worth monitoring for the rest of the season and any potential postseason run, as it was also an issue during his minor-league career and could affect the White Sox's long-term plan for him. For now, he's delivered on his pedigree and could be a buzzy pick next spring.
Urena is far from a perfect pitcher, but he's shown the ability to limit hard contact at an elite rate in his first season in the majors. His sinker-heavy approach has led to an average launch angle of only 5.4 degrees, with a corresponding 54.9 percent walk rate. Given that high walk rate, it's hardly a surprise that he also has an elite barrel rate allowed. Urena also seems to do other small things well, such as greatly limiting his pulled fly-ball rate (12.1 percent).
If Urena had strong control, it would be easier to overlook his solid, but unspectacular, ability to generate whiffs. However, his control has been a weakness at every turn, including a 20/30 control grade on his Fangraphs scouting report, a high walk rate throughout his minor-league sample and now similar struggles in the majors. However, Urena is on this list because he's shown a minor improvement in that regard in the second half. His walk rate has dipped from 13.0 percent in the first half to 9.6 percent since the All-Star break. If he can carry that type of rate into 2027, he could be a deeper-league option and is certainly a name to keep in mind for draft-and-hold formats.
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