MLB Barometer: Risers and Fallers Since June 15

Sometimes simple is best. This column has historically had creative ways to identify risers and fallers, but this week we'll focus on some simple surface stats across the last month of games to create our player pool for the week. To account for the All-Star break, I set a filter for June 15 to July 22 to find hitters who have perhaps surprisingly excelled or struggled in certain surface stats.

Risers

Junior Caminero – 14 HR, 30 RBI, .313 average across his last 30 games

Caminero producing at an elite rate isn't a surprise at all, but the tear that he's currently on is still noteworthy. His 14 home runs in the span are three more than the next closest hitters. Nearly all of Caminero's quality of contact metrics are identical to last season, and they are all elite. If there's one thing to pick on, it's Caminero's low flyball rate and bloated infield flyball rate. That may be a concern as his career progresses, but needless to say, there's not much to complain about.   

One particularly positive change has been Caminero's ability to get on base. His walk rate has jumped from 6.3 percent to 12.9 percent, and his on-base percentage has spiked to .380. The obvious benefit is in leagues that use OBP rather than average as well as points leagues, but he's also projected to reach or narrowly surpass 100 runs scored by the most popular systems.

Dansby Swanson – hitting .281 since June 15

Swanson is an interesting evaluation because he's delivered the fantasy results managers would want in many ways. The most common projection systems have him topping 25 home runs and 20 stolen bases, and he could top both 90 RBI and runs scored for only the second time in his career.

The problem was that he was hitting just .179 through June 14. From June 15 forward, he's hit .281 while dropping his strikeout rate below 20 percent, which is backed by a .284 xBA. Swanson is roughly 80 percent rostered on formats such as CBS and Yahoo, so he isn't widely available, but he has the signs of being a key fantasy contributor down the stretch.

Manny Machado – hitting .275 since June 15

In some ways, the discussion for Machado is comparable to Swanson in that much of his production has looked good for the majority of the season. In fact, Machado could record his highest homer total since 2018.

There are some significant signs that Machado is on the downswing of his career, which isn't exactly a surprise considering he's nearly in his mid-30s. His quality of contact metrics are on the lower end of his career norms, and his strikeout rate is above 20 percent for only the second time in his career. On the other hand, he looks to have figured out things in the short term, smacking 10 home runs to go along with 20 runs scored and 25 RBI in his last 33 games.

Esmerlyn Valdez – 11 HR, 29 RBI in 114 career plate appearances

Valdez is the free square on the riser list, as he leads the league in ISO and slugging percentage in the last six weeks and his first several weeks in the majors. He's swinging the bat unsustainably well, highlighted by a 27.6 percent barrel. Valdez has also gotten away with a 36 percent strikeout rate, maintaining a .316 average due to his elite quality of contact. There will be regression, but the question is how far he will fall. Regardless, he'll be one of the more interesting players to watch in the final months of the season and into draft season.  

Caleb Durbin – .307 BA, 23 runs scored, six stolen bases

Durbin's season has followed the trajectory of the Red Sox, and his season-long numbers remain underwhelming. However, he's leaned into what made his profile as a prospect intriguing, most specifically a high contact rate and speed. Durbin's frame essentially guarantees that he's never going to be a player with a flashy barrel rate or max exit velocity, but he gets a ton of balls into play and lifts enough of them to at least get on base and make things happen from there.

While his skills profile is most conducive to scoring runs, stealing bases and hitting for a decent average, his high contact approach also makes it possible that he runs hot and is an elite contributor at times. The last six weeks have been one of those spans, as he's also chipped in a surprising seven home runs and 18 RBI. Don't count on the latter moving forward, but Durbin has reestablished himself as a part of the Red Sox's plans after looking like a potential washout earlier this season.

Find out who to target the rest of the way with RotoWire's MLB Rest of Season Projections!

Fallers

Jakob Marsee – .178 batting average, 11 runs scored, two stolen bases

Marsee was a tough evaluation because there was a significant gap between his production and evaluation as a prospect. After a very impressive debut in 2025, his lack of physical tools has started to show through. Marsee is hitting only .178 during the time of our sample for this article, pulling his average for the season below .200.

Unsurprisingly, that has led to two additional problems. Marsee began the season as Miami's primary leadoff hitter, but he hasn't hit from that position since June 28. He's now hitting primarily seventh in the order, which has further hurt both his stolen base and run-scoring potential.

Christian Walker – two HR, 10 runs scored, nine RBI

Walker had 16 home runs through May and generally looked to be in for an excellent season. As the numbers suggest, things have gone quite poorly since. Beginning on June 1, Walker struck out at a 29.1 percent clip and he is hitting just .212 with minimal counting stat production. His quality of contact metrics have similarly completely disappeared, as he's posted just a 3.8 percent barrel rate, 34.9 percent hard-hit rate and 87.3 mph average exit velocity.  

There are mixed signals regarding Walker's future outlook. He hasn't shown clear signs of aging in terms of bat speed and pulled air rate, key metrics to determine a player's power potential. Conversely, he's hitting more groundballs than ever, and that combined with the inflated strikeout rate is a significant concern.

Cody Bellinger – one HR, 11 runs scored, seven RBI

Bellinger's season-long stats and pace don't look all that different from his career norms, but he's gotten in particularly poor form in the last month. He hasn't had elite quality of contact since 2019, but Bellinger's current 6.2 percent barrel rate is on the lower end of his typical range. Bellinger also hasn't barreled a ball since June 22.

Overall, Bellinger's outlook hasn't changed that much based on this recent downturn. He's still hitting either third or cleanup in the Yankees' lineup, and he makes enough contact to continue to pile up counting stats. One thing to monitor is Bellinger's early exit from Saturday's game due to a hamstring strain. The extent of the injury is unclear, but he was placed on the 10-day IL on Sunday.  

Jarren Duran – two HR, three stolen bases, .151 batting average

Like Bellinger, Duran has managed to paper over the deficiencies in his profile and earn $8, per the earned auction calculator. He's very likely to top both 20 homers and stolen bases, but his pace has slowed considerably due to a spiked strikeout rate, increased ground-ball rate and increased fly-ball rate.

The other problem is that Duran has been ineffective for the Red Sox. He has a 58 wRC+, .260 wOBA and a .593 OPS this season, and he's gone from primarily leading off to hitting seventh for the Red Sox in the last two weeks. Duran will likely remain a key part of the Red Sox's lineup due to his defense, but he has started to lose at-bats more consistently against left-handed pitching.