Looking for the best home run props today? Monday brings a lighter 12-game MLB slate with 24 teams in action.
None of today's five highest-scored hitters clear the model's own market-value check. The best price plays come from further down the board, headlined by three Diamondbacks hitters and two Mets hitters the model likes against tonight's starters.
Below are our top MLB home run predictions, the best model-versus-market values, and my favorite home run bet for Monday, August 31.
Best Home Run Predictions Today
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. Home Run Prop vs. Brady Singer
Tatis grades Strong at 6.6, with a 19.5% probability and +413 fair odds — the top score on Monday's slate.
He's barreling 18.1% of his batted balls and averaging 93.1 mph off the bat over the past month, though exit velocity has dipped in the last couple weeks. Singer throws his slider 26% of the time, Tatis's best matchup pitch, but he's shown real trouble against sinkers, which make up half of Singer's mix.
+343 at Kalshi falls 5.9 percentage points short of the model's consensus threshold.
RotoBombs Fair Odds: +413 (19.5%)Best Available Odds: +343 at Kalshi
2. Pete Alonso Home Run Prop vs. Tanner Gordon
Alonso grades Strong at 6.5, with a 19.2% probability and +422 fair odds.
A 20.8% barrel rate and 95.3-mph average exit velocity over the past month is elite contact, even with exit velocity cooling slightly in recent weeks. Gordon throws his fastball 43% of the time, Alonso's best matchup pitch. Coors Field's usual carry gets undercut tonight by a 14-mph wind blowing in from center.
The price is the widest miss on the board. +248 at Kalshi sits 11.6 percentage points below the model's threshold.
RotoBombs Fair Odds: +422 (19.2%)Best Available Odds: +248 at Kalshi
3. Juan Soto Home Run Prop vs. Ian Seymour
Soto grades Strong at 6.3, with a 18.8% probability and +432 fair odds.
His contact quality hasn't budged all month — 16.7% barrels and 97.8-mph average exit velocity, both base and recent windows identical. Seymour leans on his changeup 30% of the time, Soto's best matchup pitch, though Seymour's fastball at 28% usage is a modest offsetting factor.
+386 at Kalshi misses the model's threshold by 3.2 percentage points.
RotoBombs Fair Odds: +432 (18.8%)Best Available Odds: +386 at Kalshi
4. Jackson Merrill Home Run Prop vs. Brady Singer
Merrill grades Strong at 6.3, with a 18.7% probability and +434 fair odds.
His exit velocity is solid at 93.6 mph, though his barrel rate has cooled to 8% over the last few weeks from a 13.4% base. Singer's slider-heavy approach lines up with Merrill's damage zone, but he carries the same sinker vulnerability as his teammate Tatis above.
+363 at Kalshi falls 5.0 percentage points short of the model's threshold.
RotoBombs Fair Odds: +434 (18.7%)Best Available Odds: +363 at Kalshi
5. Kody Clemens Home Run Prop vs. Jackson Jobe
Clemens grades Lean-plus at 6.2, with a 18.5% probability and +439 fair odds.
His recent form is trending the right way — 12% barrels and 93.6 mph exit velocity over the last few weeks, up from a 90.6-mph base. Jobe throws his fastball 36% of the time, Clemens's best matchup pitch by a wide margin at 7.0 points above his own baseline. Target Field's wind is blowing out to right at 7 mph tonight, adding a moderate boost.
+405 at Polymarket misses the model's threshold by 3.3 percentage points.
RotoBombs Fair Odds: +439 (18.5%)Best Available Odds: +405 at Polymarket
Best +EV Home Run Props Today
RotoBombs compares each hitter's projected home run probability with the sportsbook market's consensus probability. A positive edge means the model believes the market is undervaluing that hitter — not simply that one sportsbook is hanging a bigger number.
None of the slate's five highest-scored hitters clear that threshold today. Here are the best values on the board:
| Player | Matchup | RotoBombs Score | Best Odds | Model Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Tawa | vs. PHI | 5.7 | +910 at DraftKings | +6.5 pts |
| Corbin Carroll | vs. PHI | 5.6 | +559 at Prophet X | +0.7 pts |
| Luis Torrens | vs. TB | 5.6 | +900 at FanDuel | +6.8 pts |
| Luis Robert Jr. | vs. TB | 5.6 | +539 at Polymarket | +0.2 pts |
| Luis Campusano | vs. CIN | 5.1 | +770 at Novig | +3.4 pts |
| Lars Nootbaar | vs. PHI | 5.1 | +669 at Novig | +1.8 pts |
Tim Tawa owns the best combination of score and value on the board. His +910 price at DraftKings is 6.5 percentage points better than the market consensus and carries a projected return of roughly 73 cents per dollar risked — the largest edge of the six.
Two of Tawa's Arizona teammates also clear the threshold in the same game: Corbin Carroll and Lars Nootbaar both get a share of the same matchup against Aaron Nola. Luis Torrens and Luis Robert Jr. do the same on the Mets side of the Rays game, giving those two matchups four of the six best prices on the board between them.
Other MLB Home Run Picks to Consider
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies (Aaron Nola)
Tim Tawa, Corbin Carroll and Lars Nootbaar (all above) give Arizona three hitters clearing the model's value check against Nola tonight. Chase Field's roof is projected closed with temperatures near 96 degrees, so the carry boost here is coming from the matchup and Nola's recent hard-contact issues, not the ballpark.
Padres at Reds (Brady Singer)
Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill (both above) lead this group on raw score, and Luis Campusano joins them as the value play at +770 at Novig. All three Padres hitters face the same sinker-heavy Singer mix, though Tatis and Merrill's prices don't clear the model's threshold the way Campusano's does.
Mets at Rays (Ian Seymour)
Luis Torrens and Luis Robert Jr. (both above) are the two value plays in this game. Torrens is the steadier profile against Seymour's changeup-heavy approach, while Robert Jr. brings the better raw power and the hotter recent form of the two.
My Favorite Home Run Bet Today
Tim Tawa to hit a home run at +910 at DraftKings is my favorite bet on Monday's slate.
Tawa checks the boxes that matter: the best score of anyone clearing the model's value threshold tonight, the largest market edge on the board, and a hitter whose recent contact is trending up — a 20% barrel rate and 93.4-mph average exit velocity over the last few weeks, both ahead of his own season baseline. The specific pitch-matchup edge against Nola isn't overwhelming on its own, but the price is generous enough relative to the model's overall read that it's still the best number on the slate.
Luis Torrens offers a similarly large edge in a different game for bettors who want to spread the exposure.
Use the RotoBombs Home Run Props Tool
Use RotoBombs to compare MLB home run predictions, fair odds and sportsbook prices for every hitter on the slate. Add any player to My HR Picks, enter the odds available at your sportsbook and the tool will calculate the edge for that specific bet.
Our daily home run picks are free. A RotoWire All-Access membership also includes fantasy football tools, the Fantasy Football Draft Kit and the DFS lineup optimizer. Pair it with ProBets to track your home run props, NFL bets and DFS action in one place.
Today's Full MLB Slate
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Starting Pitchers | Lineup Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF at ATL | 6:05 p.m. | Anthony Molina vs. Bryce Elder | Projected |
| SD at CIN | 6:40 p.m. | Michael King vs. Brady Singer | Projected |
| NYM at TB | 6:40 p.m. | Robert Stock vs. Ian Seymour | Projected |
| MIA at WSH | 6:45 p.m. | Ryan Gusto vs. Will Dion | Projected |
| SEA at BOS | 6:45 p.m. | George Kirby vs. Payton Tolle | Projected |
| DET at MIN | 7:40 p.m. | Jackson Jobe vs. Taj Bradley | Projected |
| MIL at CHC | 7:40 p.m. | Kyle Harrison vs. Clay Holmes | Projected |
| ATH at TEX | 8:05 p.m. | Gage Jump vs. Jacob deGrom | Projected |
| CWS at HOU | 8:10 p.m. | Anthony Kay vs. Peter Lambert | Projected |
| BAL at COL | 8:40 p.m. | Kyle Bradish vs. Tanner Gordon | Projected |
| NYY at LAA | 9:38 p.m. | Elmer Rodriguez vs. Walbert Urena | Projected |
| PHI at AZ | 9:40 p.m. | Aaron Nola vs. Brandon Pfaadt | Projected |
"Projected" means MLB hasn't officially posted that lineup yet as of this writing — RotoBombs is running on our best estimate of tonight's order, not a confirmed card. For live confirmations, check RotoWire's MLB Daily Lineups page and MLB Weather page.
Responsible Gambling While Betting Home Run Props Today
It's important to remember to gamble responsibly. Our model provides home run predictions — not guarantees. RotoWire, along with the sportsbooks referenced in this article, are committed to promoting safe and responsible gambling. If you have any questions or concerns about your ability to gamble responsibly, please consider reaching out to the National Council for Problem Gambling (NCPG) or the International Center for Responsible Gaming (ICRG). Both organizations are dedicated to providing support and advocacy for individuals who may need it.
Must be 21+ and present in an eligible state to bet. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Terms and conditions apply. See each sportsbook for full offer details.
