Looking for the best home run predictions today? We've got 14 games on tonight's slate, and the RotoBombs board loves the matchup for Kansas City bats today. No lineups are posted yet this early in the day, so treat all of this as the model's read on power and matchup, not a locked board.
Here's where our home run predictions model, RotoBombs, is pointing for Friday, August 14. Keep reading to see today's best matchups, and use the model for yourself.
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Home Run Predictions Today (August 14, 2026)
Betting on home runs isn't easy, and it's impossible to do it perfectly. So you stick to the same process every day: start with recent batted ball data and the matchup grade, then check whether the park and pitcher are adding to it or fighting against it.
Keep it simple and don't overcomplicate your system.
All picks and grades below come straight off today's live RotoBombs board; use the tool to copy bet, or use it to dig deeper on a player or game you're looking at. These are the players most likely to homer, based on power, matchup, and pitcher vulnerability.
These are the players most likely to homer. That doesn't mean they have the best value. We cover which batters carry the most value later in the article.
Don't forget! Check RotoWire's MLB Weather page for updates through first pitch.
1. Carter Jensen (KC) vs. Grayson Rodriguez (LAA)
Jensen tops today's board, an Elite 9.0 grade (25.6%, fair odds +291) against Angels righty Grayson Rodriguez -- the best grade we've handed out all week. RotoBombs flags a real four-seam edge, a "Rising L30" tag (his contact quality is climbing over his last 25 batted balls), and Rodriguez's four-seam has gotten barreled up more than most righties' this year. To top it all off, Jensen is batting leadoff tonight, which only helps his expected at-bats.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +291 (25.6% probability)
2. Jac Caglianone (KC) vs. Grayson Rodriguez (LAA)
Caglianone grades out Elite (8.6, 24.5%, +308), the second of four Royals in today's top five. RotoBombs flags a real changeup edge and a "True Power" tag — this is season-grade talent, not a small-sample spike — even with a four-seam trouble flag attached. Batting 3rd tonight.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +308 (24.5%)
3. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) vs. George Kirby (SEA)
Alvarez checks in Elite (8.5, 24.3%, +311) against Mariners righty George Kirby, RotoBombs pointing to elite underlying power, elite bat speed, and a four-seam edge — his damage against the pitch runs nearly 4 points above his own baseline. The only top-five name tonight that isn't a Royal.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +311 (24.3%)
4. Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) vs. Grayson Rodriguez (LAA)
The third Royal in the top four — Witt grades out Elite (8.3, 23.8%, +320) on the same four-seam edge against Rodriguez, elite bat speed leading the way. Batting 2nd tonight, ahead of Caglianone.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +320 (23.8%)
5. Munetaka Murakami (CWS) vs. Jackson Jobe (DET)
Murakami grades out Elite (8.3, 23.7%, +321) against Tigers youngster Jackson Jobe on elite exit velocity, elite barrel rate, and a "True Power" tag.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +321 (23.7%)
Today's Home Run Props with the Best Edge (+EV)
Our +EV home run tool not only gives you a tool to get an edge against the sportsbook, it also finds hitters priced 150+ points shorter than their usual RotoBombs odds, where "usual" is the player's talent-only price based on season-long batted-ball data. It surfaces players whose edge comes from today's slate — the pitcher, the matchup, the park, the weather — rather than raw power alone.
Here's a look at the guys with the sharpest EV compared to their usual odds AND their consensus odds at the most popular sportsbooks.
Note: Jensen tops this list, but we won't add him twice. Just know he's a rare case of the model's favorite to go yard AND the best +EV home run bet, based on our odds.
- Cam Smith (HOU) – +23.1% EV
- Usual Odds: +634
- Today's Odds: +454
- Sportsbook Odds: +582
- Jesus Sanchez (TOR) – +13.4% EV
- Usual Odds: +622
- Today's Odds: +439
- Sportsbook Odds: +511
- Salvador Perez (KC) – +8.9% EV
- Usual Odds: +725
- Today's Odds: +393
- Sportsbook Odds: +437
Want to run this on any pick yourself, against real sportsbook odds instead of our own board history? Add the name to your My HR Picks list in the live tool, type in the price your book is offering, and it'll calculate your actual edge in points and dollars on the spot.
Other MLB Home Run Picks Today: My Favorite Pivots
- The entire Royals lineup vs. Grayson Rodriguez (KC @ LAA, Angel Stadium) — all nine hitters in tonight's projected order show real edge against Rodriguez, five of them Strong tier or better. Rodriguez had a nice start last time out, but it's been overwhelmingly bad otherwise from the former top prospect. This is as lopsided a team-vs-pitcher matchup as RotoBombs has flagged this week. If John Rave makes the lineup, he's flagged as one of our top +EV home run predictions today.
- The Padres' pair vs. Gavin Williams (SD @ CLE, Progressive Field) — Jackson Merrill and Fernando Tatis Jr. both grade Lean-tier against Williams tonight, two bats off the same lineup card leaning on the same vulnerable arm. These are two red-hot bats, too.
- Ben Rice (NYY vs. TOR, Rogers Centre) — Grades Strong (6.5, +416) against Blue Jays righty Shane Bieber, the highest-graded name tonight outside the Royals-Alvarez-Murakami group already covered above. Rice hammers right-handed pitching, and Bieber has been vulnerable to the long ball since his return.
My Favorite Home Run Prop Bet Today
I'm on Yordan Alvarez today. The Royals stack is the story, and the data backs it up six ways, but I'd rather bet the one Elite grade on the board that isn't riding on Kansas City's entire projected order holding up exactly as expected.
Alvarez is going to hit regardless of where he lands, and elite power plus elite bat speed against a pitcher he's already got a real four-seam edge on is as clean a matchup as there is tonight — even if it doesn't clear our own +EV bar.
Use Our MLB Home Run Betting Tool
Check out RotoBombs & our HR tracker below. Use it to research, or trust the process and bet on the model's favorites every day.
Get More Than Just Home Run Props Today
Our home run picks above are free, every day -- that's the deal. If you want the rest of what RotoWire runs, a RotoWire All-Access membership bundles in our NFL fantasy tools (like the Fantasy Football Draft Kit) and DFS lineup builder, which matters right about now: training camps are open and the season's closing in fast, so this is exactly the stretch where getting a head start on draft prep pays off. Pair it with ProBets if you're betting these home run props tonight and want the same account tracking your NFL and DFS action once the fall slate opens up.
Today's Full MLB Slate
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Starting Pitchers | Lineup Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| STL @ CHC | 2:20 PM | Matthew Liberatore vs. Clay Holmes | Projected (real order) |
| MIA @ CIN | 6:10 PM | Sandy Alcantara vs. Chase Burns | Projected (real order) |
| BOS @ PIT | 6:40 PM | Jake Bennett vs. Bubba Chandler | Projected (real order) |
| CWS @ DET | 6:40 PM | Sean Newcomb vs. Jackson Jobe | Projected (real order) |
| WSH @ NYM | 7:10 PM | Andrew Alvarez vs. Robert Stock | Projected (real order) |
| SD @ CLE | 7:10 PM | Michael King vs. Gavin Williams | Projected (real order) |
| BAL @ TB | 7:10 PM | Chris Bassitt vs. Steven Matz | Projected (real order) |
| AZ @ ATL | 7:15 PM | Brandon Pfaadt vs. Chris Sale | Projected (real order) |
| NYY @ TOR | 7:15 PM | Gerrit Cole vs. Shane Bieber | Projected (real order) |
| SEA @ HOU | 8:10 PM | George Kirby vs. Peter Lambert | Projected (real order) |
| KC @ LAA | 9:38 PM | Seth Lugo vs. Grayson Rodriguez | Projected (real order) |
| TEX @ ATH | 9:40 PM | Kumar Rocker vs. Gage Jump | Projected (real order) |
| MIL @ LAD | 10:10 PM | Robert Gasser vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Projected (real order) |
| COL @ SF | 10:15 PM | Kyle Freeland vs. Landen Roupp | Projected (real order) |
"Projected (real order)" means we have today's actual projected batting order for every game, just not yet MLB's official confirmation. For that, check RotoWire's MLB Daily Lineups page and MLB Weather page.
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