Use our data-driven betting tool to find the best home run props for Friday, August 21. We're back with a full slate of 15 games after a slow night.
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Home Run Predictions Today (August 21, 2026)
Betting on home runs isn't easy, and it's impossible to do it perfectly. So you stick to the same process every day: start with recent batted ball data and the matchup grade, then check whether the park and pitcher are adding to it or fighting against it.
Keep it simple and don't overcomplicate your system.
All picks and grades below come straight off today's live RotoBombs board; use the tool to copy bet, or use it to dig deeper on a player or game you're looking at. These are the players most likely to homer, based on power, matchup, and pitcher vulnerability — not a value or edge ranking. See the Best Edge section below for that.
Don't forget! Check RotoWire's MLB Weather page for updates through first pitch.
1. Miguel Vargas (CWS) vs. Sean Manaea (NYM)
- RotoBombs Grade: 7.3
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +368
- Best Sportsbook Odds: +329
Vargas is the top score on the whole board tonight, and it's not close. He's been putting a charge into the ball all month — an 11.9% barrel rate and 91.6 mph average exit velocity — and Manaea throws his four-seam close to 39% of the time, which is exactly the pitch Vargas has been doing the most damage against. Manaea's also just been getting hit hard lately in general, which never hurts. The one real concern: Vargas has struggled against the sweeper, which shows up in Manaea's mix about 31% of the time. He's the model's Elite tier pick tonight at 21.3% to go deep.
2. Corey Seager (TEX) vs. Reid Detmers (LAA)
- RotoBombs Grade: 6.7
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +408
- Best Sportsbook Odds: +410
Seager has been barreling 14.3% of his batted balls and averaging 92.6 mph off the bat over the past month — genuinely elite contact quality. Detmers goes to his slider about a third of the time, and that's been Seager's best matchup pitch, worth nearly three points above his own damage baseline. Detmers has also been hit hard of late. Worth saying plainly: some stale headlines are floating around about a rehab assignment and cage work, but that was an old back issue — Seager's been activated and healthy since the end of July, and he hit a home run just last night. No red flags here. Model has him at 19.7% tonight, Strong tier.
3. Munetaka Murakami (CWS) vs. Sean Manaea (NYM)
- RotoBombs Grade: 6.4
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +430
- Best Sportsbook Odds: +339
Same game as Vargas, different kind of damage. Murakami's been the single hardest-hitting profile in this piece all week — a 23.5% barrel rate and 94 mph average exit velocity over the past month, even with a bit of a dip the last couple weeks. He mashes Manaea's four-seam specifically, and Manaea's been getting hit hard across the board recently. The counter is the sweeper again — Murakami's struggled against it, and it's about 31% of Manaea's arsenal. Murakami checks in Strong tier at 18.9%.
4. Matt Olson (ATL) vs. Jacob Misiorowski (MIL)
- RotoBombs Grade: 6.3
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +431
- Best Sportsbook Odds: +360
The only name in this top five with zero lineup uncertainty attached to it: Olson is batting third for Atlanta tonight in a confirmed, official lineup — first pitch is at 4:10 PM ET, hours ahead of the rest of the slate. He's been barreling 21.1% of his batted balls and averaging 91.4 mph off the bat over the past month, and Misiorowski leans on his four-seam nearly two-thirds of the time, which happens to be Olson's best matchup pitch by a wide margin. Strong tier, High confidence, 18.8% tonight — the most trustworthy profile of the five, even if it's not the single highest score on the board.
5. Cal Raleigh (SEA) vs. Matthew Boyd (CHC)
- RotoBombs Grade: 6.2
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +441
- Best Sportsbook Odds: +375
I'll be straight with you on this one: Raleigh's actual batting average this season is brutal — .156, no way around it — and he sat out Thursday to try to reset after going 0-for-August-in-a-hurry. But the power's been legitimately strong lately (16% barrel rate, 92.3 mph average exit velocity, his best stretch of contact all month), and Boyd's four-seam — almost half his pitch mix — happens to be Raleigh's best matchup pitch. Boyd's been giving up loud contact recently too. This is a swing-for-the-fences type pick, not a well-rounded one, and I want you going in with eyes open about the average. Lean tier, 18.5%.
Just missed the cut this time: Kyle Schwarber (PHI), who was in this slot on our earlier run this morning. His score (6.1 LEAN) and confidence (Low, since St. Louis still hasn't named a starter) both landed a notch below Olson's now-official profile, so he slides down to the pivots below rather than off the board entirely — he's still MLB's active home run leader and fully healthy.
Today's Home Run Props with the Best Edge (+EV)
RotoBombs pulls live home run prop odds in real time, compares them to model projections, and flags the value plays.
Today's slate is small, but it's loaded on value -- almost the entire top of the board clears our threshold, which doesn't happen often. There's a strong chance these lines close more as the day goes on, too.
- Jake Mangum: best odds +1940 → +901 per model
- Christian Koss: best odds +1600 → +818 per model
- Chase Meidroth: best odds +1080 → +630 per model
Want to run this on a specific bet you're looking at? Add the name to your My HR Picks list in the live tool and type in the price your sportsbook is actually offering — it'll calculate your real edge against that number, separate from this self-contained view.
Want to run this on a specific bet you're looking at? Add the name to your My HR Picks list in the live tool and type in the price your sportsbook is actually offering — it'll calculate your real edge against that number, separate from this self-contained view.
Other MLB Home Run Picks Today: My Favorite Pivots
- Angel Genao (CLE) vs. Tanner Gordon (COL) — the widest odds gap on the board (see above), confirmed in Cleveland's expected lineup tonight, but a genuinely thin power sample, so size your confidence accordingly.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +488
- Sportsbook Best Odds: +630
- Colson Montgomery (CWS) vs. Sean Manaea (NYM) — a third bat from that CWS-NYM game worth knowing about. Manaea's been getting hit hard across the board lately, and Montgomery's got real sinker damage in his profile.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +465
- Sportsbook Best Odds: +420
- Ben Rice (NYY) vs. Mason Fluharty (TOR) — Fluharty leans on the cutter close to half the time, and that's Rice's best pitch. Yankee Stadium's short porch only helps his case, and he's confirmed in the lineup as DH tonight.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +492
- Sportsbook Best Odds: +370
- Francisco Alvarez (NYM) vs. Sean Burke (CWS) — Burke's been getting hit hard recently, and Alvarez's power (14.6% barrel rate, 89 mph average exit velo) plays up against his sinker specifically.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +483
- Sportsbook Best Odds: +475
- Pete Alonso (BAL) vs. Freddy Peralta (TB) — the best raw month of contact in this whole pivots group (18.8% barrel rate, 95.7 mph average exit velocity), and Peralta's four-seam — over half his pitches — is exactly what Alonso does his damage against.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +497
- Sportsbook Best Odds: +317
My Favorite Home Run Bet Today
I'm going with Miguel Vargas. He's the highest-graded bat on the slate for a reason, with a strong matchup against Sean Manaea in a home run-friendly park. He's got strong season-long and L15 day data against the two pitches the southpaw throws most, suggesting he's the most likely player to hit a home run today. Why fight the simple stuff? I'm taking the rising White Sox RHH.
Want more of this? RotoWire All-Access gets you the full lineup optimizer and matchup tools behind everything above, every single day of the season.
Today's Full MLB Slate
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Starting Pitchers | Lineup Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL @ MIL | 4:10 PM | Chris Sale vs. Jakob Misiorowski | Official |
| STL @ PHI | 6:40 PM | Hunter Dobbins vs. Jesús Luzardo | Projected |
| TOR @ NYY | 7:05 PM | Mason Fluharty vs. Cam Schlittler | Projected |
| SF @ BOS | 7:10 PM | Logan Webb vs. Sonny Gray | Projected |
| WSH @ MIA | 7:10 PM | Brad Lord vs. Ryan Gusto | Projected |
| TB @ BAL | 7:15 PM | Freddy Peralta vs. Trevor Rogers | Projected |
| NYM @ CWS | 7:40 PM | Sean Manaea vs. Sean Burke | Projected |
| DET @ KC | 8:10 PM | Troy Melton vs. Noah Cameron | Projected |
| ATH @ HOU | 8:10 PM | J.T. Ginn vs. Hayden Wesneski | Projected |
| LAA @ TEX | 8:15 PM | Reid Detmers vs. MacKenzie Gore | Projected |
| CLE @ COL | 8:40 PM | Joey Cantillo vs. Tanner Gordon | Projected |
| MIN @ SD | 9:40 PM | Connor Prielipp vs. Joe Musgrove | Projected |
| CIN @ ARI | 9:40 PM | Nick Lodolo vs. Eduardo Rodríguez | Projected |
| CHC @ SEA | 10:10 PM | Matthew Boyd vs. Emerson Hancock | Projected |
| PIT @ LAD | 10:10 PM | Bubba Chandler vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Projected |
"Projected" means MLB hasn't officially posted that lineup yet as of this writing — RotoBombs is running on our best estimate of tonight's order, not a confirmed card. For live confirmations, check RotoWire's MLB Daily Lineups page and MLB Weather page.
Use Our MLB Home Run Betting Tool
Check out RotoBombs & our HR tracker below. Use it to research, or trust the process and bet on the model's favorites every day.
Our home run picks above are free, every day -- that's the deal. If you want the rest of what RotoWire runs, a RotoWire All-Access membership bundles in our NFL fantasy tools (like the Fantasy Football Draft Kit) and DFS lineup builder, which matters right about now: training camps are open and the season's closing in fast, so this is exactly the stretch where getting a head start on draft prep pays off. Pair it with ProBets if you're betting these home run props tonight and want the same account tracking your NFL and DFS action once the fall slate opens up.
You can also use our tool in more ways than just seeing who's most likely to hit a home run today. You can filter by game, EV+ and more.
Today's Full MLB Slate
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Starting Pitchers | Lineup Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL @ MIL | 4:10 PM | Chris Sale vs. Jakob Misiorowski | Official |
| STL @ PHI | 6:40 PM | Hunter Dobbins vs. Jesús Luzardo | Projected |
| TOR @ NYY | 7:05 PM | Mason Fluharty vs. Cam Schlittler | Projected |
| SF @ BOS | 7:10 PM | Logan Webb vs. Sonny Gray | Projected |
| WSH @ MIA | 7:10 PM | Brad Lord vs. Ryan Gusto | Projected |
| TB @ BAL | 7:15 PM | Freddy Peralta vs. Trevor Rogers | Projected |
| NYM @ CWS | 7:40 PM | Sean Manaea vs. Sean Burke | Projected |
| DET @ KC | 8:10 PM | Troy Melton vs. Noah Cameron | Projected |
| ATH @ HOU | 8:10 PM | J.T. Ginn vs. Hayden Wesneski | Projected |
| LAA @ TEX | 8:15 PM | Reid Detmers vs. MacKenzie Gore | Projected |
| CLE @ COL | 8:40 PM | Joey Cantillo vs. Tanner Gordon | Projected |
| MIN @ SD | 9:40 PM | Connor Prielipp vs. Joe Musgrove | Projected |
| CIN @ ARI | 9:40 PM | Nick Lodolo vs. Eduardo Rodríguez | Projected |
| CHC @ SEA | 10:10 PM | Matthew Boyd vs. Emerson Hancock | Projected |
| PIT @ LAD | 10:10 PM | Bubba Chandler vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Projected |
"Projected" means MLB hasn't officially posted that lineup yet as of this writing — RotoBombs is running on our best estimate of tonight's order, not a confirmed card. For live confirmations, check RotoWire's MLB Daily Lineups page and MLB Weather page.
Responsible Gambling While Betting Home Run Props Today
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