Looking for the best home run props today? Friday brings a full 15-game MLB slate, with all 30 teams in action and no doubleheaders.
Two matchups stand out in the latest RotoBombs model run. Fernando Tatis Jr. and Junior Caminero grade near the top of the board on opposite sides of Padres-Rays, while warm temperatures and a 9-mph wind blowing out create favorable home run conditions for Orioles-Athletics at Sutter Health Park.
Below are our top MLB home run predictions, the best model-versus-market values and my favorite home run bet for Friday, August 28.
Best Home Run Predictions Today
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. Home Run Prop vs. Shane McClanahan
Tatis shares the highest RotoBombs score on Friday's slate at 7.9, translating to a 22.8% home run probability and +338 fair odds.
The underlying contact backs it up. Tatis has produced a 20% barrel rate and 98.9-mph average exit velocity over the past month, both up from his season baselines of 18.7% and 95.7 mph. McClanahan throws his changeup 29% of the time, and it is comfortably Tatis' best pitch matchup.
There are two caveats: Tatis has struggled against curveballs, and his lineup spot is not yet confirmed. Still, +450 at BetMGM gives us the best combination of projection, recent form and price among the top-rated hitters.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +338 (22.8%)
- Best Available Odds: +450 at BetMGM
2. Jake Bauers Home Run Prop vs. Cody Bradford
Bauers is tied with Tatis atop the model at 7.9, with a 22.8% probability and +339 fair odds.
His recent contact has cooled — 12% barrels and an 89.5-mph average exit velocity over the past month — but the matchup keeps him near the top. Bradford throws his fastball roughly half the time, giving Bauers a modest pitch-level advantage, and the model also flags a fatigued Rangers bullpen.
The concern is Bradford's changeup, which he uses 36% of the time and Bauers has not handled well. +360 at BetMGM offers a small edge against the broader market, but this is thinner value than Tatis.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +339 (22.8%)
- Best Available Odds: +360 at BetMGM
3. Max Muncy Home Run Prop vs. Brandon Young
Muncy carries a 7.4 RotoBombs score, a 21.6% home run probability and +363 fair odds.
He has barreled 16% of his batted balls over the past month, and Young's fastball is the pitch Muncy damages most. The hitting environment adds another boost: temperatures are expected to reach 89 degrees at Sutter Health Park, with a 9-mph wind blowing out to center and an estimated 18-foot carry increase.
The projection is strong, but the price is not. +400 at BetMGM comes in below the model's market-consensus threshold. Muncy is one of today's best home run candidates, but not one of the best home run bets at the current number.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +363 (21.6%)
- Best Available Odds: +400 at BetMGM
4. Junior Caminero Home Run Prop vs. Casey Mize
Caminero grades just behind Tatis at 7.4, with a 21.5% probability and +365 fair odds.
His 96.5-mph average exit velocity over the past month remains loud, but his barrel rate has fallen to 4% from an 11.8% season baseline. Mize has been hit hard recently, though Caminero's individual pitch-mix advantage is modest.
The bigger problem is price. +323 at Kalshi is 4.9 percentage points below the model's consensus-beating threshold — the largest miss among Friday's top five projections. Caminero has the power profile, but this number is too short.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +365 (21.5%)
- Best Available Odds: +323 at Kalshi
5. Coby Mayo Home Run Prop vs. Jacob Lopez
Mayo rounds out the top five with a 7.3 score, 21.2% probability and +372 fair odds.
His 24% barrel rate over the past month is up sharply from an already strong 17.9% season mark. Lopez throws his slider 34% of the time, and that is Mayo's best matchup pitch. He also benefits from the same warm, wind-aided conditions at Sutter Health Park as Muncy.
Mayo's projection is legitimate, but +325 at Hard Rock Bet is too short relative to the market consensus. Like Muncy, he profiles better as a home run prediction than a bet at the available odds.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +372 (21.2%)
- Best Available Odds: +325 at Hard Rock Bet
Best +EV Home Run Props Today
RotoBombs compares each hitter's projected home run probability with the sportsbook market's consensus probability. A positive edge means the model believes the market is undervaluing that hitter — not simply that one sportsbook is hanging a bigger number.
Only 12 of the 41 hitters graded Lean or better with a live price pass that test today. Here are the most notable values:
| Player | Matchup | RotoBombs Score | Best Odds | Model Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy White | vs. BAL | 5.9 | +852 at Novig | +6.9 pts |
| Mickey Gasper | vs. NYY | 6.5 | +725 | +6.1 pts |
| Shay Whitcomb | vs. AZ | 5.4 | +900 | +5.9 pts |
| Zac Veen | vs. ATL | 5.2 | +850 | +4.5 pts |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | vs. TB | 7.9 | +450 at BetMGM | +2.5 pts |
| Yandy Díaz | vs. SD | 5.3 | +707 at Kalshi | +1.7 pts |
Tommy White owns the largest model-versus-market edge on the slate. He ranks only 27th by raw score, but his +852 price at Novig is 6.9 percentage points better than the market consensus and carries a projected return of $69.20 per $100 wagered.
Mickey Gasper and Shay Whitcomb also offer substantial value, though neither had full lineup certainty at publication. Confirm both are starting before betting their home run props.
The difference between projection and price matters. Muncy, Caminero, Mayo and Matt Olson all grade Elite in the model but fail the consensus value check. Tatis and Bauers are the only two hitters among the six highest raw scores who also clear the market threshold.
Other MLB Home Run Picks to Consider
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Casey Mize
Kenny Piper (6.9) and Ryan Vilade (6.6) both grade Strong, but neither had a live home run prop at publication. Yandy Díaz grades Lean at 5.3, yet his +707 price at Kalshi makes him the only Rays hitter to pass the model's +EV filter.
Athletics vs. Brandon Young
Brian Serven grades Strong at 7.0 without a live price. Zack Gelof also grades Strong at 6.3, but his +425 number falls just short of the value threshold. Tommy White is the preferred betting option because his +852 price creates the largest edge on the entire slate.
Minnesota Twins vs. Luis Castillo
Four Twins grade Lean or better. Royce Lewis (5.9), Josh Bell (5.9) and Kody Clemens (6.2) miss the consensus value threshold at their available prices. Ryan Jeffers (5.6) clears it at +568.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Jared Jones
Jordan Walker (5.7) and Joshua Báez (5.7) both qualify as +EV home run props at +646 and +617, respectively. Blaze Jordan (5.4) also grades Lean but did not have a live price at publication.
My Favorite Home Run Bet Today
Fernando Tatis Jr. to hit a home run at +450 at BetMGM is my favorite bet on Friday's slate.
Tatis and Caminero have nearly identical raw projections, but only Tatis offers a playable market price. He clears the model's consensus threshold by 2.5 percentage points, owns the top score on the board and enters with his best contact stretch of the season.
The zone-location matchup is essentially neutral, and his lineup spot still needs to be confirmed. Even with those caveats, Tatis provides the cleanest blend of power, matchup and price among today's home run props.
Use the RotoBombs Home Run Props Tool
Use RotoBombs to compare MLB home run predictions, fair odds and sportsbook prices for every hitter on the slate. Add any player to My HR Picks, enter the odds available at your sportsbook and the tool will calculate the edge for that specific bet.
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Today's Full MLB Slate
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Starting Pitchers | Lineup Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN at CHC | 2:20 p.m. | Rhett Lowder vs. David Peterson | Projected |
| LAD at DET | 6:40 p.m. | Tarik Skubal vs. Drew Anderson | Projected |
| MIA at WSH | 6:45 p.m. | Eury Pérez vs. Jackson Kent | Projected |
| SD at TB | 7:10 p.m. | Casey Mize vs. Shane McClanahan | Projected |
| KC at CLE | 7:10 p.m. | Michael Wacha vs. Tanner Bibee | Projected |
| HOU at NYM | 7:10 p.m. | Hunter Brown vs. Christian Scott | Projected |
| SEA at TOR | 7:15 p.m. | Emerson Hancock vs. Dylan Cease | Projected |
| COL at ATL | 7:15 p.m. | Tomoyuki Sugano vs. Grant Holmes | Projected |
| BOS at NYY | 7:15 p.m. | Patrick Sandoval vs. Cam Schlittler | Projected |
| TEX at MIL | 7:40 p.m. | Cody Bradford vs. Logan Henderson | Projected |
| CWS at MIN | 8:10 p.m. | Luis Castillo vs. Dean Kremer | Projected |
| PIT at STL | 8:15 p.m. | Jared Jones vs. Quinn Mathews | Projected |
| PHI at LAA | 9:38 p.m. | Andrew Painter vs. Reid Detmers | Projected |
| BAL at ATH | 9:40 p.m. | Brandon Young vs. Jacob Lopez | Projected |
| AZ at SF | 10:15 p.m. | Kohl Drake vs. Blade Tidwell | Projected |
"Projected" means MLB hasn't officially posted that lineup yet as of this writing — RotoBombs is running on our best estimate of tonight's order, not a confirmed card. For live confirmations, check RotoWire's MLB Daily Lineups page and MLB Weather page.
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