Looking for the best home run props today? Wednesday's slate spans 15 games, from a 1:10 p.m. ET matinee between the Twins and Tigers in Detroit through a 10:10 p.m. ET finale between the Reds and Dodgers in Los Angeles.
Only one hitter grades Elite tonight — Milwaukee's Jake Bauers — and no tracked sportsbook has posted a price on him yet. Below him, the board's entire Strong tier funnels into just three games: three Pirates bats stack up against Shota Imanaga at Wrigley Field, Bauers is joined by a second Brewer against Andrew Abbott, and two Mariners face Jeffrey Springs out in Sacramento.
Below are our top MLB home run predictions, the best model-versus-market values, and my favorite home run bet for Friday, September 11.
Best Home Run Predictions Today (Sep. 11)
1. Jake Bauers Home Run Prop vs. Andrew Abbott
Bauers grades Elite at 9.3, with a 26.1% probability and +283 fair odds — the top score on tonight's 15-game slate, and the only Elite-tier name on the board.
His barrel rate has actually cooled to 8% over his last 30 days, down from a 10.2% season mark, but Abbott's fastball — 45% of his mix — is the pitch Bauers has done the most damage against, and the model still rates the matchup and opportunity here as the board's best. American Family Field's forecast tonight (74°F, wind blowing in) trims some carry off the ball.
No tracked sportsbook has posted a price on Bauers yet, so there's no market gap to point to tonight — worth checking back as odds populate closer to first pitch.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +283 (26.1%)
- Best Available Odds: not yet posted by a tracked sportsbook
2. Dominic Canzone Home Run Prop vs. Jeffrey Springs
Canzone grades Strong at 7.1, with a 20.8% probability and +381 fair odds.
His exit velocity has climbed to 91.2 mph over his last 30 days, up from 89.4 mph for the season, part of a rising trend over that stretch. Springs' changeup, thrown about a quarter of the time, is the pitch he's handled best, though the fastball — his most common offering at 44% — is more of a soft spot. Sutter Health Park's forecast tonight (84°F, 11 mph blowing out) projects over 14 feet of extra carry, the biggest weather boost on the board.
+380 at Polymarket falls 1.4 percentage points short of the model's consensus threshold — the market has essentially priced this one correctly already.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +381 (20.8%)
- Best Available Odds: +380 at Polymarket
3. Junior Caminero Home Run Prop vs. Miguel Ullola
Caminero grades Strong at 7.0, with a 20.5% probability and +388 fair odds.
His barrel rate has jumped to 16% over his last 30 days, up from a 10.6% season mark, and Ullola leans on his fastball an extreme 74% of the time — easily the highest single-pitch usage rate of any starter on tonight's board — which happens to be the pitch Caminero has hurt most.
+323 at Kalshi falls 5.5 percentage points short of the model's consensus threshold, the widest gap in the market's favor among tonight's top five.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +388 (20.5%)
- Best Available Odds: +323 at Kalshi
4. Esmerlyn Valdez Home Run Prop vs. Shota Imanaga
Valdez grades Strong at 6.9, with a 20.2% probability and +395 fair odds — the first of three Pirates bats plugged into tonight's Wrigley Field matchup with Imanaga.
His barrel rate has climbed to 16% over the last 30 days, up from 11.1% for the season, with his exit velocity holding above 92 mph in both windows. Imanaga's fastball, 41% of his mix, is the pitch Valdez has handled best.
+384 at DraftKings falls 2.0 percentage points short of the model's consensus threshold.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +395 (20.2%)
- Best Available Odds: +384 at DraftKings
5. Bryan Reynolds Home Run Prop vs. Shota Imanaga
Reynolds grades Strong at 6.6, with a 19.5% probability and +412 fair odds — the second Pirate tied to tonight's Imanaga matchup, and riding the hottest bat of anyone in the top eight.
His barrel rate has spiked to 24% over his last 30 days, nearly double his 12.9% season mark, and his exit velocity has climbed to 96.1 mph in that same stretch. The same Imanaga fastball working for Valdez above is working for him too; the splitter, thrown about a third of the time, is the one caution.
+550 at BetMGM clears the model's threshold by 3.4 percentage points — the best real, bettable value among tonight's top five.
- RotoBombs Fair Odds: +412 (19.5%)
- Best Available Odds: +550 at BetMGM
Best +EV Home Run Props Today
RotoBombs compares each hitter's projected home run probability with the sportsbook market's consensus probability. A positive edge means the model believes the market is undervaluing that hitter — not simply that one sportsbook is hanging a bigger number.
Rafael Flores Jr. rounds out the Pirates' Wrigley stack at +2.2 points, one more real angle in the same game as Valdez and Reynolds above. Here are the best values further down the board:
| Player | Matchup | RotoBombs Score | Best Odds | Model Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | vs. MIL | 6.2 (Lean) | +809 at Novig | +6.3 pts |
| Travis Bazzana | vs. MIN | 5.2 (Lean) | +953 at Novig | +4.7 pts |
| Jake Rogers | vs. STL | 5.2 (Lean) | +800 at FanDuel | +3.7 pts |
| Yohandy Morales | vs. LAA | 5.9 (Lean) | +780 at DraftKings | +3.1 pts |
| Teoscar Hernández | vs. MIA | 5.2 (Lean) | +700 at Novig | +2.4 pts |
| Garrett Mitchell | vs. CIN | 5.2 (Lean) | +669 at Novig | +2.2 pts |
Tyler Stephenson owns the widest gap on the board outside the top five, riding the same Dustin May matchup as teammate Elly De La Cruz and Milwaukee's Garrett Mitchell from the other side. Travis Bazzana and Cleveland teammate Chase DeLauter give the Guardians two looks at a shaky Twins bullpen arm in Taj Bradley.
Other MLB Home Run Picks to Consider
Reds at Brewers (mutual vulnerable arms)
Bauers and Christian Yelich lead the Brewers' side of this game above, with Garrett Mitchell adding a third Milwaukee look underneath them. Cincinnati answers back against Dustin May: catcher Tyler Stephenson and shortstop Elly De La Cruz both carry real angles, with Stephenson's +809 Novig price the standout value on the board.
Mets at Yankees (mutual vulnerable arms)
Carlos Rodon and Nolan McLean both drew soft matchups Friday. Mark Vientos grades Strong at 6.3 for the Mets against Rodon, while New York counters with Spencer Jones and Luis García Jr. against McLean — four total bats with a real look in this one, plus Bo Bichette rounding out the Mets' side at a longer price.
Guardians at Twins (Taj Bradley)
Chase DeLauter and Travis Bazzana both carry real edges against Bradley, at +600 BetMGM and +953 Novig respectively — the extra length on Bazzana's price makes his the better value of the two.
White Sox at Cardinals (Matthew Liberatore)
Randal Grichuk and Jake Rogers both grade Lean against Liberatore, with Rogers' +800 FanDuel price clearing the model's threshold by 3.7 points.
My Favorite Home Run Bet Today
Bryan Reynolds to hit a home run at +550 at BetMGM is my favorite bet on Friday's slate.
He's the highest-scoring hitter on the board with an actual market price attached — Jake Bauers grades higher, but no sportsbook has priced him yet, so there's nothing to bet there. Reynolds is riding the hottest recent stretch of anyone in the top eight, with his barrel rate nearly doubling to 24% and his exit velocity jumping to 96.1 mph over the last 30 days, and the same Imanaga fastball that's working for his two Pittsburgh teammates is working for him too. The price still sits 3.4 percentage points above what the model considers fair.
Valdez and Flores Jr. offer the same Wrigley Field read at different price points, for bettors who'd rather spread the exposure across all three Pirates.
Use the RotoBombs Home Run Props Tool
Use RotoBombs to compare MLB home run predictions, fair odds and sportsbook prices for every hitter on the slate. Add any player to My HR Picks, enter the odds available at your sportsbook and the tool will calculate the edge for that specific bet.
Our daily home run picks are free. A RotoWire All-Access membership also includes fantasy football tools, the Fantasy Football Draft Kit and the DFS lineup optimizer. Pair it with ProBets to track your home run props, NFL bets and DFS action in one place.
Today's Full MLB Slate
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Starting Pitchers | Lineup Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT at CHC | 2:20 p.m. | Wilber Dotel vs. Shota Imanaga | Projected |
| COL at DET | 6:40 p.m. | Mason Adams vs. Framber Valdez | Projected |
| LAA at WSH | 6:45 p.m. | Yusei Kikuchi vs. Cade Cavalli | Projected |
| NYM at NYY | 7:05 p.m. | Nolan McLean vs. Carlos Rodon | Projected |
| BAL at TOR | 7:07 p.m. | Chris Bassitt vs. Max Scherzer | Projected |
| KC at BOS | 7:10 p.m. | Seth Lugo vs. Sonny Gray | Projected |
| HOU at TB | 7:10 p.m. | Miguel Ullola vs. Drew Rasmussen | Projected |
| LAD at MIA | 7:10 p.m. | Blake Snell vs. Ryan Gusto | Projected |
| PHI at ATL | 7:15 p.m. | Aaron Nola vs. Chris Sale | Projected |
| CIN at MIL | 7:45 p.m. | Andrew Abbott vs. Dustin May | Projected |
| CLE at MIN | 8:10 p.m. | Parker Messick vs. Taj Bradley | Projected |
| CWS at STL | 8:15 p.m. | Anthony Kay vs. Matthew Liberatore | Projected |
| TEX at AZ | 9:40 p.m. | MacKenzie Gore vs. Merrill Kelly | Projected |
| SEA at ATH | 9:40 p.m. | George Kirby vs. Jeffrey Springs | Projected |
| SD at SF | 10:15 p.m. | Robbie Ray vs. Anthony Molina | Projected |
"Projected" means MLB hasn't officially posted that lineup yet as of this writing — RotoBombs is running on our best estimate of tonight's order, not a confirmed card. For live confirmations, check RotoWire's MLB Daily Lineups page and MLB Weather page.
Responsible Gambling While Betting Home Run Props Today
It's important to remember to gamble responsibly. Our model provides home run predictions — not guarantees. RotoWire, along with the sportsbooks referenced in this article, are committed to promoting safe and responsible gambling. If you have any questions or concerns about your ability to gamble responsibly, please consider reaching out to the National Council for Problem Gambling (NCPG) or the International Center for Responsible Gaming (ICRG). Both organizations are dedicated to providing support and advocacy for individuals who may need it.
Must be 21+ and present in an eligible state to bet. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Terms and conditions apply. See each sportsbook for full offer details.
