Looking for the best home run props today? Friday's slate spans 15 games, from a pair of 6:40 p.m. ET starts through a 10:15 p.m. ET finale between the Giants and Dodgers at Dodger Stadium.
Pete Crow-Armstrong is sitting on the highest score we've tracked on this board in weeks: a 10.0 against Reds rookie Chase Burns, more than two and a half points clear of anyone else tonight. He's not alone — the Cubs are stacking five hitters into this one game against Burns, with Michael Conforto, Ian Happ, Michael Busch and Pedro Ramírez all carrying real scores of their own.
Below are our top MLB home run predictions, the best model-versus-market values, and my favorite home run bet for Friday, September 18.
Best Home Run Predictions Today (Sep. 18)
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong Home Run Prop vs. Chase Burns
Crow-Armstrong grades Elite at 10.0, with a 30.0% probability and +233 fair odds — the single highest score on the board all month, more than two and a half points clear of second place.
His exit velocity has jumped to 96.2 mph over his last 30 days, well above an already-strong 92.9 mph season mark, and Burns throws his fastball 56% of the time — the exact pitch Crow-Armstrong has punished most. Great American Ball Park's forecast tonight (80°F, crosswind) projects a hefty 14 feet of extra carry.
The market has actually caught up almost entirely, though: +277 at Novig clears the model's threshold by just 0.4 percentage points — the score is enormous, but there isn't much price value left on top of it.
RotoBombs Fair Odds: +233 (30.0%)Best Available Odds: +277 at Novig
2. Michael Conforto Home Run Prop vs. Chase Burns
Conforto grades Elite at 7.4, with a 21.5% probability and +366 fair odds — the second of five Cubs bats plugged into tonight's Burns matchup.
His underlying numbers have actually cooled — an 86.8 mph exit velocity over his last 30 days on a 4% barrel rate, both below his already modest season marks — but the same 56%-usage fastball edge and a vulnerable, unconfirmed Reds rookie carry the score regardless.
+566 at DraftKings clears the model's threshold by 5.6 percentage points — the widest gap of any Cub in this game.
RotoBombs Fair Odds: +366 (21.5%)Best Available Odds: +566 at DraftKings
3. Ian Happ Home Run Prop vs. Chase Burns
Happ grades Strong at 6.8, with a 20.1% probability and +398 fair odds.
His exit velocity has climbed to 94.5 mph over his last 30 days, up from 89.8 mph for the season, and the same fastball edge working for his teammates applies here too. Burns' slider, thrown close to 40% of the time, is the one real caution.
+471 at Kalshi clears the model's threshold by 1.0 percentage point.
RotoBombs Fair Odds: +398 (20.1%)Best Available Odds: +471 at Kalshi
4. Emmanuel Rodríguez Home Run Prop vs. Grayson Rodriguez
Rodríguez grades Strong at 6.8, with a 19.9% probability and +403 fair odds.
He carries a 26.7% barrel rate and a 96 mph average exit velocity in both the season and last-30-day windows — genuinely elite power with no cooling trend attached — and Grayson Rodriguez throws his fastball just over half the time, the pitch Minnesota's Rodríguez has done the most damage against. Angel Stadium's forecast tonight (75°F, wind blowing out to center) adds roughly 12 feet of carry.
+650 at Hard Rock clears the model's threshold by 5.5 percentage points — the second-widest gap on tonight's board.
RotoBombs Fair Odds: +403 (19.9%)Best Available Odds: +650 at Hard Rock
5. Cal Raleigh Home Run Prop vs. Gabriel Hughes
Raleigh grades Strong at 6.7, with a 19.7% probability and +407 fair odds.
His power profile remains real — a 22.6% season barrel rate and elite bat speed — even though his recent form has cooled to a 91.4 mph average exit velocity and a 12% barrel rate over the last month. Hughes' fastball, thrown about half the time, is the pitch he's hurt most; the changeup is the clear caution.
The market has already moved past it, though: +301 at Polymarket falls 6.9 percentage points short of the model's consensus threshold — the widest gap in the market's favor among tonight's top five.
RotoBombs Fair Odds: +407 (19.7%)Best Available Odds: +301 at Polymarket
Best +EV Home Run Props Today
RotoBombs compares each hitter's projected home run probability with the sportsbook market's consensus probability. A positive edge means the model believes the market is undervaluing that hitter — not simply that one sportsbook is hanging a bigger number.
Pedro Ramírez gives the Cubs a fifth angle against Burns at the longest price of the bunch. Here are the best values further down the board:
| Player | Matchup | RotoBombs Score | Best Odds | Model Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Sogard | vs. TB | 5.2 (Lean) | +1150 at BetMGM | +6.4 pts |
| Grant McCray | vs. LAD | 5.7 (Lean) | +950 at Caesars | +6.2 pts |
| Jordan Lawlar | vs. NYY | 5.5 (Lean) | +950 at Caesars | +6.2 pts |
| Jeremiah Jackson | vs. MIL | 5.1 (Pass) | +1000 at DraftKings | +5.9 pts |
| Jonathan Aranda | vs. BOS | 5.4 (Lean) | +900 at Novig | +5.5 pts |
| Pedro Ramírez | vs. CIN | 5.6 (Lean) | +810 at Pinnacle | +4.8 pts |
Nick Sogard's +1150 at BetMGM is the single longest price on the entire board tonight, in the same Red Sox-Rays game as teammate Jonathan Aranda on the other side. Grant McCray and Jordan Lawlar both check in at the exact same edge, riding two of the softer pitching matchups on the slate in Tyler Glasnow's home start and Gerrit Cole's road trip to Arizona.
Other MLB Home Run Picks to Consider
Yankees at Diamondbacks (Gerrit Cole)
Arizona counters a tough Cole matchup with three real looks: Jordan Lawlar's +950 Caesars price leads the way above, with Gabriel Moreno (+4.4 points, +800 Hard Rock) and Lars Nootbaar (a smaller +1.3-point edge at +650 BetMGM) rounding out the group.
Mariners at Rockies (mutual vulnerable arms)
Raleigh headlines Seattle's side above, and Colorado answers back against Bryan Woo with four separate angles: Jake McCarthy, Cole Carrigg, Adael Amador and TJ Rumfield all carry real scores, topped by McCarthy's +800 Hard Rock price.
Red Sox at Rays (mutual vulnerable arms)
Nick Sogard and Jahmai Jones both give Boston a look at Ian Seymour, while Tampa Bay's Jonathan Aranda answers back against Ranger Suárez — three real angles across the two lineups in this one.
Brewers at Orioles (mutual vulnerable arms)
Jake Bauers grades Strong for Milwaukee against Cade Povich, and Baltimore counters against Dustin May with Pete Alonso and Jeremiah Jackson, the latter carrying the second-longest price on tonight's board at +1000 DraftKings.
My Favorite Home Run Bet Today
Michael Conforto to hit a home run at +566 at DraftKings is my favorite bet on Friday's slate.
Crow-Armstrong owns the board's best score by a wide margin, but the market has already closed almost the entire gap on him — there's barely half a point of value left. Conforto, his teammate in the same Chase Burns matchup, still carries a real 5.6-point edge, backed by the same fastball-heavy look at an unconfirmed rookie starter and Great American Ball Park's 14 feet of extra carry tonight. His own recent underlying numbers have cooled, but the model still likes the matchup and opportunity here plenty.
Happ and Emmanuel Rodríguez offer the next-best combination of score and price for bettors who'd rather spread the exposure.
Use the RotoBombs Home Run Props Tool
Use RotoBombs to compare MLB home run predictions, fair odds and sportsbook prices for every hitter on the slate. Add any player to My HR Picks, enter the odds available at your sportsbook and the tool will calculate the edge for that specific bet.
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Today's Full MLB Slate
| Matchup | Time (ET) | Starting Pitchers | Lineup Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHC at CIN | 6:40 p.m. | Clay Holmes vs. Chase Burns | Projected |
| KC at PIT | 6:40 p.m. | Randy Dobnak vs. Paul Skenes | Projected |
| MIL at BAL | 7:05 p.m. | Dustin May vs. Cade Povich | Projected |
| BOS at TB | 7:10 p.m. | Ranger Suárez vs. Ian Seymour | Projected |
| ATH at CLE | 7:10 p.m. | Mason Barnett vs. Daniel Espino | Projected |
| PHI at NYM | 7:15 p.m. | Jose Urquidy vs. Zac Thornton | Projected |
| DET at CWS | 7:40 p.m. | Andrew Sears vs. David Sandlin | Projected |
| TOR at TEX | 8:05 p.m. | Dylan Cease vs. Kumar Rocker | Projected |
| SEA at COL | 8:10 p.m. | Bryan Woo vs. Gabriel Hughes | Projected |
| ATL at HOU | 8:10 p.m. | Tyler Mahle vs. Peter Lambert | Projected |
| WSH at STL | 8:15 p.m. | Cade Cavalli vs. Kyle Leahy | Projected |
| MIN at LAA | 9:38 p.m. | Connor Prielipp vs. Grayson Rodriguez | Projected |
| NYY at AZ | 9:40 p.m. | Gerrit Cole vs. Eduardo Rodriguez | Projected |
| MIA at SD | 9:40 p.m. | Tyler Phillips vs. Nick Pivetta | Projected |
| SF at LAD | 10:15 p.m. | Cesar Perdomo vs. Tyler Glasnow | Projected |
"Projected" means MLB hasn't officially posted that lineup yet as of this writing — RotoBombs is running on our best estimate of tonight's order, not a confirmed card. For live confirmations, check RotoWire's MLB Daily Lineups page and MLB Weather page.
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